North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

[Weather-history]

47 minutes ago, severe snowstorm said:

 

 What could possibly go wrong?

The Welsh part swings NNW into the Irish sea and the Dorset part pulls NNE,  goes east of the Pennines and this region is  between the two.  That's how negative in expectations  I have become when it comes to thunder for here.

[Chris.R]

10 minutes ago, dodge said:

Well the first front ahead of the main storm batch was a weakening front and has virtually evaporated into nothing after passing through Stoke but there's more spicy activity now showing down south but maybe that too will weaken a little by the time it hits yours truly...hope not.

I think that was just the warm front with the juicy air behind it.

[severe snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The Welsh part swings NNW into the Irish sea and the Dorset part pulls NNE,  goes east of the Pennines and this region is  between the two.  That's how negative in expectations  I have become when it comes to thunder for here.

Yep, wouldn't surprise me at all. I have very little expectation for later given how poor this year has been for storms in this area. There is a nasty gap between the two main areas of storms right now. We need that to fill, then I may raise half an eyebrow.

[Frost HoIIow]

Fantastic storms across the south coast, please make it up here.

[damianslaw]

13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The Welsh part swings NNW into the Irish sea and the Dorset part pulls NNE,  goes east of the Pennines and this region is  between the two.  That's how negative in expectations  I have become when it comes to thunder for here.

If it is was all snow, no doubt it would do that given it's plain old rain I think we will strike lucky this time. Certainly have the warm air aloft, currently still 20.7 degrees and this will aid instability, the low pressure is slightly closer to our shores as well.

Edited September 5, 2022 by damianslaw

[Weather-history]

12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The Welsh part swings NNW into the Irish sea and the Dorset part pulls NNE,  goes east of the Pennines and this region is  between the two.  That's how negative in expectations  I have become when it comes to thunder for here.

I go further, between a forecast for snow and a forecast for thunder. I give the snow forecast, a greater chance of happening. That's how bad, thunder expectations has got for me, year after year. 

 

[Chris.R]

I think line is starting to fill in. Can’t see how we find a way to miss this. 97 km is the closest so far.

make that 91 km.

[Chris.R]

87 km. Crosby will get it first.

[severe snowstorm]

The storms look very active, so I suppose if we don't get a direct hit, at least there should be a decent light show when it gets dark.

[Chris.R]

It’s going to go into the Irish Sea

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

It’s going to go into the Irish Sea

The first lot on the NW flank yes.

The lot slightly further S & E looks like it'll expand northwards up the marches and into Staffs, Shrops, Cheshire, Manchester etc

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The first lot on the NW flank yes.

The lot slightly further S & E looks like it'll expand northwards up the marches and into Staffs, Shrops, Cheshire, Manchester etc

Yeah I still think we’ll get it eventually it was just annoying to see the first bit too far west.

[carl1980]

Debating whether to go the east lancs road can see North Wales from there

[weatherobsuk]

Met Office Rainfall Forecast has another batch of storms moving north behind the current line which I would assume these are the ones that have developed towards the Channel Isles and will be moving up into Cheshire between midnight and 2am, just something to keep in-mind as once the main action clears there's still the possibility of more into the early hours.

[carl1980]

Just left the house lightning visible to the west heading for east lanks 

[Chris.R]

I’ve been a bit of an idiot. I had my lightning app to only show strikes with an 80 km for the last hour so there is loads more than I thought. Tons in Shropshire/Herefordshire so we should all have some fun soon.

[carl1980]

Sat in a lay by in knowsley looking over Liverpool the sky is flashing not very frequent thought 

[Rush2019]

I'm  up on my vantage point, lots of pink lightning and 2 CGs way out in the distance NW of Macc.  Some flashes more westerly too, orange ones.

[Mark.C]

Just now, carl1980 said:

Sat in a lay by in knowsley looking over Liverpool the sky is flashing not very frequent thought 

I saw one distant flash about 5 minutes ago looking towards North Wales 

[carl1980]

Seems to have died off

[Rush2019]

Ooof, yes, just looked at the radar  got to be the N.Wales ones I've been watching.  Looks like it's all stopped.

[Rush2019]

The only flashing I can see now is from the aircraft coming into land at the airport, moody late evening sky above it.

[Chris.R]

Can still hear loads on the radio further away and the occasional close one and there’s loads to the south so still fine.

[severe snowstorm]

The storm over Shropshire was looking good, but lightning seems to have died off now. That's a shame as it seemed to have legs having tracked all the way up from the South Coast.

[SP1986]

Saw some large flashes of lightning over Wales before.. no doubt orographically forced by the Carneddau and Glyderau range, I even heard some distant thunder too but that's all stopped now. 

I'd be extremely surprised if any storms kicked off here, most of the rainfall radar lightning strikes have died out east of the Welsh border.