Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just saw lightning over Guildford way

[Azazel]

9 minutes ago, Cornishdave said:

I don’t recall seeing anywhere that’s forecasted severe storms to break out? Have I missed something? Seems to be much disappointment on here for an event that wasn’t really forecast? I think they all went with possible thundery outbreaks as the cold front moves in, that’s pretty much what’s happened? I’m in the southwest and the heatwave hasn’t ended, the front passed through earlier with a little rain and convection but after that skies are clear and it’s 29 degrees.

I think it’s because there is some perception that heatwaves always used to go out with a bang. 
 

At a rudimentary level, you would think cooler air coming in from the west would undercut the hot air and force it upwards into explosive convection - but obviously there are a myriad of complex factors that also contribute.

Could also be confirmation bias but I don’t remember many hot spells just ‘ending’ the way they have over the past 5-6 years. 

[Supacell]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It could possibly be those cells that are just getting going around Bristol but they look to be fading on the latest returns.

If I had more confidence I would drive out there. At least I'd escape the heat inside my flat . But my confidence is low based on one model and none of the forecasts going for it.

[Cornishdave]

3 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I think it’s because there is some perception that heatwaves always used to go out with a bang. 
 

At a rudimentary level, you would think cooler air coming in from the west would undercut the hot air and force it upwards into explosive convection - but obviously there are a myriad of complex factors that also contribute.

Could also be confirmation bias but I don’t remember many hot spells just ‘ending’ the way they have over the past 5-6 years. 

Agree and i get its disappointing for some but I feel many on here set themselves up for disappointment for something that was never really on the cards! Still plenty of summer left so fingers crossed for more storm opportunities 

[AcceptedPlanet]

Cloud seems to be bubbling up here and some local showers appearing from nowhere hope they build as been 36.2 here today 

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Supacell said:

If I had more confidence I would drive out there. At least I'd escape the heat inside my flat . But my confidence is low based on one model and none of the forecasts going for it.

With the cold front still way out to the west over Ireland anything can happen as we are all still in the plume.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Well there’s an elevated storm over Guildford at the moment. Just rumbles only saw one weak fork

[Justin1705]

Sferics in south london, however if I didn't check I wouldn't know as radar echoes do not suggest a storm here. Nowcast, eyes to the sky and watch :£)

[Harry]

Atmosphere is definitely trying to make its mind up - just had a few minutes of huge convective raindrops, now dry again! Loving the lightning SW of London - hoping it will migrate! Come on!!

Edited July 19, 2022 by Harry

[AnvilCrawlers]

On 19/07/2022 at 19:46, Azazel said:

I think it’s because there is some perception that heatwaves always used to go out with a bang. 
 

At a rudimentary level, you would think cooler air coming in from the west would undercut the hot air and force it upwards into explosive convection - but obviously there are a myriad of complex factors that also contribute.

Could also be confirmation bias but I don’t remember many hot spells just ‘ending’ the way they have over the past 5-6 years. 

I think we have to except things have changed since how it used to be.I know we don't get the storms like we used and I've learnt to accept it.Just don't expect storms after the heat as it once was.That way you won't be disappointed and if you get one be pleasantly surprised.

[ChannelThunder]

57 minutes ago, Peachy said:

Many cells will start developing in the next hour over much of southern and central England. 

Things are about to get interesting soon.

We're waiting....

[Supacell]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

With the cold front still way out to the west over Ireland anything can happen as we are all still in the plume.

Exactly. Many more hours yet for thunderstorms to break out. The last of the potential unlikely to clear far Eastern parts until late tomorrow.

[Chris.R]

Well would be nice if something does happen tonight but I’m not sure. Will get up in the night to check

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

The skies over towards guildford when those lightnings were happening. There was some mammatus and an anvil head too to my south west

[Lauren]

I mean it feels like the Mother of all storms is going to drop on there but nothing concrete at all on the radar

[Southern Storm]

South central current conditions, 23°c and much fresher than even an hour ago

The wind is quite gusty at times, and we have low level cloud streaming in off the sea #NotFeelingVeryStormy....

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by Southern Storm

[Atmogenic]

A small cell has just formed south of me

[LoveStorms]

I can confirm a thunderstorm is happening right now - I’m in Shepperton.  It’s muggy as anything but the rumbles when they happen are very long.  Pouring down - living the dream. 

[Mark wheeler]

Storm here . Quite frequent lightning . 

[The PIT]

Looks like the SE and Far east of the England the place to be later on.

[Harry]

1 minute ago, Lauren said:

I mean it feels like the Mother of all storms is going to drop on there but nothing concrete at all on the radar

Lightning becoming more prolific to the SW of London @Lauren - I’m ruling out nothing for us

[Saint coolio]

Cooling down here at last. Might even have to put some clothes on.*

 

 

 

*calm down, ladies

[Atmogenic]

expecting this place be a bit more active when the sun sets and the skies become much clearer to see some lightning

[Justin1705]

By the looks of the radar, the storm that has ignited must be the area of 1000kj cape. As mentioned before it's a slither and clears through between 8-10pm. Once this rain has moved through and area of instability and cape passes, unfortunately then this will be over. However having looked there's a good chance. West London, north west London Bedfordshire could be within the fire line. It all depends on cooling aloft, the amount of cape and many others of which I'm not educated to say. Tommorow is the day for storms, cold front moving in, slightly cooler and more in the way of moisture, good old surface based tomo and if I'm being honest this elevated stuff doesn't do justice for me I like a bit of shotgun thunder watching cloud bases. This evaporating rain and distant rumbles don't do it. So I'm all honesty don't give up cos tommorow looks good, of which met have issued a warning for !! So yh tommorow is breakdown day, not today

[Robbie Garrett]

35 minutes ago, Harry said:

Fingers crossed. NMM is my favourite model for storm prediction

Lightning x2  - No Thunder in Zone 1