Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Supacell]

A fresh new thread for a fresh new season.

I would normally start a new thread at the beginning of a new season, but with April looking non-eventful it didn't seem necessary. So, here we are at the start of what is traditionally the first proper month for storms. After what has been a very dry and non-thundery April things don't look too much better going into May, although with a sign of more unsettled weather in the future there are possibilities at least. 

Hopefully things will pick up and for those that want storms we get plenty of storms, plumes and all things convective. On a personal note I am looking forward to getting back out there. Please chat here, but keep it polite.

The old thread if you want to reminisce about days with thunderstorms is below:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/95869-storms-and-convective-discussion-25th-july-2021-onwards/

 

[ChannelThunder]

May this new thread be the starting point for a fantastic 3-4 months of thundery activity; hell, we're owed it after that dire April! 

Looking into the future, there are now at least signs of high pressure establishing itself just to our east, which would finally allow us at least a potential passageway to something plume-like from the south, or at bare minimum some pleasant warmth. This is shown 7+ days out on ECM and GFS, so still a way off. Clutching at straws, but it's got to seen as a positive to see that on the models as opposed to the constant north-easterlies that have been such a persistent theme of late, with their resultant nothing-weather.

 

[Supacell]

If only....

[Eagle Eye]

8 minutes ago, Supacell said:

If only....

First time I've even seen it on the models in my 2 years of looking at them so can't be a bad sign .  Guidance is looking better than recent years at the very least in my opinion, although I'm obviously not the best to ask for this.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hoping we see charts like that cropping up frequently and a trend starting to build. We firstly need that big low to set up out west first, that will be the key. The West based -NAO could prove to be our friend for once! 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Has anybody been watching the models for Wednesday and Thursday in the way of 21 degree weather and strong thunderstorms? Just asking as many forecasts are suggesting it 

also some models are suggesting 1500 Cape!

 

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Wednesday definitely an interesting day in my eyes, a few 100 J/Kg of CAPE overlapped by some relatively strong shear, particularly at upper levels. If convection can reach sufficient heights to tap into this strong shear, then the atmosphere may be supportive a marginally-severe storm particularly where we have the best overlap of CAPE/Shear.

Edited May 2, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[chapmanslade]

Possibility of a plume next week. ECM and GFS firming up on significant WAA into France where the first 30C of the year could be reached. Whether it will reach the UK ..........

[Ben Sainsbury]

5 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

Possibility of a plume next week. ECM and GFS firming up on significant WAA into France where the first 30C of the year could be reached. Whether it will reach the UK ..........

Have also noticed this as of late! Definitely a signal for high pressure to move over Mainland Europe and low pressure to sit out to the west. Very exciting!

[The Tall Weatherman]

6 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

Possibility of a plume next week. ECM and GFS firming up on significant WAA into France where the first 30C of the year could be reached. Whether it will reach the UK ..........

Yeah, lots of runs are going for it especially in the last 24 hours. Let’s just wait and see shall we.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

06z GFS is the absolute dream. Giving me May 2020 vibes but probably slightly better!! All types of storms possible with that. popcorn flash flooders, big hailers and even a MCS would all be possible under that static setup. Wouldn’t even rule out a tornado if the hodographs and upper level winds are supportive. It’s still in fantasy land for now however!!

Edited May 2, 2022 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[ChannelThunder]

15 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

06z GFS is the absolute dream. Giving me May 2020 vibes but probably slightly better!! All types of storms possible with that. popcorn flash flooders, big hailers and even a MCS would all be possible under that static setup. Wouldn’t even rule out a tornado if the hodographs and upper level winds are supportive. It’s still in fantasy land for now however!!

Hot and thundery for basically a whole week if that came off! Such a shame it's in FI. 

[The Tall Weatherman]

My jaw is locked open wide right now 

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

It's getting to a trend now, all depends on what happens earlier of course but something I like to see even though it won't work out anything like this.

[Supacell]

Whether it becomes a reality or not the GFS 6z is a pleasure to look at after the long, long wait for something of interest. It is a long way off but as others have said, a few runs of different models are playing with the scenerio of a thundery plume off the continent, along with a significant increase in temperature of course.

Edited May 2, 2022 by Supacell

[Sunny76]

I don’t think we will experience a severe storm until late May or early June.

[The Tall Weatherman]

We just need to wait for a few days for the models to stiffen up in regards of a hot plume but I have to say if this does happen I think we would be seeing a historical Thunderstorm and heat event for mid May.

[Sunny76]

4 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

We just need to wait for a few days for the models to stiffen up in regards of a hot plume but I have to say if this does happen I think we would be seeing a historical Thunderstorm and heat event for mid May.

I fly on May 7th to Latvia and fly back on Saturday 14th.

I hope I’m not flying into this storm on my way back to London lol.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Shows how desperate for some interesting weather we all are when we're looking at CAPE charts 10+ days out 

[ChannelThunder]

All but gone again one the 12z (just a glancing blow - Kent Clipper!). Like I said earlier, it was all in FI anyway, so JFF. 

[The Tall Weatherman]

13 minutes ago, Lance M said:

All but gone again one the 12z (just a glancing blow - Kent Clipper!). Like I said earlier, it was all in FI anyway, so JFF. 

The GFS ensembles are showing some runs still getting pretty hot but we just have to wait and see.

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

The GFS ensembles are showing some runs still getting pretty hot but we just have to wait and see.

Ah, fair enough, let's hope those runs are on to something

[Mapantz]

A few CZ's possibly setting up in the South tomorrow afternoon. Hefty showers developing, but being marginally unstable, sparks look minimal.

[BrickFielder]

Not really impressed with the storm potential for today and tomorrow and I think cloud tops are likely to be limited. Wind from a north west direction does not often generate the surface temperatures to let convection really bubble up. Some models will under estimate temperatures at this time of year but even so we have had an unusually blocked pattern with winds from the North, East, North West and North East. 

Maybe a slight chance for storms later  in the week although the timing at the moment looks wrong for the UK and better for the Dutch and Irish. Upper level wind divergence combined with a moister and slightly warmer air flow at the surface. Surface winds are not long feeds from the south and early morning is wrong. Further chances maybe Friday before we get winds from the North and East.

With the forecast being a few days out then things can speed up or slow down. Often models under estimate speed at this time of year, but after heavy blocking models try to pick up speed to quickly. Worth keeping an eye on.

[chapmanslade]

16 hours ago, Lance M said:

All but gone again one the 12z (just a glancing blow - Kent Clipper!). Like I said earlier, it was all in FI anyway, so JFF. 

It is still very much there, just the northern extent of the real heat is varying run to run depending on the Atlantic low. I'm in France next week so looks pretty certain the heat will get as far as me!

My son is currently based in Marrakesh and they are forecast an unusually warm for the time of year 38C for several days next week, so there is plenty of heat to tap into.

Edited May 3, 2022 by chapmanslade