Summer 2022 Chat

[philglossop]

Quick - head to Looe or Polperro Monday and Tuesday

[Summer Sun]

The met office have declared a level 4 national emergency for England between 00:00 on Monday and 00:00 on Wednesday

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/?tab=heatHealth&season=normal#?tab=heatHealth

 

[Methuselah]

I'm sure (well almost sure!) someone posted something along the lines of 'there's nothing about the heatwave on the BBC's website'? Well, I can assure said poster that there most definitely is!

Heatwave: Met Office issues highest extreme heat warning

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The highest alert for parts of England means there is a danger to life amid exceptional heat.

And, just as all this is going down, Mourdant & Truss (does anyone here have a hernia?) are battling it out over who can dispense with HMG's Zero Carbon policy the quickest!

Edited July 15, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Rammie]

I'm pretty much bang in the centre of the red zone. 

[ShinyDave]

Worth noting the details of the warnings.

There's now three areas with warnings. The red one is essentially a London-York-Manchester triangle ignoring the Peak District; that's for Monday and Tuesday.

Then there's two separate non-overlapping amber areas - one for Sunday-Tuesday covering almost all of England and some parts of Wales, one for Monday-Tuesday covering essentially the rest of England and Wales plus parts of southern Scotland. The second of these only projects medium impact, the first has high impact and therefore could be upgraded to red with higher confidence.

Not surprised the Heat-Health Alert upgraded to level 4 at the same time - figured it would be a coordinated move. Notably, it applies to all regions - wondered if there might be an exception or two, but no, every region has the same comments: "Emergency. Hot weather returns this weekend, peaking Monday and Tuesday, with very warm nights likely."

[GokouD]

'Only' 37 where live thank god!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

2 minutes ago, Rammie said:

I'm pretty much bang in the centre of the red zone. 

Perfect Beer Garden weather

[philglossop]

What’s even more interesting that when it breaks by Wednesday the London temps are still programmed to be equal or only 1 degree lower than today. 27c today, 26c on Wednesday. But the nighttime is going to be worst for that red alert area- temps not dropping below 25? Even in Zakynthos in June and July it goes lower than that. 

[Djdazzle]

35 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm sure (well almost sure!) someone posted something along the lines of 'there's nothing about the heatwave on the BBC's website'? Well, I can assure said poster that there most definitely is!

Heatwave: Met Office issues highest extreme heat warning

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The highest alert for parts of England means there is a danger to life amid exceptional heat.

And, just as all this is going down, Mourdant & Truss (does anyone here have a hernia?) are battling it out over who can dispense with HMG's Zero Carbon policy the quickest!

I think I posted my comment before the level 4 was issued.

[kold weather]

I just cannot believe how hot the models are for Tuesday morning.

Even Conservative models are going g for 32c+ by 9am.

For context, the July 2019 heatwave had temps at 9z of about 28-29c.

Unreal.

[Djdazzle]

Surely there will be a "stay at home" instruction issued?

[Snowy L]

Another one for the history books?

[Evening thunder]

Not sure what's up with the Met Office forecasts for the last couple of months but beyond day 2-3, they've been massively underestimating the temperature for Exeter, and only 23C is forecast for this spell:

Exeter isn't too far from the south coast but no way will it only reach 23C. People must be confused seeing an 'extreme heat warning' for 23C too...

It's like the automated system thinks Exeter is in the sea, or it's drawn from a low resolution model that smooths the effect of the sea. It didn't use to be like this though, you'd think they'd notice as they are based there.

My location that's closer to the south coast is showing 28C. 

Having said that, it looks increasingly likely that Monday will be the only exceptional day in the SW, although still exceptional in itself. The latest GFS/ECM has cooler surface air arriving by early morning here so we wouldn't actually get an exceptional min down here going by the 0900-0900 hours.

Edited July 15, 2022 by Evening thunder

[Djdazzle]

Taken from Met Office site:

 

What to expect

Population-wide adverse health effects experienced, not limited to those most vulnerable to extreme heat, leading to serious illness or danger to life. Government advice is that 999 services should be used in emergencies only; seek advice from 111 if you need non-emergency health advice.

Substantial changes in working practices and daily routines will be required

High risk of failure of heat-sensitive systems and equipment, potentially leading to localised loss of power and other essential services, such as water or mobile phone services

Significantly more people visiting coastal areas, lakes and rivers, leading to an increased risk of water safety incidents

Delays on roads and road closures, along with delays and cancellations to rail and air travel, with significant welfare issues for those who experience even moderate delays

[h2005__uk__]

7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Surely there will be a "stay at home" instruction issued?

This isn't China!

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

This isn't China!

No - but remember Covid . . .

The last thing we need are people driving around unnecessarily, breaking down and putting strain on the emergency services. Or people being stuck underground in London.

[Summer Sun]

Met Éireann have issued a Status Yellow alert for exceptionally warm weather between 6am Sunday and 9pm Tuesday.

[Raenor Shine]

Just received 2 messages from my children's schools cancelling end of term events - sports day, sponsored walk and Alton Towers trip. Still expected in school though but non uniform and advice for the heat has been provided.

Good to see places taking the warnings seriously. Expect to see more over the weekend.

[Methuselah]

Here's the most recent update from the Met Office. It's not pleasant viewing. Unless, of course, you are either a mad dog or an Englishman!

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Mark Smithy]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Models still look fine for Tuesday to smash records. Just don’t want a further push east!

Please please please push further east and much faster.

The BBC weather forecast literally just said "unfortunately several thousand people will die."

BBC Weather - Home

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC Weather Centre.

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Going to feel like a washing machine out there

[ShinyDave]

42 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

No - but remember Covid . . .

The last thing we need are people driving around unnecessarily, breaking down and putting strain on the emergency services. Or people being stuck underground in London.

Certainly 40C with British infrastructure is disruptive enough to warrant substantial intervention. Of course, the difference between this and COVID - or even storms like Eunice, the red warning for which caused one high-profile Twitter conspiracist to complain about the idea of a "weather lockdown" - is that for millions of people, this danger is actually worsened by staying at home. That is another complicating factor in any emergency response plan.

[ChezWeather]

7 minutes ago, SunnyPlease said:

I’m laughing because the figure is wildly scaremongering and wrong. Not even thousands of people died in the prolonged heatwave in France in 2003 

These temps are extreme yes, but it’s literally two days, not two weeks. There will be deaths, yes, but you’re talking in the tens, or at worst, hundreds. Not even close to seven thousand 

Take your false info back to twitter please.

The heatwave of 2003

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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More than 20,000 people died after a record-breaking heatwave left Europe sweltering in August 2003.

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

50 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

No - but remember Covid . . .

The last thing we need are people driving around unnecessarily, breaking down and putting strain on the emergency services. Or people being stuck underground in London.

Don’t compare heat to COVID. Heat is on a whole different level dangerous if kept out in it.