Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, Don said:

You and your bloomin summer!!  About time it cooled down innit?! 

looks like will be into single digit day time highs in about weeks or so time and edging below freezing at night..so back to normal for the first time in 2 months .

[damianslaw]

Noting good leaf colour change at present. However, we've yet to have a good frost, and generally the best colours come after one, provided the wind doesn't blow the leaves off beforehand.

As a general observation much vegetation is in quite a stressed state due to the very dry summer, and leaves looked quite shrivelled and lacklustre through much of August. I wouldn't say we have quite reached the point in which Autumn rushes away with itself, the next week looks mild and no frost. Normally its around mid October when that rush sets in...  mid Oct to mid Nov is a period of great change in the countryside.. akin to mid April to mid May when everything bursts into life. That first day that struggles to make double figures even when sunny normally for me marks that change, and nowadays often takes until mid October. The foreseeable looks like delivering 12-16 degree maxes.. 

Edited October 3, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

looks like will be into single digit day time highs in about weeks or so time and edging below freezing at night..so back to normal for the first time in 2 months .

I've heard it's not uncommon for parts of Canada to go from summer like weather to freezing cold and snow within a day or so?!

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Noting good leaf colour change at present. However, we've yet to have a good frost, and generally the best colours come after one, provided the wind doesn't blow the leaves off beforehand.

As a general observation much vegetation is in quite a stressed state due to the very dry summer, and leaves looked quite shrivelled and lacklustre through much of August. I wouldn't say we have quite reached the point in which Autumn rushes away with itself, the next week looks mild and no frost. Normally its around mid October when that rush sets in...  mid Oct to mid Nov is a period of great change in the countryside.. akin to mid April to mid May when everything bursts into life. That first day that struggles to make double figures even when sunny normally for me marks that change, and nowadays often takes until mid October. The foreseeable looks like delivering 12-16 degree maxes.. 

I remember in 2001 after the mildest October on record, leaves were still green at the beginning of November!

Edited October 3, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

I've heard it's not uncommon for parts of Canada to go from summer like weather to freezing cold and snow within a day or so?!

I remember in 2001 after the mildest October on record, leaves were still green at the beginning of November!

2006 was perhaps the most delayed Autumn I've known. The last good Autumn for colour was 2018. It varies each year. 

[Don]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

2006 was perhaps the most delayed Autumn I've known. The last good Autumn for colour was 2018. It varies each year. 

Not surprising given September 2006 was the hottest on record, October one of the warmest and November also mild.

[damianslaw]

16 minutes ago, Don said:

Not surprising given September 2006 was the hottest on record, October one of the warmest and November also mild.

I think June 2006 to May 2007 is still the warmest 12 month period on record. 

[Don]

12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I think June 2006 to May 2007 is still the warmest 12 month period on record. 

Yes I think that's correct.  I wonder if 2022 will have a below average month?  It could do something similar to 1995 and there have been a few similarities with that year, particularly around summer.  I'm not sure if there has ever been a year not to record a below average month?

Edited October 3, 2022 by Don

[Weatherman_93]

Mild, very mild. 14c at 5.30am

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I've opened a thread in the longue for anyone affected by SAD who would like to offload or get some support.

[HafrenLMP1]

12 hours ago, Don said:

Not surprising given September 2006 was the hottest on record, October one of the warmest and November also mild.

I can recall going to spectate at a rally in North Wales in early November, with all my usual wet/cold weather gear - and wearing just a t-shirt/ sunglasses for most of the day. Funnily enough, two years later it was run in snow and rather cold....

[BleakMidwinter]

16 hours ago, Don said:

I've heard it's not uncommon for parts of Canada to go from summer like weather to freezing cold and snow within a day or so?!

 

I've seen that happen in the Balkans in 1996 - blazing hot 40Ccentral-south European summer, two days of grey rain, bang into freezing winter...  in September!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

The next 10 days or so are looking very ordinary for the time of the year, with a NW and SE split. No particular cold on the horizon, and no particular warmth either. Just mild with some showers here and there. All very ordinary indeed.  

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[damianslaw]

Met Office going for colder conditions late October and settled. Quite a sudden change.. bring in the mid atlantic high ridging north.. 

[Don]

22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Met Office going for colder conditions late October and settled. Quite a sudden change.. bring in the mid atlantic high ridging north.. 

Yep, yesterday their forecast was for above average temperatures throughout the 2nd half of October.  Lots of twists and turns to come this month?

Edited October 4, 2022 by Don

[TheOgre]

It’s drab out there today. Don’t like this warm, dull and drizzly weather! Bring on the northerlies mid month please. Hopefully it’ll be sunny, fresh and frosty.

[carinthian]

How bizarre, when we get days of rain and cloud over here you get dry settled conditions.   Now is a period of reverse. Horrid looking charts for blighty over the coming days, warm and sunny over here. Nice to have mellow days that show the Autumn colours but I fear the rinse and spin cycle will prolong the mild mid-Autumn as I am now getting anguished about lack of cold prospects currently  shown. Sure your rainfall amounts will soon top up water levels especially NW.

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

A seasonal summer, seasonal autumn now will we have a seasonal snowy winter??!

[Don]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

A seasonal summer, seasonal autumn now will we have a seasonal snowy winter??!

Of course we will, how could you ask such a question?!  

[*Stormforce~beka*]

50 minutes ago, Don said:

Of course we will, how could you ask such a question?!  

That's coz you be more north than me you be!!

[Dorsetbred]

15 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

That's coz you be more north than me you be!!

That's coz you be more north than me you be!!

[East Lancs Rain]

On 01/10/2022 at 19:03, markyo said:

I suggest you have a trip over the Pennies, start with the Woodhead pass, several massive sets up there, all out, come back over the M62, same story.  We need a monsoon to refill them to anything like needed for next summer. Been doing those routes for over 40 years, i have never even seen them close to the levels they are now.

Having had a look on United utilities website yes Pennine sources are very low around 35% but it varies a lot from area to area, some of the other reservoirs aren’t too bad, in fact West Cumbria reservoirs are at 98% capacity. 
 

However after all the rain we’ve had recently, all the reservoirs are now slowly filling up again, especially Carlisle with a 15% increase in one week!

 

As long as this more unsettled pattern continues (which at the moment it appears to be) there is nowt to worry about. 

If you want a wet winter than fair enough. Just don’t complain about the mild temperatures that will come with it.
 

 

On 02/10/2022 at 18:56, Tim Bland said:

Hope we see plenty of this in the months ahead  

I hope we don’t!!! Our energy bills this winter will be expensive enough thank you very much.

On 03/10/2022 at 20:22, carinthian said:

I must admit I do not like that chart from ECM . Rinse and Spin for the UK  and endless mild days over mainland Europe. A familiar cycle that could go on for weeks on end. Hate it .

C

Yeah, not great. It’s a shame the U.K. is so exposed to the Atlantic and we have endure weeks (or even months sometimes) of cloud, wind and rain while most of Europe gets lots of dry, warm, sunny weather. It would be nice to get at least a couple of days of Indian summer (hi teens/low 20’s and sunny) but that is increasingly unlikely now. Once an Atlantic pattern is established it can take a long time for it to shift (winter 2019/20 being a good example). Was hoping to be able to wear shorts one last time this year but it looks like I won’t be doing now. If only the U.K. was a few hundred miles south west the weather would be so much better.

 

Still, things could be worse, at least we didn’t get this pattern during the summer, and the rain will help replenish the reservoirs.

On 03/10/2022 at 21:30, cheeky_monkey said:

looks like will be into single digit day time highs in about weeks or so time and edging below freezing at night..so back to normal for the first time in 2 months .

That will be a bit shock after low-mid 20’s temps. Amazing how quick it changes over there. Meanwhile here the temps have been very consistent, since mid-September temps have been 12-16°C, since I’ve come back from holiday on the 11th Sep I’ve not had a single day reach 20°C or in single digits. Zzzzzzzzzz

On 03/10/2022 at 23:31, damianslaw said:

I think June 2006 to May 2007 is still the warmest 12 month period on record. 

Not surprised. Very warm autumn, exceptionally mild January (CET of over 7°C), warmest April on record.

On 04/10/2022 at 18:13, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

The next 10 days or so are looking very ordinary for the time of the year, with a NW and SE split. No particular cold on the horizon, and no particular warmth either. Just mild with some showers here and there. All very ordinary indeed.  

 

Yes, October is often a boring month, too late for summer warmth, but too early for anything wintery. It is closest to long term averages. At least in April you can anything from snow to 25°C sunshine.

On 04/10/2022 at 19:49, TheOgre said:

It’s drab out there today. Don’t like this warm, dull and drizzly weather! Bring on the northerlies mid month please. Hopefully it’ll be sunny, fresh and frosty.

Make up your mind! Last month you were complaining it was too cold.

2 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

A seasonal summer, seasonal autumn now will we have a seasonal snowy winter??!

Hopefully not. Energy bills are now expensive enough as it is!

[damianslaw]

Reference to west Cumbria reservoirs, think this refers to Ennerdale which serves a very small catchment area - West Cumbria and isn't prone to excess demand. Haweswater and Thirlmere serve much of the Manchester area and consequently the NW region is much less exposed to drought than Yorkshire, the Pennine reservoirs serve them.

We've had a good amount of rain in recent weeks but still below where we should be.

[keithlucky]

Early start to winter onthe way !

[TheOgre]

3 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Make up your mind! Last month you were complaining it was too cold.

I know but it’s October now. I’m more used to the cooler conditions and ready for some colder weather (as long as it’s sunny). That cold in September came as a shock to the system after being so warm for so long

[AderynCoch]

22C and sunny here today. Felt like bliss after the suppressed temperatures of the last few weeks.