Drought Watch

[Skullzrulerz]

51 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

Concerned with the latest GFS run for saturday, with relative humidity levels down to around 15% any wildfire that starts could experience rapid growth amid already tinder-dry conditions 

This really does remind me of the weather conditions for wildfires in California...

[Mapantz]

I received an interesting email today, via my website email address;

Quote

Hello,

I am a PhD student at the University of Bath and I am developing a high-resolution water-quality model for the River Frome in Dorset. Over the next month I am collecting the data to calibrate/validate the model. I'm interested in attaining meteorological data in the catchment area at an hourly resolution to be used as inputs and forcings in the model.

I was wondering if it would be possible to share your data with me? The parameters I'm particularly interested in are:

- Rainfall
- Temp
- Wind speed
- Solar Radiation
- Air pressure
- Sunshine hours (daily)

There's more in the email, but it has some private details.

Quite interesting I thought?!

[minus10]

Incredible picture from Copernicus yesterday of the uk..clearly showing the green nw and brown se, although the brown stretching up into eastern scotland too..

Edited August 11, 2022 by minus10

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Incredible picture from Copernicus yesterday of the uk..clearly showing the green nw and brown se, although the brown stretching up into eastern scotland too..

Brilliant image. Reminds me of the Dec 2010 (I think?) satellite pic, only the exact opposite!

Edited August 11, 2022 by Nick L

[Summer Sun]

A drought is expected to be declared in the South West tomorrow

[Skullzrulerz]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A drought is expected to be declared in the South West tomorrow

I'm surprised that the whole of England isn't in a drought alert.

Basically we can expect a ban here in Cornwall in the coming days/weeks?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Only the South West??! Southern Central must be in drought terms by now with our hose pipe bans surely!!

[minus10]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm surprised that the whole of England isn't in a drought alert.

Basically we can expect a ban here in Cornwall in the coming days/weeks?

Perhaps its to do with the chalk stream aquifers in the se...type of rock that holds more water , however they are under stress. Some water companies extract water from those i think whereas reservoir based supplies are under more stress...

[Summer Sun]

29 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm surprised that the whole of England isn't in a drought alert.

Basically we can expect a ban here in Cornwall in the coming days/weeks?

Hosepipe bans will be part of the restrictions brought in for non-essential domestic and commercial water users

[seb]

The reason for it being the Southwest is very much linked to the fact that the EA can force water companies to impose bans. In most of the the Southeast bans are already in force or are about to be.

Also support for farmers is easier to sort out of a drought is declared and there’s a lot more farming in the SW compared to the SE.

[minus10]

40 minutes ago, seb said:

The reason for it being the Southwest is very much linked to the fact that the EA can force water companies to impose bans. In most of the the Southeast bans are already in force or are about to be.

Also support for farmers is easier to sort out of a drought is declared and there’s a lot more farming in the SW compared to the SE.

Thats interesting Seb. I know i read somewhere that water companies covering chalk aquifer areas were not considering (yet) any bans because there was still enough water ...although getting less..to be able to extract from, including my own..Affinity water. Quite a lot of agricultural land in east anglia..Lincolnshire ..think those areas get their water from reservoirs however stand to be corrected on that one...

[northriding]

4 hours ago, minus10 said:

Incredible picture from Copernicus yesterday of the uk..clearly showing the green nw and brown se, although the brown stretching up into eastern scotland too..

That's a staggering image. The North Yorkshire Moors are pretty much the last green enclave on the eastern flank of the British Isles.

[recklessabandon]

4 hours ago, minus10 said:

Incredible picture from Copernicus yesterday of the uk..clearly showing the green nw and brown se, although the brown stretching up into eastern scotland too..

interesting that you can see a 'finger' arcing north east through Northumberland; that is the Fell Sandstone which is a Principal Aquifer - the last of the water!

[seb]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Thats interesting Seb. I know i read somewhere that water companies covering chalk aquifer areas were not considering (yet) any bans because there was still enough water ...although getting less..to be able to extract from, including my own..Affinity water. Quite a lot of agricultural land in east anglia..Lincolnshire ..think those areas get their water from reservoirs however stand to be corrected on that one...

Yes I think that's right but there are also those that source water from reservoirs and rivers but aren't/weren't considering restrictions but that decision is effectively taken away from them by declaring an official drought.

I am not sure re EA etc. but could well be but Anglian Water says it used 50% reservoirs and 50% aquifers. 

In the SW, Wessex Water gets 75% from groundwater so that doesn't appear to be the issue. Southwest Water on the other hand gets 90% from reservoirs which are at 50% and lower. But they're adamant that they won't impose any restrictions as they say they're resilient due to having increased the number of reservoirs and they're proud to have avoided restrictions since 1996. 

[WeatherArc]

6 hours ago, Skullzrulerz said:

This really does remind me of the weather conditions for wildfires in California...

Me too, I was in California around 2 weeks ago and was very close to the oak fire burning near yosemite. I very much doubt that we could see wildfires that large as our forests are way too small, however the conditions on saturday will be almost the same as over there. Its already been said but people should take extra care in the countryside. These things can grow very fast and be very unpredictable. 

[Nick L]

Sainsbury's have joined a growing list of retailers stopping sales of disposable BBQs...

Sainsbury's to stop sale of disposable barbecues

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The supermarket is joining other chains in removing barbecues from its shelves for safety reasons.

 

[Weather26]

3 hours ago, seb said:

Yes I think that's right but there are also those that source water from reservoirs and rivers but aren't/weren't considering restrictions but that decision is effectively taken away from them by declaring an official drought.

I am not sure re EA etc. but could well be but Anglian Water says it used 50% reservoirs and 50% aquifers. 

In the SW, Wessex Water gets 75% from groundwater so that doesn't appear to be the issue. Southwest Water on the other hand gets 90% from reservoirs which are at 50% and lower. But they're adamant that they won't impose any restrictions as they say they're resilient due to having increased the number of reservoirs and they're proud to have avoided restrictions since 1996. 

Well that will be out the window if it gets declared that the whole of the UK is in drought sooner rather than later.

Edited August 11, 2022 by Weather26

[Skullzrulerz]

6 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

Well that will be out the window if it gets decalred that the whole of the UK is in drought sooner rather than later.

You might be right 

Drought could be declared tomorrow in 'quite a few regions', Sky News understands

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

A drought could be declared in "quite a few regions" of the country tomorrow, a source from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has told Sky News.

 

 

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

You might be right 

Drought could be declared tomorrow in 'quite a few regions', Sky News understands

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

A drought could be declared in "quite a few regions" of the country tomorrow, a source from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has told Sky News.

 

 

I don't know guys, but even back in 1976 it didn't need a government minister's expert advice for me to realise there was a drought: are not acres of lifeless grass, crops and empty reservoirs not enough?

[Summer Sun]

Yorkshire Water have this morning announced a hosepipe ban effective from August 26th affecting more than 5 million people 

[Summer Sun]

Thames Water could announce the date for its hosepipe ban as soon as today if a drought is declared in its area

[kold weather]

I think its pretty obvious a drought needs to be declared for large parts of the southern/eastern halves of the UK. Of course just as that happens no doubt we will enter a sustained unsettled spell to take the edge of the dry conditions (even if there is a high risk of flash flooding to start with due to the convective nature at first).

[Skullzrulerz]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Yorkshire Water have this morning announced a hosepipe ban effective from August 26th affecting more than 5 million people 

So 14 days from now? Suppose it's needs to go through legal stuff before enforcing it?

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

So 14 days from now? Suppose it's needs to go through legal stuff before enforcing it?

It is a bit daft. They could bring in overzealous Covid restrictions at the drop of the hat, but stopping someone filling up a swimming pool? Nah, 2 weeks of legal wrangling. Bonkers.

[Weather26]

11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think its pretty obvious a drought needs to be declared for large parts of the southern/eastern halves of the UK. Of course just as that happens no doubt we will enter a sustained unsettled spell to take the edge of the dry conditions (even if there is a high risk of flash flooding to start with due to the convective nature at first).

And which could come as early as Monday-yep a repeat of 1976, aka declaring a drought just as conditions finally turn, appears to be happening here.