Drought Watch

[Summer Sun]

South West Water has lifted the 13-month hosepipe ban in parts of Devon and Cornwall

[MattStoke]

On 16/06/2023 at 15:56, Metwatch said:

Now that a hosepipe ban is planned, a July washout is bound to take place.

 

On 16/06/2023 at 16:15, Weather26 said:

followed by the alomst traditional August washout when the schools are off-yep i can see this happening.

 

On 16/06/2023 at 16:31, *Stormforce~beka* said:

and then a nice hot September ...

Lottery numbers, please!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

 

 

Lottery numbers, please!

1 2 4 8 16 32

[Bobd29]

3 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

1 2 4 8 16 32

I’ll try, reckon my odds for the jackpot are 1 in 45,057,474 lol

[raz.org.rain]

Have to admit, apart from a few days worth, it has been exceptionally dry since august.

[Bristawl Si]

4 minutes ago, razorgrain said:

Have to admit, apart from a few days worth, it has been exceptionally dry since august.

Really?!

Yday eve the Beeb weather guy, Matt Taylor, put up figs of near 100% rainfall, so far, this Sept for most areas. Many areas likely to go past 100% for Sept, by month's end.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Bristle Si

[damianslaw]

According to Environment Agency statistics, SW region has reported 127% average rainfall past 12 months. Begs the question why a hosepipe ban needed. 

[Weather-history]

11 hours ago, razorgrain said:

Have to admit, apart from a few days worth, it has been exceptionally dry since august.

Either your location (says Cheshire) has been under freak local conditions this month or how you define "exceptionally dry" is in question.

 

[Summer Sun]

Spain's Catalonia region which includes Barcelona has today extended a water ban to the refilling of public pools and some restrictions on public showers after 40 consecutive months of below-average rainfall.

The region faces the prospect of bringing in water by boat during the summer.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Summer Sun Wowcha!!

[raz.org.rain]

Could we see a dry spring that could result in a drought risk? With all the favourable analogs suggesting a 2003 repeat, imagine how that could fuel any potential heatwave(s). 

[Bristawl Si]

 raz.org.rain dont start

[sundog]

 raz.org.rain

Well since Sept 2022, it's been a very wet period overall ( bar some dryer interludes mid May- mid June last yr for example).  Before September 2022 the previous yr was often dry. We seem to go through periods of wet weather for months being replaced by alot of dry weather    in recent yrs and visa versa. So I  do wonder do we go back to often dry weather in the not too distant future . 

Edited February 2 by sundog

[Weather Enthusiast91]

 raz.org.rain I doubt there will be any risk of drought at any time soon. If a drought is declared, then something is seriously wrong. 

 

[LetItSnow!]

21 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

Could we see a dry spring that could result in a drought risk? With all the favourable analogs suggesting a 2003 repeat, imagine how that could fuel any potential heatwave(s). 

Apart from a spell of dry weather that lasted from about November 2021 to August 2022, the past five years has been anomalously wet. 2023 was one of the wettest years on record and IIRC someone pointed out that July-December 2023 was even more anomalous. We’re not going into a drought any time soon, and as someone said, to be declared so would be more a shocking indictment on our infrastructure. We’d need to have an extremely dry year and probably stay dry into 2025 for that to happen IMO. Also, as much as I love an analogue to look at I don’t really find them particularly predictive. Someone made a thread trying to make an analogue on the years that match most globally and it still hasn’t been all that accurate. I would be surprised if 2024 was *as* wet as 2023 though. It probably will be dryer just on statistics alone. 

[Weather-history]

 LetItSnow!

July 2023-January 2024 has recorded over 1000mm for the NW England/N Wales region, probably the wettest such period on record for the region and someone brings up a drought watch thread who says they live in the region? Need to turn off the rainfall taps first!

[Metwatch]

Even if it's as dry as 2011 around these parts or 2003 for a more wider area (which is very unlikely this year anyway), there should still be little in the way of "lack of water" problems until the first half of autumn at the earliest, and by then, evaporation rates would be much lower with the weakening sun and cooler temperatures, so no issues until 2025.

We need a run of drier months after last year's deluge. January just gone was near average which is a good start

Edited February 5 by Metwatch

[reef]

January was the 7th consecutive wetter than average month here too, with 2023 the second wettest year. If there are water restrictions at any point this year then we may as well give up.

[Weather-history]

 reef

For the NW ENG/NWales region,

20th wettest summer on record (2023)  followed by the 11th wettest autumn on record (2023) followed by  so far the 27th wettest winter on record (2023-24) giving a whopping 1112mm since the start of July last year.

An annual total of 1112mm would put that  year in the top 40 wettest years on record for the region......and this is just 7 and a half months. God knows what the July 2023-June 2024 rainfall total is going to end up as

Edited February 13 by Weather-history

[reef]

 Weather-history Yes, even here in the more sheltered east the rainfall is becoming notable.

Wettest rolling 12 month periods here since 1980:

969.0mm: March 2019 - February 2020
921.2mm: April 2019 - March 2020
920.8mm: June 1980 - May 1981
911.6mm: September 2019 - August 2020
895.2mm: March 2023 - February 2024.

Winter is currently 2nd wettest since 1980, Autumn was 4th wettest, Summer 10th wettest and Spring 11th wettest. 2023 was 2nd wettest as a whole.

As seems to be the trend these days we flip flop between exceptionally wet and exceptionally dry. 2019-2020 was a very wet period, 2021-2022 very dry indeed and now 2023-24 is very wet again. March 2021 to October 2022 only had 773.8mm in 20 months.
 

[ANYWEATHER]

On 05/02/2024 at 15:26, reef said:

January was the 7th consecutive wetter than average month here too, with 2023 the second wettest year. If there are water restrictions at any point this year then we may as well give up.

Given our crumbling infrastructure, A two week hot spell will give the water boards a good excuse for restrictions.

[kold weather]

One thing that would be interesting to know is is this a true uplift in raininess in the country, or is it just us getting stronger fronts relative to past similar synoptic.

In other words, have our rain days gone up or down?

I'd guess it's possible that both rain days could decrease and rainfall averages go up due to more intensity of said events.

[reef]

 kold weather I genuinely think its a case of the flip-flopping nature of rainfall these days as I mention above. In my own figures, every decade has a ten year average of between 638 and 690mm with the most recent 10 year average being 675mm.

We just seem to go from extremely dry periods to wet ones now. Some examples here:

2008: 800.4mm
2009: 591.2mm

2011: 455.8mm
2012: 827.0mm
2013: 491.0mm

These are just over years, but it can also be seasons:

Winter 2020: 206.4mm
Spring 2020: 34.2mm
Summer 2020: 233.6mm

We just sort of get stuck in a rut these days.
 

Edited February 13 by reef

[MP-R]

 reef This is reality of how this country is becoming. We're now just getting all the same weather we've always had but for much longer periods of time, and proper cold spells have reduced in number. So it's luck of the draw where the good weather and the bad weather settle.

Oh for a climate of seasonality...