Drought Watch

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, Ravendane said:

It will be a crisis if there isn't enough grass high enough to cut as hay and silage for winter fodder for farm animals and horses. May and June are the growing times and it isn't growing enough in an early drought.

What do you think the future is for this sort of farming? With dry summers likely to be a growing trend, it seems grass growing may become less viable as the years press on. At what point do changes have to be made to land use/methodology, to avoid perpetual crises year after year?

In 2018, a local farm I did some business with, explained they'd lost 90 percent of their wheat crop that summer. The 2018 summer was more or less repeated last year, though maybe it wasn't quite as severe as 2018, agriculturally. I can't see the future for these sorts of crops in southern and eastern England for the long term.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

11 hours ago, matt111 said:

The grass is really starting to turn yellow already here too, it's surprised me how quickly it's started doing it.

Tbf grass going yellow in the summer months is standard for summer in my ends, can recall it since being a small child, with my parents bringing out the sprinklers to water the grass on a timer overnight during the school summer holidays.

This has been a particularly dry period for many parts of the country that are not known for it, however. Such as Wales and the South West.

3 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

What do you think the future is for this sort of farming? With dry summers likely to be a growing trend, it seems grass growing may become less viable as the years press on. At what point do changes have to be made to land use/methodology, to avoid perpetual crises year after year?

In 2018, a local farm I did some business with, explained they'd lost 90 percent of their wheat crop that summer. The 2018 summer was more or less repeated last year, though maybe it wasn't quite as severe as 2018, agriculturally. I can't see the future for these sorts of crops in southern and eastern England for the long term.

What do they do in the USA? Most of the states which are primarily agricultural have very hot and dry summers, and it's all grassland / prarie-land. 

Don't know if any of their techniques or methodology can be adopted in Britain in future.

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Tbf grass going yellow in the summer months is standard for summer in my ends, can recall it since being a small child, with my parents bringing out the sprinklers to water the grass on a timer overnight during the school summer holidays.

This has been a particularly dry period for many parts of the country that are not known for it, however. Such as Wales and the South West.

Yes it is normal. Happened decades and centuries past. I remember burnt brown grass in the local park number of summers in the 80s and 90s, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1995......

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

We have the infrastructure of a third world country. If it hasn’t rained for a while, our leaky reservoirs become empty overnight. 

Absolute rubbish. 

Yes, there's a lot of improvements that could and should be made, but with a population of c70m and one of the most densely populated countries in the Western world it aint nowhere near "third world".

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Absolute rubbish. 

Yes, there's a lot of improvements that could and should be made, but with a population of c70m and one of the most densely populated countries in the Western world it aint nowhere near "third world".

It's a bit of an exaggeration, right enough, but that doesn't change the fact that many more £billions have been handed to shareholders than have been spent on much-needed repairs.  IMO, a commodity so basic to maintaining life should never be subject to free-market ideology. Shafting the many for the benefit of the few, eh? 

[sebastiaan1973]

No rain since 12 of May here at De Bilt, Netherlands. No serious consequenses for the moment. Very wet spring. 

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Bristle Si said:

Absolute rubbish. 

Yes, there's a lot of improvements that could and should be made, but with a population of c70m and one of the most densely populated countries in the Western world it aint nowhere near "third world".

We always makes excuses for British mediocrity. 

[hillbilly]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yes it is normal. Happened decades and centuries past. I remember burnt brown grass in the local park number of summers in the 80s and 90s, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1995......

Many of the great summers come in pairs and am starting to think this summer may be a pair with last year,another very good one and although water stocks here are much higher than this time last year it could end up very dry by the end of Summer.

[damianslaw]

29 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Many of the great summers come in pairs and am starting to think this summer may be a pair with last year,another very good one and although water stocks here are much higher than this time last year it could end up very dry by the end of Summer.

Yes seems the case, though here I would 21 as good as well.

75-76, 83-84, 89-90, 94-95 or 95-96, 03-04, 05-06, 13-14, however not 17-18 or 18-19.

I think this year will bring significant thundery rain, thanks to the extra heat in the atmosphere due to anomalous atlantic warmth a recipe for downpours and plumes.

[dryfie]

 

Water Resources - Scottish Water

WWW.SCOTTISHWATER.CO.UK

I don't know a great deal about reservoir levels etc.  But I'd have thought a 6% drop in capacity in just one week is of concern?

[andy989]

It’s extremely dry here, can’t remember our last rain but it’s currently day 30 of clear blue skies, grass is getting very brown in places

[The PIT]

18 days since last measurable rain here which was on the 19th of May with 0.4mm. In the last 25 days we've had just 0.4mm of rain. Despite amazingly green round here the grass has only recently just slowed in growing likewise the hedge. The dams are mostly full as well.

[TwisterGirl81]

We have not had any measurable rain for 23 days in Exeter and it's been 28 days since anything over 2.4mm....Loving the sunny weather (hope it continues) but hoping we all get a good soaking from some thunderstorms and hope they become more widespread in the south than what is currently showing on the latest gfs, it wont touch the sides, we need some good downpours.

Edited June 7, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[kold weather]

Hard to know how long we've been dry, the nearest station Odiham suggests it rained just 2 days ago, but to be frank I don't recall seeing it and I'm up very early in the morning these days and there would be slight evidence of it given how cool the nights have been, so I'm guessing whatever was there, was not present locally.

Either way, its been a very dry period, it probably ends this weekend for many but as other have said, not sure short lived showers/storms, no matter how energetic, are going to make a huge difference unless its a pattern that sustains for several weeks. It also does have to be said that there maybe less that makes it to the ground than the models expect given some of it looks like mid level based.

Edited June 7, 2023 by kold weather

[al78]

On 04/06/2023 at 13:29, cheese said:

We always makes excuses for British mediocrity. 

Mediocrity is being generous. I call it crapness. It is the same with the rail network, it takes only a modest deviation from normality to cause significant problems. The UK's infrastructure seems to have little resiliance.

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest rainfall in De Bilt (Netherlands) 12th of may. 

[The PIT]

19 days and still counting. Local forecast not really interested very much in the way of showers over the weekend. If that ends up being the case we could make a months worth of no measurable rain. The last longest was 23 days July 2018.

[TwisterGirl81]

10 minutes ago, The PIT said:

19 days and still counting. Local forecast not really interested very much in the way of showers over the weekend. If that ends up being the case we could make a months worth of no measurable rain. The last longest was 23 days July 2018.

I'm sure last year during summer in Exeter we went for ages without rain, felt like at least a month and half possibly longer

Edited June 8, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[dryfie]

22 hours ago, kold weather said:

Hard to know how long we've been dry, the nearest station Odiham suggests it rained just 2 days ago, but to be frank I don't recall seeing it and I'm up very early in the morning these days and there would be slight evidence of it given how cool the nights have been, so I'm guessing whatever was there, was not present locally.

Either way, its been a very dry period, it probably ends this weekend for many but as other have said, not sure short lived showers/storms, no matter how energetic, are going to make a huge difference unless its a pattern that sustains for several weeks. It also does have to be said that there maybe less that makes it to the ground than the models expect given some of it looks like mid level based.

Relax, the Met Office site at RAF Odiham has reported nil rain since 3mm on 15th May.

Synop report summary

OGIMET.COM

 

[reef]

On 07/06/2023 at 12:16, TwisterGirl81 said:

We have not had any measurable rain for 23 days in Exeter and it's been 28 days since anything over 2.4mm....Loving the sunny weather (hope it continues) but hoping we all get a good soaking from some thunderstorms and hope they become more widespread in the south than what is currently showing on the latest gfs, it wont touch the sides, we need some good downpours.

We've also had no rain at all since the 19th and only 0.6mm since 14th May. Despite the dryness, that image shows what a shocker it has been here though. Since the 21st, 220 hours of sunshine at Exeter compared to 134 hours here (and just 34 hours in June so far) and a low max of 19.0C when we've only had two days above 19C.

[ChannelThunder]

Getting a sinking feeling about the lack of rain & drought prospects again this year. Yes, it's early, but this weekend's low looks to be the only chance of any rain in the models right now, and even that is getting more and more dry with every run. I was a least hoping for some downpours to top up the water butts, pond and just give the fast-drying and cracking ground everywhere a good drink.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Getting a sinking feeling about the lack of rain & drought prospects again this year. Yes, it's early, but this weekend's low looks to be the only chance of any rain in the models right now, and even that is getting more and more dry with every run. I was a least hoping for some downpours to top up the water butts, pond and just give the fast-drying and cracking ground everywhere a good drink.

Yeah I posted this in another thread-

‘Yeah looks like the drought will carry on for most.

Makes you wonder when we’ll next see widespread rainfall. Looking at the UKMO/GEM etc the next 7-10 at least looks devoid of it.

Another 4 weeks or so of this pattern and I can see hosepipe bans being implemented, especially with water demand increasing with the temperatures.’

The biggest concern, of course, is that we then go on to have a dry autumn and winter. That would send us into next summer on a really dodgy footing. I think it’s inevitable we’ll be using standpipes at some point within the next decade…it’s not hard to see the drying trend in our climate recently.

Edited June 8, 2023 by CreweCold

[Weather-history]

On 04/06/2023 at 23:03, damianslaw said:

Yes seems the case, though here I would 21 as good as well.

75-76, 83-84, 89-90, 94-95 or 95-96, 03-04, 05-06, 13-14, however not 17-18 or 18-19.

I think this year will bring significant thundery rain, thanks to the extra heat in the atmosphere due to anomalous atlantic warmth a recipe for downpours and plumes.

2004? 

I don't think summer 2004 was a great summer. Mid June-mid July was poor and August was pretty much very wet with plenty of thunder. 

[Mountain Snow]

28 days without a drop of rain now, very rare for these parts. Must have had about 20 sunset evenings in a row, almost getting boring now!

[kold weather]

55 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

2004? 

I don't think summer 2004 was a great summer. Mid June-mid July was poor and August was pretty much very wet with plenty of thunder. 

It was a really humid and tropical like summer, and the night time mins really reflected that as well. 

However yeah I'm not sure it was a classic.

Grass here already looking somewhat yellow despite what was a very wet spring, a total lack of rain for 3 weeks has dried the top layers out pretty much entirely. Still a long way to go for things to look as bad as they got in August 22 when we lost all nearby ponds/lakes but obviously summer has only just begun and the occasional convective day isn't going to help a huge amount.