Drought Watch

[Nick L]

2.2mm of rain here today, making it the wettest day since 15th January.

The ground is actually starting to crack here as well.

[reef]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

EWP is roughly about 20mm since mid January to now and looking at the charts it looks very dry going into the first week of March

 

30 years ago, February and March were very dry for the EWP, 40.4mm was recorded over those two months.

I get a horrible feeling that this is going to breakdown into a summer washout

I get the same feeling too. If you look at previous Februarys here with below 20mm of rain since 1980, they are:

1982
1985
1993
1998
1999
2012
2019

Not exactly a list of great years summer-wise.

[Metwatch]

On 23/11/2022 at 18:35, Metwatch said:

Severn trent region average reservoir levels recovering nicely in the last 2 months, 20% increase.

The dry summer feeling like a very distant memory.

Update to yesterday for Severn Trent region water levels, 89.2% per yesterday's update so doing not too bad, nice recovery since November, much better than some local reservoirs in the south west I hear.

[Nick L]

Finishing February on just 5.6mm for the month, and less than 10mm since 15th January.

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Finishing February on just 5.6mm for the month, and less than 10mm since 15th January.

Exceptionally dry second half to winter. Can't remember our last proper wet day probably about the 15th Jan as well.

[Bobd29]

On 23/02/2023 at 12:47, reef said:

I get the same feeling too. If you look at previous Februarys here with below 20mm of rain since 1980, they are:

1982
1985
1993
1998
1999
2012
2019

Not exactly a list of great years summer-wise.

Oh no, not another 2012 summer please.

[danm]

Hosepipe bans ‘almost inevitable’ after driest February in 30 years

WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

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Meteorologist warns that ‘there would be a lot of alarm bells ringing’ if current pattern of unusually dry weather continues

 

[Airedalejoe]

Total opposite here, rain has eventually relented after what seems an age, cold with it too. Everywhere is very muddy and wet. Praying for dry weather. We have the North Sea rain generator to thank yet again.

[danm]

1 hour ago, Airedalejoe said:

Total opposite here, rain has eventually relented after what seems an age, cold with it too. Everywhere is very muddy and wet. Praying for dry weather. We have the North Sea rain generator to thank yet again.

Here is the 2022/23 winter rainfall anomaly against the 1991-2020 average:

 

And for February in particular:

Edited March 2, 2023 by danm

[Skullzrulerz]

1 hour ago, danm said:

Hosepipe bans ‘almost inevitable’ after driest February in 30 years

WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

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Meteorologist warns that ‘there would be a lot of alarm bells ringing’ if current pattern of unusually dry weather continues

 

Indeed it's concerning, what are the long range forecasts showing at the moment.

Considering that we had a dry summer, surely it's going to be a wet one?

[laddie]

Dry as I've ever known it east of Peterborough at this time of year, very little replenishment over winter and soils not far off dust

[kold weather]

We ended up this winter basically at average but that was almost exclusively from an exceptionally wet 3 weeks in Dec-Jan.

Since then its been.very dry to the point the local lake is already looking a little sorry for itself. 

Hopefully the southern jet can ignite to give a decent rain period at some point this spring otherwise we may get into a very iffy position come summer.

@Skullzrulerz latest cansips longer range outlook looks pretty dry, notable upper high signature very close to UK with dry anomaly.

Edited March 2, 2023 by kold weather

[The PIT]

Ended up with 180.5mm 79.5% of the winter average. Febs contribution 9.7mm.

[dryfie]

https://riverlevels.uk/esk-border-dumfries-and-galloway-canonbie

Of course if the air remains cold and very dry following the snow, it has no benefit whatsoever, as per our local river.  This shows the local river level since 6cm of snow has 'disappeared', which has the level continuing to fall.   Things are going from the sublimation to the ridiculous!

 

[sebastiaan1973]

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acbc37

Abstract

A prolonged drought affected Western Europe and the Mediterranean region in 2022 producing large socio-ecological impacts. The role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in exacerbating this drought has been often invoked in the public debate, but the link between atmospheric circulation and ACC has not received much attention so far. Here we address this question by applying the method of circulation analogs, which allows us to identify atmospheric patterns in the period 1836–2021 very similar to those occurred in 2022. By comparing the circulation analogs when global warming was absent (1836–1915) with those occurred recently (1942–2021), and by excluding interannual and interdecadal variability as possible drivers, we identify the contribution of ACC. The 2022 drought was associated with a persistent anticyclonic anomaly over Western Europe. Circulation analogs of this atmospheric pattern in 1941–2021 feature 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies larger in both extent and magnitude, and higher temperatures at the surface, relative to those in 1836–1915. Both factors exacerbated the drought, by increasing the area affected and enhancing soil drying through evapotranspiration. While the occurrence of the atmospheric circulation associated with the 2022 drought has not become more frequent in recent decades, the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation cannot be ruled-out.

[alexisj9]

9 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acbc37

Abstract

A prolonged drought affected Western Europe and the Mediterranean region in 2022 producing large socio-ecological impacts. The role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in exacerbating this drought has been often invoked in the public debate, but the link between atmospheric circulation and ACC has not received much attention so far. Here we address this question by applying the method of circulation analogs, which allows us to identify atmospheric patterns in the period 1836–2021 very similar to those occurred in 2022. By comparing the circulation analogs when global warming was absent (1836–1915) with those occurred recently (1942–2021), and by excluding interannual and interdecadal variability as possible drivers, we identify the contribution of ACC. The 2022 drought was associated with a persistent anticyclonic anomaly over Western Europe. Circulation analogs of this atmospheric pattern in 1941–2021 feature 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies larger in both extent and magnitude, and higher temperatures at the surface, relative to those in 1836–1915. Both factors exacerbated the drought, by increasing the area affected and enhancing soil drying through evapotranspiration. While the occurrence of the atmospheric circulation associated with the 2022 drought has not become more frequent in recent decades, the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation cannot be ruled-out.

Let's hope this summer is less dry. Sadly I'm not sure it will be.

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Let's hope this summer is less dry. Sadly I'm not sure it will be.

At least with the current pattern of yo-yo-ing air masses, we ought to get some much-needed rain.

[RJBingham]

Reservoir storage for Anglian water 89.8 full

Monitoring water resources | Anglian Water Services

WWW.ANGLIANWATER.CO.UK

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Our reservoir levels, river levels and Groundwater levels in our region.

 

[Sunny76]

On 28/02/2023 at 20:17, Bobd29 said:

Oh no, not another 2012 summer please.

2012 summer would be seriously depressing. If that happens, I won’t even bother going out on the weekends lol.

[Sun Chaser]

3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

2012 summer would be seriously depressing. If that happens, I won’t even bother going out on the weekends lol.

I like to think that we're getting our zonality out of the way now to allow high pressure to become more persistent in the warmer months. Absolutely no science behind this just something that makes me feel better about this poor March

 

10 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Reservoir storage for Anglian water 89.8 full

Monitoring water resources | Anglian Water Services

WWW.ANGLIANWATER.CO.UK

---

Our reservoir levels, river levels and Groundwater levels in our region.

 

Good that certain reservoirs are approaching normal levels after such a severe drought. While I would love another hot, sunny summer, I guess I wouldn't complain about some regular thunderstorm-associated heavy rain to keep the water table topped up and avoid a repeat of last year. (with an immediate reload of high pressure afterwards of course). Everyone loves a good thunderstorm.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

2012 summer would be seriously depressing. If that happens, I won’t even bother going out on the weekends lol.

As awful as summer 2012 was, I actually think 2007 was worse. 

At least in 2012 we did get a week of warmth and sunshine in late July as well as a thunderstorm event in late June, and the August wasn't too bad as far as Augusts go these days.

Summer 2007 was constantly dull and wet with mediocre at best temps throughout. I can't recall any particular warm or thundery spells from that summer.

Edited March 12, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[ANYWEATHER]

The problem is the Northwest of the uk had wet conditions at times last summer,the southeast uk which had dry conditions and with an ever growing population and lack of new infrastructure it's building up to be a perfect storm scenario .

[Summer Sun]

Hosepipe ban brewing amid 'acute risk of water shortages', warn climate, farming and infrastructure chiefs

 

Hosepipe ban brewing amid 'acute risk of water shortages', warn climate, farming and infrastructure chiefs

NEWS.SKY.COM

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With recent dry weather due to persist until at least May, two different government advisory bodies have warned water shortages may be in the pipeline. Carrot and lettuce harvests are at risk, say farmers...

 

[Dark Horse]

On 12/03/2023 at 12:11, ANYWEATHER said:

The problem is the Northwest of the uk had wet conditions at times last summer,the southeast uk which had dry conditions and with an ever growing population and lack of new infrastructure it's building up to be a perfect storm scenario .

I'm guessing you mean NW Scotland and NI? As it was pretty dry here in NW England for a while everything was cracked underfoot. Our reservoir levels dropped to about 30% by September, so that's clearly more people using the supply than it can cope with, of course day upon day of dry weather won't help too. I don't think people realise how serious this could get. A few days of rain or snow isn't going to top up reservoirs or ground sources. Until the last week or two we went nearly a month without a drop of rain here. That is highly unusual west of the Pennines in the winter and reservoir levels whilst not in danger right now are about 12% lower than this time last year. So if we have another dry year we could see levels drop into the teens by Autumn. That's stark. Like you say an ever growing population isn't going to help matters, we all use tap water to some degree, some use it more than they should. Either lower the population somehow or build much better water infrastructure.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Dark Horse

[ANYWEATHER]

19 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

I'm guessing you mean NW Scotland and NI? As it was pretty dry here in NW England for a while everything was cracked underfoot. Our reservoir levels dropped to about 30% by September, so that's clearly more people using the supply than it can cope with, of course day upon day of dry weather won't help too. I don't think people realise how serious this could get. A few days of rain or snow isn't going to top up reservoirs or ground sources. Until the last week or two we went nearly a month without a drop of rain here. That is highly unusual west of the Pennines in the winter and reservoir levels whilst not in danger right now are about 12% lower than this time last year. So if we have another dry year we could see levels drop into the teens by Autumn. That's stark. Like you say an ever growing population isn't going to help matters, we all use tap water to some degree, some use it more than they should. Either lower the population somehow or build much better water infrastructure.

Totally agree. The water infrastructure has been neglected for many decades.  What about a national grid of water sending the water from the generally extremely wet northwest of Britain to the drier south east uk, or is that too simple for water companies,  although that infrastructure should have been built donkeys years ago. ...!