Drought Watch

[Don]

32 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

No it won't! It will be snow!! Pft! Get it right man ...

Oh yeah and pigs might fly! 

[cyclonic happiness]

I really do think this Summer's weather has been really affected by the Tongan eruption, also would explain the sheer amounts of amazing sunsets we are getting, plus the extra heat.

It's also a bit scary to think we could have the extra warming from the eruption for up to 10 years!  We have truly entered the next phase of global warming and it's just been turbo charged

 

Tonga's volcano sent tons of water into the stratosphere. That could warm the Earth

WWW.NPR.ORG

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"We've never seen anything like it," said atmospheric scientist Luis Millán, who works at NASA. The vapor sent skyward by the eruption will likely stay in the stratosphere for years.

 

[Puddy Galore]

Still waiting for my decent rainfall event!  The garden needs sorting but its like concrete so cannot even contemplate it at the moment.   As others have commented, the promise of decent rain is there 3 or 4 days ahead only for it to dissipate as soon as it gets closer  Afraid I can’t wait for this summer and infernal dry weather to do one.   

[hillbilly]

On 28/08/2022 at 23:00, Mapantz said:

Here's some of my rainfall stats:

65.4mm for the summer. My own average is 172.7mm. The MO average is 145mm.

June:

July:

August:

Here in the normally very wet Pennine hills we have had 115mm this summer but it is far from the extraordinary Summer 1995 which had a mere 34mm!

[reef]

The drought continues here in September. We've yet to have any measurable rain this month despite a forecast of rain yesterday and today.

[minus10]

So far in this 'unsettled spell' since Thursday to Saturday we here have had a total of 4.5 mm and  a lot of that was only luck with many adjoining areas seeing 0 mm.  

As others have said the downgrade of rain predictions continues..only this evening evident from the bbc...their week forecast had this for 2pm Tuesday..

This had changed to this for the evening forecast...

Just excaperated really with this situation...a faily deep organised low parked to the sw all week with much humid warm tma in its circulation and yet any rain struggles to get over to the east of the country...its not like we are the other side of a massive continent!!  What has to happen for us to get proper rain...(i shall probably regret saying this in a few months time when we are getting record totals  ...although the way things are going i'm not so sure)

Anyway...rant over....here's hoping for some storms....sorry...you what....oh..

 

Edited September 4, 2022 by minus10

[ChannelThunder]

Hope you've had some decent rainfall out of this by now @minus10

It's been good down here, all my moans and groans during July and August are just a memory now. Frequent downpours and heavy thunderstorms have added to the heavy prolonged rain of the morning of 25th Aug, and the entire garden looks all the better for it, with not a patch of that barren yellow/brown that dominated the summer left on the lawn.

Some of the giant cracks in the ground on footpaths etc remain in place as evidence of the drought. Some of them are so wide that I wonder what it'll take for them to be 'filled in' and be gone.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

We have had a few good episodes of torrential rain so far this month, which has very much been welcomed with open arms.

The parched grass has reverted back to that beautiful lush green colour. It will be time to get the lawn mower out again shortly, which is something I haven't done since early June.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[minus10]

8 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Hope you've had some decent rainfall out of this by now @minus10

It's been good down here, all my moans and groans during July and August are just a memory now. Frequent downpours and heavy thunderstorms have added to the heavy prolonged rain of the morning of 25th Aug, and the entire garden looks all the better for it, with not a patch of that barren yellow/brown that dominated the summer left on the lawn.

Some of the giant cracks in the ground on footpaths etc remain in place as evidence of the drought. Some of them are so wide that I wonder what it'll take for them to be 'filled in' and be gone.

Yes here we have had about 30mm since last Thursday RCT. It is nice to see everything greening up again. Also makes gardening easier, particularly when planting..sounds like you have had a lot of rain on IOW...amazing storms too...hope we get some more before September is out...re cracks, i think the worms will get to work with the softer soil filling it in....more of this wet weather mixed with some fine sunnier days should help with the drought situation....just hope places further east eg Essex , Kent, East Anglia and Lincs get a decent amount...

[*Stormforce~beka*]

9 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

We have had a few good episodes of torrential rain so far this month, which has very much been welcomed with open arms.

The parched grass has reverted back to that beautiful lush green colour. It will be time to get the lawn mower out again shortly, which is something I haven't done since early June.

Our lawn hasn't been mowed once! Hubby is lazy ...

[richie3846]

https://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/HS_202208.pdf

 

For those interested in the details of our current drought up until the end of August, here is a concise summary of the key facts.

 

40 out 46 measuring stations recorded record low moisture levels in the soil. Also, there is mention about the recent wet weather we've had, reiterating the need for more rain over the winter period to reverse the drought properly. The growing season is still with us, especially with the warm September we're experiencing, so with a drier spell looking likely, with more sun and some warmth, the recent wet weather may not be as much, or as effective as we'd hope.

 

To put it in context, some places may have reached 150mm deficits in soil moisture (exact numbers will be published by the environment agency next week). Many places have enjoyed 30 to 40mm during September so far. Plants are growing and grass is greening back up, which indicates that moisture is being lost to the atmosphere via still quite high levels of evaporation. It doesn't take much working out on the back of an envelope to realise that if we are still losing 2mm a day and we've had 40mm, and may not get any more rain for 5 days:

 

150mm deficit - 40mm rain =110mm

110mm + 2mm loss, per day, for 15 days=140mm

Back of an envelope calculation indicates that if it doesn't rain any more by mid month, soils are still almost as dry as they were at the end of August.

This is why green grass is a little bit of a false dawn when it comes to drought reversal. It's the first step in a longer route to recovery.

Many of the days that have been wet have also had sunny spells and been quite warm, so the evaporation has still been notable, but of course slightly suppressed by the wet periods. Over the next few days the evaporation rates are likely to be a little higher as the sun still has some power, and with brighter skies will be quite effective at sucking out some of the rain of recent days. 

[Nick L]

It's remarkable how everything is completely green again. Take note, idiots who insist on watering their lawns!

[Notty]

Been driving through Brittany today and their crops have suffered

[Nick L]

While this thread has fallen by the wayside and we have had some recent rainfall, the drought certainly hasn't gone away. There is still a significant rainfall deficit with some water companies warning of more strict measures on the way. There looks to be virtually no rainfall in areas that really need it over the next 10 days or so.

[richie3846]

Precisely Nick. When we have rain like we did earlier this month, onto dry ground, it mostly stays in the upper portion of soil, giving a boost for grasses etc, but does very little to replenish. The drier the soil, the slower the loss of moisture, which unfortunately also works the other way round. The top portion of soil that now has green grass (though in this district not all grass has grown back yet due to continued severe deficits) is green because it's sucking the holy crap out of that ground, enjoying the rain that has fallen, and therefore increasing the rate of transevaporation. Other plants and trees will also be greedily losing this moisture to the air, especially where September still has enough sun strength for plants to grow steadily. Some areas ended August with moisture deficits in the soil of around 6 inches, 50 percent more than average. That's a whole extra month of rain needed to rebalance that.

 

If we end up with a couple weeks of dry weather, which seems likely as we're already a few days into a drier spell, then we will likely end September with very significant moisture deficits. This is why it's not just how much rain that falls, but when this happens. Rain in October is more useful for replenishment of deficits than September, because the growing season slows right down during the month. 

 

For those interested in reading about the situation where they live, the environment agency produce this monthly report, giving exact details of every catchment in England. I'm not sure if Scotland and Wales have similar reports:

 

/assets/static/govuk-opengraph-image-dade2dad5775023b0568381c4c074b86318194edb36d3d68df721eea7deeac4b.png

Water situation: national monthly reports for England 2022 - GOV.UK

WWW.GOV.UK

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Monthly reports on rainfall, soil moisture deficit, river flows, groundwater levels and reservoir levels.

 

[markyo]

42 minutes ago, Nick L said:

While this thread has fallen by the wayside and we have had some recent rainfall, the drought certainly hasn't gone away. There is still a significant rainfall deficit with some water companies warning of more strict measures on the way. There looks to be virtually no rainfall in areas that really need it over the next 10 days or so.

The Pennie chains are lower than i've ever seen them,  Scammoden is virtually empty, very worrying, we need months of good constant rain, those who think the drought has subsided are very very wrong, it is getting worse. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Looks like it's going to be predominently dry again for at least the next 10 days, so the common weather trend we have been experiencing since early 2021 (long dry periods interspersed by short but abrupt unsettled ones) is set to continue. 

I am not too concerned for the timebeing though as long benign periods in September are fairly common, even in the wettest of years - the first half of September 2012 for example, which was predominently dry and benign for many areas. 

Edited September 16, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[reef]

The drought certainly hasn't gone away here. We've had enough rain to turn everything green but its only 30.0mm so far in September and little is forecast in the reliable period.

Still well on course for the driest year on record. The local records at Hull go back to the 1850s and its on course to be the driest in that too. 

We've had 270mm in 2022 when in a year we'd expect about 660mm.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, reef said:

The drought certainly hasn't gone away here. We've had enough rain to turn everything green but its only 30.0mm so far in September and little is forecast in the reliable period.

Still well on course for the driest year on record. The local records at Hull go back to the 1850s and its on course to be the driest in that too. 

We've had 270mm in 2022 when in a year we'd expect about 660mm.

It's the same down here, reef: it's rained enough (though, given the drought we're currently experiencing, not nearly enough!) to make the verges look greener than they did. But that's about it!

[minus10]

Excellent comments above and info re continuation of the drought which most certainly hasnt gone away. Here we had about 44mm so far this month so yes, everything has greened up but dig down a little way into the soil and still very dry. I was hopeful about Friday and this front moving down and stalling with a wave to produce some effective rain down here but looking at latest forecasts not so sure now as is the pattern this year...think the summer drought is now becoming an Autumn drought....

[richie3846]

20 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Excellent comments above and info re continuation of the drought which most certainly hasnt gone away. Here we had about 44mm so far this month so yes, everything has greened up but dig down a little way into the soil and still very dry. I was hopeful about Friday and this front moving down and stalling with a wave to produce some effective rain down here but looking at latest forecasts not so sure now as is the pattern this year...think the summer drought is now becoming an Autumn drought....

Yes, once September is out of the way and we move into mid Autumn, this starts becoming the critical period for rainfall. The 44mm you enjoyed was towards the beginning of the month, when the growing season was more active than it is towards the end of the month. If the 44mm fell towards the end of the month it would have been more useful to kick-start the winter replenishment. With a dry outlook, we can now pretty much forget about that wet week in September, as it served only as a light relief for plants, and to partially green up grasses in more retentive soils. 

 As we move into October, this is when it's worth paying attention to what's happening, how quickly the soil is wetting back up. Given the severe deficits, I'd estimate that with average rainfall for the remaining 3 months of the year, it would take till mid December simply to wet the soils back up in the areas which are currently driest. That would give the rest of the winter over to replenishment of the groundwater levels, which are depleted in some areas.

[minus10]

48 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

Yes, once September is out of the way and we move into mid Autumn, this starts becoming the critical period for rainfall. The 44mm you enjoyed was towards the beginning of the month, when the growing season was more active than it is towards the end of the month. If the 44mm fell towards the end of the month it would have been more useful to kick-start the winter replenishment. With a dry outlook, we can now pretty much forget about that wet week in September, as it served only as a light relief for plants, and to partially green up grasses in more retentive soils. 

 As we move into October, this is when it's worth paying attention to what's happening, how quickly the soil is wetting back up. Given the severe deficits, I'd estimate that with average rainfall for the remaining 3 months of the year, it would take till mid December simply to wet the soils back up in the areas which are currently driest. That would give the rest of the winter over to replenishment of the groundwater levels, which are depleted in some areas.

Absolutely...autumn rain now is so important to alleviate the drought but we will need a considerable prolonged amount...however looking at current weather patterns i fear we wont get it....

Edited September 21, 2022 by minus10

[reef]

Another rainband passed through producing nothing measurable. This seems to be the theme of 2022.

The last 12 months have seen 413mm of rain here. The record driest year is 455mm.

I wonder how long this can go on for?

[Weather Enthusiast91]

23 minutes ago, reef said:

Another rainband passed through producing nothing measurable. This seems to be the theme of 2022.

The last 12 months have seen 413mm of rain here. The record driest year is 455mm.

I wonder how long this can go on for?

I wonder if 2023 will end up being a very wet year? The current theme of long dry periods interspersed by short but abrupt ones just has to break eventually.

I know that whatever happens with the weather is purely coincidental, but it always seems to balance things out in the end.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Weather Enthusiast91]

If the weather conditions being forecast in the model thread for early October comes to pass, then it looks like we are in for yet another longish dry period with little meaningful rainfall for many areas, which means that there is no end in sight to the current drought.

This has become very predictable and boring now. I miss the days when British weather was unpredictable.