Drought Watch

[damianslaw]

46 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Sunday night/Monday's rain now looks largely bypassing here and is more showery in nature, with little meaningful rainfall likely after that either. This is becoming increasingly concerning now.

Need something to shake things up, an ex tropical storm could do the trick. Cold polar cooling in time should stir the jet into action combined with high atlantic SSTs, marked temp gradient. 

Edited August 19, 2022 by damianslaw

[minus10]

Well as predicted the 'widespread' rain event for sunday/ monday downgraded to just some hit/miss showers...no relief for the drought...

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Well as predicted the 'widespread' rain event for sunday/ monday downgraded to just some hit/miss showers...no relief for the drought...

A shocking downgrade really, can't get my head around it. What is going on this year? Even rain that looked nailed on ends up breaking down to near-nothing

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

A shocking downgrade really, can't get my head around it. What is going on this year? Even rain that looked nailed on ends up breaking down to near-nothing

Rain is the new snow!

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Rain is the new snow!

Except in winter when snow is rain!

[ChannelThunder]

On 20/08/2022 at 11:15, ResonantChannelThunder said:

A shocking downgrade really, can't get my head around it. What is going on this year? Even rain that looked nailed on ends up breaking down to near-nothing

My location has done fairly well, considering, today. Some showery bursts making their way through. Nothing to end the drought, but enough to form puddles. I would've of course preferred what the models were showing 4 days ago, but alas, in the end we've been lucky to get this much. 

[minus10]

37 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

My location has done fairly well, considering, today. Some showery bursts making their way through. Nothing to end the drought, but enough to form puddles. I would've of course preferred what the models were showing 4 days ago, but alas, in the end we've been lucky to get this much. 

Yes you got lucky there mate...for most just the same old story...

Fizzling out...again...

 

[Nick L]

Another totally dry day here. Can't wait for the end of month anomaly maps, we must be the driest part of the UK for August.

[ChannelThunder]

2 hours ago, minus10 said:

Yes you got lucky there mate...for most just the same old story...

Fizzling out...again...

 

Getting a load of constant drizzle now to top it off!

[minus10]

13 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Getting a load of constant drizzle now to top it off!

Ah well at least it may add 1 or 2 mm to your water butt...

[RJBingham]

Todays rain has been cancelled then 

[richie3846]

27 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Ah well at least it may add 1 or 2 mm to your water butt...

I think we had about 0.1mm here . Even the Beeb described the forecast today as heavy rain pushing east.

[minus10]

4 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I think we had about 0.1mm here . Even the Beeb described the forecast today as heavy rain pushing east.

Actually its very infuriating when they say things like that and you then see the actual reality of how few areas actually had 'heavy rain'...this is a real problem now of rain fizzling out as it moves south and east...drought is not even mentioned much in the forecasts now but it is still very much an issue...really looking for some rain as we go into September mixed with some nice weather but rain will become an increasing priority down here...

[richie3846]

 

I've been researching into the drought of 1976, to see how it compares to this year. People have gone on the record and said it's not as serious as 1976, because we have much better reservoir levels, and the first part of 76 was much drier than this year. 

These are valid points, but I'd like to draw attention to two things. Firstly, this graphic is the maximum soil moisture deficit for the peak of the drought. Soil moisture deficits in the south this year, at the end of July, we not far off these extreme figures of 76. The number of places that missed the majority of August's showers this year, may have deficits approaching or even exceeding 76, right now. With little rain in the forecast, it's likely that places in the south will have deficits of 150mm like 1976.

 

Secondly, the 76 drought ended in a flash. It was all over by October, thanks to a wet autumn. What has changed in the UK since then, is that autumn in some years, many years, have now become summer extensions. Whilst there is a reasonable chance of a wet autumn of course, statistically speaking, there is a greater chance than 76 of a less wet autumn, as we all know how many September to October periods of recent times have been quite dry (a couple have been very wet too). I'm not making this up either, the met office recently went on record to discuss September becoming an extension of summer, in a podcast. 

 

Given the higher temperatures, longer growing season, and higher risk of a settled autumn, this current very severe drought has the potential to extend into next year if we have rainfall October to March below average, even just a little below average. Even in average rainfall from September onwards, there will be some delay to the groundwater recharge season, because it'll take longer than usual to replenish the 150mm dry soils, which is a good 40 to 50mm drier than average, which for some is almost a month of average rain. 

So fingers crossed for some decent rainfall this winter, as without it, things could become very difficult next year. Even with average rain, groundwater could still be below average until the following winter in some areas. 

People often say that these things have a tendency to balance out, which they have done at times in the past, but with an uncertain climate, I don't think we can rely on that so much these days, living in hope that we'll have heavy rain after a period of drought. 

 

On a personal note, if it does lash it down all winter, it'll be bittersweet for me, as I work outside a lot of the time, and I can't say it's much fun, even if we do need it, I'll still be hacked off if it rains every day for weeks

[minus10]

17 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

 

I've been researching into the drought of 1976, to see how it compares to this year. People have gone on the record and said it's not as serious as 1976, because we have much better reservoir levels, and the first part of 76 was much drier than this year. 

These are valid points, but I'd like to draw attention to two things. Firstly, this graphic is the maximum soil moisture deficit for the peak of the drought. Soil moisture deficits in the south this year, at the end of July, we not far off these extreme figures of 76. The number of places that missed the majority of August's showers this year, may have deficits approaching or even exceeding 76, right now. With little rain in the forecast, it's likely that places in the south will have deficits of 150mm like 1976.

 

Secondly, the 76 drought ended in a flash. It was all over by October, thanks to a wet autumn. What has changed in the UK since then, is that autumn in some years, many years, have now become summer extensions. Whilst there is a reasonable chance of a wet autumn of course, statistically speaking, there is a greater chance than 76 of a less wet autumn, as we all know how many September to October periods of recent times have been quite dry (a couple have been very wet too). I'm not making this up either, the met office recently went on record to discuss September becoming an extension of summer, in a podcast. 

 

Given the higher temperatures, longer growing season, and higher risk of a settled autumn, this current very severe drought has the potential to extend into next year if we have rainfall October to March below average, even just a little below average. Even in average rainfall from September onwards, there will be some delay to the groundwater recharge season, because it'll take longer than usual to replenish the 150mm dry soils, which is a good 40 to 50mm drier than average, which for some is almost a month of average rain. 

So fingers crossed for some decent rainfall this winter, as without it, things could become very difficult next year. Even with average rain, groundwater could still be below average until the following winter in some areas. 

People often say that these things have a tendency to balance out, which they have done at times in the past, but with an uncertain climate, I don't think we can rely on that so much these days, living in hope that we'll have heavy rain after a period of drought. 

 

On a personal note, if it does lash it down all winter, it'll be bittersweet for me, as I  outside a lot of the time, and I can't say it's much fun, even if we do need it, I'll still be hacked off if it rains every day for weeks

Thanks...great post. Nice to have info on 1976 as that is the drought i remember the most as i was 15 at the time and coming back from a weeks holiday in Frinton through the storms that occurred on that breakdown day.

I agree that the old certainties of things balancing themselves out no longer apply in the way they did back then...it seems to me that forecasting the weather has become harder during latter years....whether that is true or not i dont know but it appears that way...

I also work outside as a gardener so am often conflicted when we do have the rare wet days as it causes problems for me but i know it is what we need...if this continues then the way we garden down here will.have to drastically change i think...getting very skeptical about any rain forecasts now...

[hillbilly]

1 hour ago, richie3846 said:

 

I've been researching into the drought of 1976, to see how it compares to this year. People have gone on the record and said it's not as serious as 1976, because we have much better reservoir levels, and the first part of 76 was much drier than this year. 

These are valid points, but I'd like to draw attention to two things. Firstly, this graphic is the maximum soil moisture deficit for the peak of the drought. Soil moisture deficits in the south this year, at the end of July, we not far off these extreme figures of 76. The number of places that missed the majority of August's showers this year, may have deficits approaching or even exceeding 76, right now. With little rain in the forecast, it's likely that places in the south will have deficits of 150mm like 1976.

 

Secondly, the 76 drought ended in a flash. It was all over by October, thanks to a wet autumn. What has changed in the UK since then, is that autumn in some years, many years, have now become summer extensions. Whilst there is a reasonable chance of a wet autumn of course, statistically speaking, there is a greater chance than 76 of a less wet autumn, as we all know how many September to October periods of recent times have been quite dry (a couple have been very wet too). I'm not making this up either, the met office recently went on record to discuss September becoming an extension of summer, in a podcast. 

 

Given the higher temperatures, longer growing season, and higher risk of a settled autumn, this current very severe drought has the potential to extend into next year if we have rainfall October to March below average, even just a little below average. Even in average rainfall from September onwards, there will be some delay to the groundwater recharge season, because it'll take longer than usual to replenish the 150mm dry soils, which is a good 40 to 50mm drier than average, which for some is almost a month of average rain. 

So fingers crossed for some decent rainfall this winter, as without it, things could become very difficult next year. Even with average rain, groundwater could still be below average until the following winter in some areas. 

People often say that these things have a tendency to balance out, which they have done at times in the past, but with an uncertain climate, I don't think we can rely on that so much these days, living in hope that we'll have heavy rain after a period of drought. 

 

On a personal note, if it does lash it down all winter, it'll be bittersweet for me, as I work outside a lot of the time, and I can't say it's much fun, even if we do need it, I'll still be hacked off if it rains every day for weeks

I have no doubt that some areas are drier than 1976 and 1995.Here in the Pennines it was drier in 1995 ,not only that 1995 drought did not suddenly end but also had a dry winter 1995/1996,so much so many resevoirs did not get much above 50% and working on the farm land where some years we struggle to get on with tractors in summer was so dry we could tow heavy loads across in the depths of winter,totally unprecedented i my lifetime so yes it is possible for this drought to continue into next year.Fortunately we have had some brief showery spells this last week and a good spell of medium rain for much of the afternoon,the most rain here since spring.

 

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

I have no doubt that some areas are drier than 1976 and 1995.Here in the Pennines it was drier in 1995 ,not only that 1995 drought did not suddenly end but also had a dry winter 1995/1996,so much so many resevoirs did not get much above 50% and working on the farm land where some years we struggle to get on with tractors in summer was so dry we could tow heavy loads across in the depths of winter,totally unprecedented i my lifetime so yes it is possible for this drought to continue into next year.Fortunately we have had some brief showery spells this last week and a good spell of medium rain for much of the afternoon,the most rain here since spring.

 

At a different juncture to 1975-76 and 95-96.. the dry theme set in last November bar the odd wet spell a la Feb. About 9 months in now, equivalent to Dec 95 and Feb 76. 

[HighPressure]

4 hours ago, richie3846 said:

 

I've been researching into the drought of 1976, to see how it compares to this year. People have gone on the record and said it's not as serious as 1976, because we have much better reservoir levels, and the first part of 76 was much drier than this year. 

These are valid points, but I'd like to draw attention to two things. Firstly, this graphic is the maximum soil moisture deficit for the peak of the drought. Soil moisture deficits in the south this year, at the end of July, we not far off these extreme figures of 76. The number of places that missed the majority of August's showers this year, may have deficits approaching or even exceeding 76, right now. With little rain in the forecast, it's likely that places in the south will have deficits of 150mm like 1976.

 

Secondly, the 76 drought ended in a flash. It was all over by October, thanks to a wet autumn. What has changed in the UK since then, is that autumn in some years, many years, have now become summer extensions. Whilst there is a reasonable chance of a wet autumn of course, statistically speaking, there is a greater chance than 76 of a less wet autumn, as we all know how many September to October periods of recent times have been quite dry (a couple have been very wet too). I'm not making this up either, the met office recently went on record to discuss September becoming an extension of summer, in a podcast. 

 

Given the higher temperatures, longer growing season, and higher risk of a settled autumn, this current very severe drought has the potential to extend into next year if we have rainfall October to March below average, even just a little below average. Even in average rainfall from September onwards, there will be some delay to the groundwater recharge season, because it'll take longer than usual to replenish the 150mm dry soils, which is a good 40 to 50mm drier than average, which for some is almost a month of average rain. 

So fingers crossed for some decent rainfall this winter, as without it, things could become very difficult next year. Even with average rain, groundwater could still be below average until the following winter in some areas. 

People often say that these things have a tendency to balance out, which they have done at times in the past, but with an uncertain climate, I don't think we can rely on that so much these days, living in hope that we'll have heavy rain after a period of drought. 

 

On a personal note, if it does lash it down all winter, it'll be bittersweet for me, as I work outside a lot of the time, and I can't say it's much fun, even if we do need it, I'll still be hacked off if it rains every day for weeks

I think the problem with comparing 1976 to this year is that we know how 1976 ended, the rains came. We simply don't have a crystal ball to see how this autumn and winter will play out. 

[Daniel*]

8 hours ago, Nick L said:

Another totally dry day here. Can't wait for the end of month anomaly maps, we must be the driest part of the UK for August.

No you’re not areas to SE of London missed showers and everything. I’m on 3.8mm for the month this follows 0.4mm in July.

[richie3846]

4 hours ago, HighPressure said:

I think the problem with comparing 1976 to this year is that we know how 1976 ended, the rains came. We simply don't have a crystal ball to see how this autumn and winter will play out. 

That's all part of the excitement of following the weather. This graphic shows the 76 situation at the same point in the summer we find ourselves now, so it's a comparable snapshot of the moment, and we are in terms of soil dryness, very similar, and we know that groundwater is a little healthier in 22 compared to 76, though I haven't got exact figures on hand. Each drought is unique as they say, and this one will be no different in that respect. What's different about this one is watching it unfold in a changing climate, compared with 76, as we don't live in the same situation any more, and if truth be told, there are uncertainties about our climate which we've yet to see, and we don't know how this may play out and affect things in a drought period of this severity. 

 

I for one, will be watching very closely to the facts this winter, and seeing for myself how this drought pans out. At this stage you are right, we can only compare to a certain moment in time with 76, and if in 76 it didn't rain that autumn, things may have turned out very differently. 

 

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

No you’re not areas to SE of London missed showers and everything. I’m on 3.8mm for the month this follows 0.4mm in July.

After checking through the cumulative radar for August as well as a few local stations just SE of London, we are definitely drier. Roughly a line from Aylesbury to west Norfolk have missed absolutely everything pretty much. 2.4mm here for the month. Really is remarkable...

Edited August 23, 2022 by Nick L

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

After checking through the cumulative radar for August as well as a few local stations just SE of London, we are definitely drier. Roughly a line from Aylesbury to west Norfolk have missed absolutely everything pretty much. 2.4mm here for the month. Really is remarkable...

What's also remarkable is the drought in West Wales. It's not often that area is short of a drop of rain.

[Nick L]

Ironically, we've just had enough drizzle in the last hour to add 0.2mm to our monthly total.

[mb018538]

12 hours ago, RJBingham said:

Todays rain has been cancelled then 

 

12 hours ago, Nick L said:

Another totally dry day here. Can't wait for the end of month anomaly maps, we must be the driest part of the UK for August.

Was exactly the same here. Another day that promised much but delivered zilch yet again. We've had 2.7mm here in August.

[Puddy Galore]

37 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Was exactly the same here. Another day that promised much but delivered zilch yet again. We've had 2.7mm here in August.

 

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

Ironically, we've just had enough drizzle in the last hour to add 0.2mm to our monthly total.

Same here.  The forecast at the end of last week for yesterday looked quite good for a decent drop of rain but by Sunday we were forecast very little rain.  We had an occasional light shower yesterday but not even enough to wet the garden slabs