Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[Jamie M]

That storm near Dover is absolutely mental.

So many flashes! 

 

 

[Mesoscale]

 

 

Edited August 16, 2022 by Mesoscale

[biddie]

44 minutes ago, Harry said:

Can see the lightning from the France/Belgium storms

Kent clipper just started at Dover but French storms much bigger and growing. Will hit South east 

[biddie]

6 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

 

 

Wow nothing on map

[Mesoscale]

1 minute ago, biddie said:

Wow nothing on map

Its from the Dover cam. 

[biddie]

2 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Its from the Dover cam. 

Sorry could swear it said Watford lol but that's just where you are

Edited August 16, 2022 by biddie

[Jamie M]

 

Brilliant garden viewing.

[Norfolk Sheep]

2 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

 

Brilliant garden viewing.

V Envious!

[LightningLover]

Managed to catch a glimpse of the Kent storm from here in Bexhill... Plenty of flashes with the occasional flat thud of very distant thunder. Some odd acoustics going on with sea mist presumably, as the thunder sounded odd with no reverberation! 

Just checked Met office precipitation forecasts, clearly going for something interesting along the East Sussex Coastline by 04:00/05:00... As ever we will see!

Edited August 16, 2022 by LightningLover

[Snow Queen one]

I am in Maidstone wishing the storm would visit me.  Sadly i do not hold out much hope at all

[Allseasons-Si]

A bit late to the party but been lurking as i have been viewing the Iceland volcano but anywhere in this circled area could develop more storms.

 

[Sprites]

I've seen two flashes from the Kent storm, it's not very active ATM. 

Would you believe it the sferics have gone to meet the windfarms. 

Very murky hereabouts now,so getting to bed.

 

 

Edited August 17, 2022 by Sprites

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wonder if we could see a rare offshore MCS develop as the nocturnal hours wear on? See temps out there are around 19-21c! So shouldn’t be a problem sustaining instability! More stuff seems to be developing in the channel too. 

[Jamie M]

30 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Wonder if we could see a rare offshore MCS develop as the nocturnal hours wear on? See temps out there are around 19-21c! So shouldn’t be a problem sustaining instability! More stuff seems to be developing in the channel too. 

Would be typical aye. Bet it'd die the second it touched a fraction of land too! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

5 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Would be typical aye. Bet it'd die the second it touched a fraction of land too! 

Only in the UK . 
Look at that thing over S France at the moment between Montpellier and Marseille. Going absolutely nuts!! 

[Row w]

Unfortunately no thunder to report but some much needed heavy rain from around 10ish last night and has only just stopped so a good watering for the ground. Just a shame there was no electrical activity 

[matty40s]

For those who cant sleep and missed out on action, try Toulon for the next hour or so, a beast on the way. 

https://toulon.fr/webcam-plages

 

 

 

 

Edited August 17, 2022 by matty40s

[matty40s]

 

[Guest]

Lots of cloud debris piling across the channel into southern areas. Surface heating could be a real problem again today 

 

[Tommytomtom]

Local weather station. Im glad the river wreake was at is lowest level before we got this yesterday evening. There had been no rainfall up to 630pm

[Supacell]

14 hours ago, Supacell said:

Apparently 23⁰c was the required temperature, which was hit. There are more storm developing to the south which could still impact Lincoln. However I think I am going to move south.

I decided not to head south and instead stayed on the Lincolnshire cells after they suddenly sprung into life, unfortunately about 8 miles to my north and moving away. So I ended up chasing along flooded roads to eventually catch the "more active" part of the storm up. It wasn't easy as couldn't really drive fast on such wet roads.

By the time I caught it the lightning activity was shown to have died out on the detectors but I was still seeing the occasional flash. That was how I would describe the weather. Lots of torrential rain, flooding and the occasional flash of lightning. Some periods of more gusty winds at times too, probably outflow from dying cells before new ones sprung to life nearby.

Things did pick up a bit towards evening just east of Louth with a bit more lightning, and by now it was dusk so the lightning appeared a bit brighter. Having said that, it looked like dusk at 6pm! Need to check back through footage but I should have caught one CG whilst driving. Overall though, not a lot of T&L but not a bust either. In this rubbish year for storms, I guess beggars can't be choosers. 

It is the turn of the south today to see storms but I won't be chasing as I have other commitments. Rough guess, M4 southwards looks a good bet, especially the Eastern parts of southern England.

[Gordon Webb]

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 17 Aug 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 18 Aug 2022

ISSUED 07:26 UTC Wed 17 Aug 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cut-off upper low lingers over the Bay of Biscay through Wednesday, slowly filling in-situ. At the surface, a warm, humid airmass (dewpoints 15-18C) will be slowly scoured away southeastwards by a cold front, this marking the boundary to somewhat fresher conditions for the remainder of the week.

A rather messy evolution is once again anticipated, with extensive cloud and areas of showery rain, perhaps with embedded thunderstorms, across parts of central and southern Britain first thing on Wednesday morning. With time much of the general precipitation should weaken and decay, with cloud breaks allowing better surface heating across southern England and East Anglia, and potentially yielding 1,000-1,500 J/kg CAPE in places. Scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms may develop in response to sea breeze convergence and some upslope flow over the Downs, Dartmoor etc. Broadly east of the Isle of Wight the steering winds will attempt to push showers to the W or NW (ie parellel to the coast or even further inland), while west of the IoW showers/storms should drift offshore. Therefore, although shear is still relatively weak it is arguably stronger across SE England to enable some level of cell organisation, and (like Tuesday afternoon in Norfolk) an isolated supercell may just be possible. Any organised storms would be capable of producing hail perhaps to 2cm in diameter, and to a lesser extent strong gusts of wind. Perhaps of greater concern more widely in southern England and East Anglia is the risk of local flash flooding given slow-moving torrential downpours and potential for back-building, which is the primary reason for issuing a SVR.

 

 

[Biggin]

Showers forming north of Brighton.

[minus10]

15 minutes ago, Never On Topic said:

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 17 Aug 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 18 Aug 2022

ISSUED 07:26 UTC Wed 17 Aug 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cut-off upper low lingers over the Bay of Biscay through Wednesday, slowly filling in-situ. At the surface, a warm, humid airmass (dewpoints 15-18C) will be slowly scoured away southeastwards by a cold front, this marking the boundary to somewhat fresher conditions for the remainder of the week.

A rather messy evolution is once again anticipated, with extensive cloud and areas of showery rain, perhaps with embedded thunderstorms, across parts of central and southern Britain first thing on Wednesday morning. With time much of the general precipitation should weaken and decay, with cloud breaks allowing better surface heating across southern England and East Anglia, and potentially yielding 1,000-1,500 J/kg CAPE in places. Scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms may develop in response to sea breeze convergence and some upslope flow over the Downs, Dartmoor etc. Broadly east of the Isle of Wight the steering winds will attempt to push showers to the W or NW (ie parellel to the coast or even further inland), while west of the IoW showers/storms should drift offshore. Therefore, although shear is still relatively weak it is arguably stronger across SE England to enable some level of cell organisation, and (like Tuesday afternoon in Norfolk) an isolated supercell may just be possible. Any organised storms would be capable of producing hail perhaps to 2cm in diameter, and to a lesser extent strong gusts of wind. Perhaps of greater concern more widely in southern England and East Anglia is the risk of local flash flooding given slow-moving torrential downpours and potential for back-building, which is the primary reason for issuing a SVR.

 

 

Got to hope that these cloud breaks happen otherwise no more avtivity for herts. May be too far north anyway...in which case this 'thundery' spell will be another bust for here. Not hopeful about Sundays rain either so....hey ho..

[Harry]

Much more humid feeling today! Hardly surprising given the narrow air temperature-dew point spread. Could be an interesting day, even if there aren’t sparks, this stuffy air is going to get wrung out like a sponge.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Harry