Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[Weather-history]

On 29/08/2022 at 15:42, Wivenswold said:

A little reminder from this Map from The Met Office. If you want to improve your chances of seeing storms, move to the darkest blue area. 

 

On 29/08/2022 at 22:07, ResonantChannelThunder said:

 

Here are the last three calendar years' thunderstorm days, thanks to Convective Weather ( @staplehurst)

 

I love seeing this more localised data year-on-year, and of course, add it all together over many more years and broadly speaking, you'd match the Met Office map there!

The one issue I have with "days of thunder" data is it could literally be one clap of thunder.

3 claps of thunder, the whole month, on 3 different days,  3 days of thunder but in reality, it was almost thunderless the month. 

Whilst you could have an almighty thunderstorm on just one day, down as just 1 day of thunder but you could have heard hundreds of thunderclaps.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Weather-history

[Eagle Eye]

26 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Plenty going on on this morning's ECM. One of those runs that's too good to be true, storm wise. If it came off though...

Even if only next Friday comes off on it a lot of people in the SE would be happy.

Imagine that amount of frequent lightning that its showing but in real life.

3/6 hour average

7PM

[The Tall Weatherman]

Looking interesting for the weekend and possibly further now. The ECM, NMM, UKV and many other models are supportive of storms. Friday is looking like the possible first day of action with <1000 situating for a time over east anglia, however there is not much model agreement with this day but more on The weekend and the  push early into the week, although then it does look like much of the cape will be out at sea. As we all know things can definitely change from this timeframe so we should wait a bit.

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Even if only next Friday comes off on it a lot of people in the SE would be happy.

Imagine that amount of frequent lightning that its showing but in real life.

3/6 hour average

7PM

It also shows one hell of a wind storm:

From that it looks like elevated storms breaking out ahead of the main system. You don't often see charts like this! It'll probably be gone on the next run, but until then I'll have some of whatever it's smoking!

[UnderTheAnvil]

52 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

It also shows one hell of a wind storm:

From that it looks like elevated storms breaking out ahead of the main system. You don't often see charts like this! It'll probably be gone on the next run, but until then I'll have some of whatever it's smoking!

Have they accidentally put us in monsoon season or something on the models? lol

[The Tall Weatherman]

What everyone’s talking about I just realised is very concerning. The NHC has a medium risk of development along central subtropical Atlantic, based on the ECMWF the depression quickly intensifies into a low end hurricane and barrels towards the Bay of biscay before darting north into south England. This probably won’t happen but It’s a first time I have seen a run like that !

[Thunders]

Hopefully  storms occur next week

Edited August 31, 2022 by Thunders

[WeatherArc]

Mondays 12z ECMWF went crazy with DLS for Sunday, up to 80 kn in some places. While further runs have slightly downgraded the values I do hope that there is the possibility of some long lived, well sheared storms.

Edited August 31, 2022 by WeatherArc

[Saint coolio]

Saw my first close up supercell yesterday in Catalonia. We were probably 5-6 miles from the centre and still had golf ball sized hail, 50mph gusts, continuous lightning. My Spanish ain’t great but it seems like cloud heights of 20km? (Is that possible)

Unfortunately an infant died from hail in the neighbouring town as well as 70+ injured. 10+ cm hail. Insane damage. We hadn’t really heard much of it, and coincidentally went there today souvenir shopping and ended up looking in awe at hundreds of smashed windscreens, roofs, trees etc.  One of the pottery places we went had a corrugated metal roof which was smashed to pieces by the hail. Police, firemen, media everywhere.

have a few pics which I’ll share if I can anonymise a few things.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Saint coolio

[Harry's House]

15 minutes ago, Saint coolio said:

Saw my first close up supercell yesterday in Catalonia. We were probably 5-6 miles from the centre and still had golf ball sized hail, 50mph gusts, continuous lightning. My Spanish ain’t great but it seems like cloud heights of 20km? (Is that possible)

Unfortunately an infant died from hail in the neighbouring town as well as 70+ injured. 10+ cm hail. Insane damage. We hadn’t really heard much of it, and coincidentally went there today souvenir shopping and ended up looking in awe at hundreds of smashed windscreens, roofs, trees etc.  One of the pottery places we went had a corrugated metal roof which was smashed to pieces by the hail. Police, firemen, media everywhere.

have a few pics which I’ll share if I can anonymise a few things.

I make 20km to be 66000 feet. I have heard of cloud tops of 70000 feet.

[Rufus Butterfield]

29 minutes ago, Saint coolio said:

Saw my first close up supercell yesterday in Catalonia. We were probably 5-6 miles from the centre and still had golf ball sized hail, 50mph gusts, continuous lightning. My Spanish ain’t great but it seems like cloud heights of 20km? (Is that possible)

Unfortunately an infant died from hail in the neighbouring town as well as 70+ injured. 10+ cm hail. Insane damage. We hadn’t really heard much of it, and coincidentally went there today souvenir shopping and ended up looking in awe at hundreds of smashed windscreens, roofs, trees etc.  One of the pottery places we went had a corrugated metal roof which was smashed to pieces by the hail. Police, firemen, media everywhere.

have a few pics which I’ll share if I can anonymise a few things.

please share if you can, we'd love to see any pictures!

[Saint coolio]

Not sure if this’ll work. It’s a corrugated steel roof with holes punched through by hailstones

Scan 31 Aug 2022.pdf

[Saint coolio]

1 minute ago, Saint coolio said:

Not sure if this’ll work. It’s a corrugated steel roof with holes punched through by hailstones

Scan 31 Aug 2022.pdf 349.24 kB · 1 download

One of hundreds if not thousands of damaged vehicles. That’s a transit van or similar, one hailstone impact. Some cars had all their windows smashed and roofs half caved in

 

[The PIT]

Surprised there weren't more injuries or death. If you drop a marble from the top floor of high rise flats it will shatter a paving stone. Hail will heavier and falling from a greater height. The only thing slowing them will be updraughts.

[Arnie Pie]

4 hours ago, The PIT said:

Surprised there weren't more injuries or death. If you drop a marble from the top floor of high rise flats it will shatter a paving stone. Hail will heavier and falling from a greater height. The only thing slowing them will be updraughts.

Sadly

Giant hailstones kill toddler and injure 50 people in Spanish town - Birmingham Live

WWW.BIRMINGHAMMAIL.CO.UK

---

A violent hailstorm has lead to the death of a little girl in Catalonia

 

[Jamie M]

Waterspout off Norfolk earlier

[viking_smb]

Just now, Jamie M said:

Waterspout off Norfolk earlier

wow

[ChannelThunder]

I'm in the middle of the SLT for tonight. Expecting some sporadic lightning about, possibly staying well out in the channel but we'll see. Interesting that Dan mentions some (rare) surface based storms could occur over the sea due to warm SSTs

[Harry]

59 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

I'm in the middle of the SLT for tonight. Expecting some sporadic lightning about, possibly staying well out in the channel but we'll see. Interesting that Dan mentions some (rare) surface based storms could occur over the sea due to warm SSTs

Have not been following charts too closely of late. Therefore find myself surprised to see threat of activity so soon ahead of what could be a lengthy period of storm potential.

Have attached the latest phone app forecast which has been pretty consistent now for several days ️

[Eagle Eye]

The shower around sunrise today

 

Ignore my hat at the top right corner, was trying to keep my phone from getting wet.

[chapmanslade]

18 hours ago, Saint coolio said:

Not sure if this’ll work. It’s a corrugated steel roof with holes punched through by hailstones

Scan 31 Aug 2022.pdf 349.24 kB · 18 downloads

Corrugated fibre board rather than steel - hence holes not dents

[Lynxus]

59 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

Corrugated fibre board rather than steel - hence holes not dents

Wow..

I hope we dont get hail like that.

Just had a nice big solar array installed lol

[Mesoscale]

The clouds are showing instability, could we finally get a storm, probably not but we can hope. 

[Argyle10]

I'm away at Romney, wonder if I will get anything? 

[minus10]

Pretty underwhelming so far however this is only the start so lets hope for better action to follow...on the rain front i would be happy for at least 5mm per day which is what the met office 10 day trend had as reasonable probabilities for much of the south east ...lets see shall we...will be monitoring from today onwards...