What year and what month do you think our U.K. climate start to change?

[Sunny76]

And what year started having more warmer than average months, compared to colder ones?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

January 1998 or around then for winters

[Sunny76]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

January 1998 or around then for winters

I would have said December 1987 to May 1988, as this was the first period that contained more than 3-4 warmer than average months. Not seen since the early 1970s or even further back.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I would say it was probably the mid to late 1980s when mild winters started to become more commonplace. I was born in '91, and whilst I remember some cold snowy winters at times, they were nothing like what my parents experienced during their childhoods. Because of this, my mother felt sorry for me that I couldn't have as much fun in the snow as she did when she was a child.

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[damianslaw]

24 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I would say it was probably the mid to late 1980s when mild winters started to become more commonplace. I was born in '91, and whilst I remember some cold snowy winters at times, they were nothing like what my parents experienced during their childhoods. Because of this, my mother felt sorry for me that I couldn't have as much fun in the snow as she did when she was a child.

 

1900s to 1930s winters were generally much less cold than 1940s to 1980s winters.

If thinking of last 100 yrs or so, there was a shift late 80s to much warmer years, more milder than colder months, step change months Dec 87, Feb 97, Jul 13. Summer 08 to Summer 13 though brought a colder period interestingly after an exceptionally warm period Summer 06 to Summer 08 bar summer months of 07. Dec 10 came slap bang in the middle of that period.

Edited October 5, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

1988 was when it became more obvious that our climate was perhaps changing and by 1989 there was a lot of talk about the greenhouse effect. 

[Snowy L]

Winter 13/14. First time I ever experienced a snowless winter (zero accumulating snow, and this includes dustings).

[LetItSnow!]

Ended up typing a whole paragraph, my bad.

 

It’s been different stages really. You could argue the first change began in March 1895. The winter of 1895 was extremely brutal but began to moderate into the spring, after which we wouldn’t see such a deeply severe winter again until January 1940. 

Then a phase down in temperatures that lasted 20 years began.

You could argue the second shift started in February 1982. It was after the brutally cold spell of December 1981-January 1982 that the temperatures moderated to near normal, and then the rest of the year generally stuck around average to quite warmer than average. Europe as a whole had a very warm year in 1982 and we were on the boundary of this, but it still was a relatively small shift and colder than normal spells of weather still occurred, though 1983 and 1984 were fairly warm overall, both with hot summers (especially 1983), and occasional winter warmth (January 1983 especially)- then another phase down in temperatures lasted from 1985 through to 1987.

The third, more pronounced shift, seems to occur in October 1987. While I don’t think the Great Storm caused things to change, it seems a fitting moment to pinpoint a generalised change. 1987 as a whole was a bizarre year for the weather, with wild swings and extreme events - the cold spell in January, freak warmth in April, an exceptionally poor summer, and then the storm in October. Warm weather patterns actually began to set up in September 1987, but a cold snap at the end of the month + a NW/SE divide mask it with near normal temperatures.

From the moment the storm passed, weather patterns seemingly changed very quickly across Europe. The mark in temperature increase in the winters is astounding really, especially compared the the mostly cold winters centred from 1977 to 1987. Despite this, the winter of 1987/1988 I don’t regard as overly unusual in itself - it did feature exceptionally mild and second-half of December, but you could argue that a properly mild winter was overdue and it wasn’t a without transient snow here and there + it wasn’t an exceptionally mild winter overall. It stayed generally mild through the spring of 1988, before a sharp cool-down once again through the summer and the winter, which may have given a false sense of going back to normal, but the biggest shift comes in December 1988 when things truly change in a big way. From December 1988 all through to late 1990, the blowtorch is applied. We get two remarkably mild, snowless winters back to back, two hot summers, the latter with record-breaking temperatures, and generally mild springs and autumns too. You can add to that a drought as well, which wouldn’t end properly until 1992. 

That warmth has lasted almost non-stop ever since. There have been colder blips here and there, most notably 1996 and 2007-2013. The brief change in climate back to colder, wetter conditions from June 2007 to June 2013 was interesting and I know some people at the time thought that was the new normal, but alas, July 2013 came in and it’s pretty much been warm ever since. The only colder blip I can think of was 2020-2021 but that has well and truly been put in its place. 

I think you can argue another shift has taken place since July 2015, the “heat spike” era. Generally I feel temperatures have stayed somewhat stable during the past 30 years but this new phenomena is now making each summer feel rather daunting to say the least. In 2021 when we had none, I thought that perhaps it was just a freak anomaly, but the heatwave of July 2022 has me feeling troubled. We’ll see.

 

Where we go next is interesting. Perhaps man made efforts to artificially cool us will prevail. I think it’s inevitable, personally. 

[John88B]

The UK climate has changed since time began.

[cheeky_monkey]

IMO it became noticeable after the early 1990s ..so im going to say 1994..there were some still pretty widespread wintry spells in winter after 1987...they seemed to disappear in the most part after 1994 with the odd exception (Dec 1995 for example)..if you guys today had a February 1994 cold spell you would be dancing in the streets..back then it was almost the norm for this to happen every other year ...so was pretty meh and forgettable at the time. 

[Katrine Basso]

I would say in the 70's but it was a slow and gradual change.  Winters in the 70's where wholly snowless and it is when we had the drought in the mid 70's which I would never forget as their were standpipes where we would collect water from where my family and I lived in Esk Road in Plaistow in East end of London. The pavements were boiling hot and you could fry an egg on them.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

IMO it became noticeable after the early 1990s ..so im going to say 1994..there were some still pretty widespread wintry spells in winter after 1987...they seemed to disappear in the most part after 1994 with the odd exception (Dec 1995 for example)..if you guys today had a February 1994 cold spell you would be dancing in the streets..back then it was almost the norm for this to happen every other year ...so was pretty meh and forgettable at the time. 

88-89, 89-90 winters up there with warmest on record, apart from Feb 91 there wasn't a cold month between Dec 87 and Feb 94. 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

88-89, 89-90 winters up there with warmest on record, apart from Feb 91 there wasn't a cold month between Dec 87 and Feb 94. 

November 1993 was chilly, and the summer of 1993 was shockingly poor. 

[Weather-history]

On 05/10/2022 at 17:45, Sunny76 said:

And what year started having more warmer than average months, compared to colder ones?

The way you worded your query I think forgets that the CET goes back to 1659 and it depends on  what "average" is.  The answer is going to be way way back. 
 

[cheeky_monkey]

56 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

November 1993 was chilly, and the summer of 1993 was shockingly poor. 

yep Dec 1991 was pretty cold esp mid month with a few ice days..also Nov 93 and Dec 93 were rather cold and wintry..plus the snow of Dec 1990 ..summer 1992 wasnt anything to write home about either

Edited October 6, 2022 by cheeky_monkey

[Sunny76]

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

yep Dec 1991 was pretty cold esp mid month with a few ice days..also Nov 93 and Dec 93 were rather cold and wintry..plus the snow of Dec 1990 

I think 1994 was another stage, as that autumn seemed to introduce more warmer October spells.

Winter 94/95 was very mild and the mild November just before it. Central London recorded 21c in early November that year. 

[Sunny76]

19 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Ended up typing a whole paragraph, my bad.

 

It’s been different stages really. You could argue the first change began in March 1895. The winter of 1895 was extremely brutal but began to moderate into the spring, after which we wouldn’t see such a deeply severe winter again until January 1940. 

Then a phase down in temperatures that lasted 20 years began.

You could argue the second shift started in February 1982. It was after the brutally cold spell of December 1981-January 1982 that the temperatures moderated to near normal, and then the rest of the year generally stuck around average to quite warmer than average. Europe as a whole had a very warm year in 1982 and we were on the boundary of this, but it still was a relatively small shift and colder than normal spells of weather still occurred, though 1983 and 1984 were fairly warm overall, both with hot summers (especially 1983), and occasional winter warmth (January 1983 especially)- then another phase down in temperatures lasted from 1985 through to 1987.

The third, more pronounced shift, seems to occur in October 1987. While I don’t think the Great Storm caused things to change, it seems a fitting moment to pinpoint a generalised change. 1987 as a whole was a bizarre year for the weather, with wild swings and extreme events - the cold spell in January, freak warmth in April, an exceptionally poor summer, and then the storm in October. Warm weather patterns actually began to set up in September 1987, but a cold snap at the end of the month + a NW/SE divide mask it with near normal temperatures.

From the moment the storm passed, weather patterns seemingly changed very quickly across Europe. The mark in temperature increase in the winters is astounding really, especially compared the the mostly cold winters centred from 1977 to 1987. Despite this, the winter of 1987/1988 I don’t regard as overly unusual in itself - it did feature exceptionally mild and second-half of December, but you could argue that a properly mild winter was overdue and it wasn’t a without transient snow here and there + it wasn’t an exceptionally mild winter overall. It stayed generally mild through the spring of 1988, before a sharp cool-down once again through the summer and the winter, which may have given a false sense of going back to normal, but the biggest shift comes in December 1988 when things truly change in a big way. From December 1988 all through to late 1990, the blowtorch is applied. We get two remarkably mild, snowless winters back to back, two hot summers, the latter with record-breaking temperatures, and generally mild springs and autumns too. You can add to that a drought as well, which wouldn’t end properly until 1992. 

That warmth has lasted almost non-stop ever since. There have been colder blips here and there, most notably 1996 and 2007-2013. The brief change in climate back to colder, wetter conditions from June 2007 to June 2013 was interesting and I know some people at the time thought that was the new normal, but alas, July 2013 came in and it’s pretty much been warm ever since. The only colder blip I can think of was 2020-2021 but that has well and truly been put in its place. 

I think you can argue another shift has taken place since July 2015, the “heat spike” era. Generally I feel temperatures have stayed somewhat stable during the past 30 years but this new phenomena is now making each summer feel rather daunting to say the least. In 2021 when we had none, I thought that perhaps it was just a freak anomaly, but the heatwave of July 2022 has me feeling troubled. We’ll see.

 

Where we go next is interesting. Perhaps man made efforts to artificially cool us will prevail. I think it’s inevitable, personally. 

Where did you find out the temps across Europe increased after The Great Storm?

Maybe something was displaced during that event, which allowed more Atlantic winds and weaker northerlies. 

[LetItSnow!]

2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Where did you find out the temps across Europe increased after The Great Storm?

Maybe something was displaced during that event, which allowed more Atlantic winds and weaker northerlies. 

Weather patterns quickly shifted, with much less easterly influences and overall milder winters and much hotter summers.

Here is the temperature anomaly of the winters between 1976/1977 and 1986/1987. You can see that NW Europe had an unusually cold period of winters, particularly across Scandinavia. Warming across Iceland and further north shows the increased blocking in this time.

Compare that to the following 10 winters.

 

You can see the difference in the annual anomalies too. This is 1988, a year that is a turning point from the old climate and the new in many places across the world.

1989 even more of a positive anomaly.

1990 as well. 

The change was underway across the pond before this though. 1987 was freakishly warm across the US/Canada border.

I think as a whole though, the planet underwent big changes towards the end of the 1970s. 1980 into 1981 seems to be a turning point. The summer of 1980 was brutually hot across southern states and 1981 saw extensive, record warmth across Canada/US border. I think, globally, 1981 was one of, if not the warmest year globally, known at the time.

[Sunny76]

41 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Weather patterns quickly shifted, with much less easterly influences and overall milder winters and much hotter summers.

Here is the temperature anomaly of the winters between 1976/1977 and 1986/1987. You can see that NW Europe had an unusually cold period of winters, particularly across Scandinavia. Warming across Iceland and further north shows the increased blocking in this time.

Compare that to the following 10 winters.

 

You can see the difference in the annual anomalies too. This is 1988, a year that is a turning point from the old climate and the new in many places across the world.

1989 even more of a positive anomaly.

1990 as well. 

The change was underway across the pond before this though. 1987 was freakishly warm across the US/Canada border.

I think as a whole though, the planet underwent big changes towards the end of the 1970s. 1980 into 1981 seems to be a turning point. The summer of 1980 was brutually hot across southern states and 1981 saw extensive, record warmth across Canada/US border. I think, globally, 1981 was one of, if not the warmest year globally, known at the time.

Interesting read.

1980 was very hot across North America, especially during the summer.

Back home, and the first hint of the change for me was sitting at home on Christmas Day in 1987 and witnessing clear blue skies and relatively very mild temps. It came as quite a shock at the time.

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

November 1993 was chilly, and the summer of 1993 was shockingly poor. 

You mentioned cold winters, yes there were a few brief cold spells Dec 87 to Feb 94, Dec 90 mid month, late Nov 93, late Dec 93 in the north, mid to late Feb 94 but with exception of Feb 91, nothing particularly notable. The cold autumns of 92 and 93, chilly summers of 92 and 93, June 91 and cool summer 88 cancelled out by general anomalous warmth rest of time..  Autumn 88 to Autumn 92 waa exceptionally dry as well.

Edited October 6, 2022 by damianslaw

[Sunny76]

On 06/10/2022 at 14:24, cheeky_monkey said:

IMO it became noticeable after the early 1990s ..so im going to say 1994..there were some still pretty widespread wintry spells in winter after 1987...they seemed to disappear in the most part after 1994 with the odd exception (Dec 1995 for example)..if you guys today had a February 1994 cold spell you would be dancing in the streets..back then it was almost the norm for this to happen every other year ...so was pretty meh and forgettable at the time. 

February 1994 was still quite notable,  but I remember it being a tame affair compared to February 1991. 
 

Still, winter 93/94 produced some cold snaps.

94/95 ushered in a return to the milder winters of 87/88-89/90. 

[Greyhound81]

On 05/10/2022 at 18:22, damianslaw said:

1900s to 1930s winters were generally much less cold than 1940s to 1980s winters.

If thinking of last 100 yrs or so, there was a shift late 80s to much warmer years, more milder than colder months, step change months Dec 87, Feb 97, Jul 13. Summer 08 to Summer 13 though brought a colder period interestingly after an exceptionally warm period Summer 06 to Summer 08 bar summer months of 07. Dec 10 came slap bang in the middle of that period.

Interestingly in the Summer 08 to Summer 13 cold period, 2011 was one of the warmest years in the UK.  We have not had a year since 2013 when the annual CET has been below 10 degrees.

According to Piers Corbyn, 2013 is when the mini ice age is supposed to have begun.  Something to do with solar cycles apparantly, although I don't really take him seriously.

[reef]

It's impossible to put a date as there's never a simple "step-change". You'll always get warmer and cooler periods relative to the trend which is a gradual increase upwards of about 1.2C now.

You always got mild, snowless winters and warm, dry summers but as the baseline warms these become more likely. A 5.5C snowless winter seems no different to a 6.5C snowless one after all, but six such winters a decade instead of three is noticeable.

Likewise an 16.5C and 17.5C dry and sunny summer wouldn't be too much different, but getting them every three years instead of ten or so you notice.

[Sunny76]

Late 1987 seems like a time when more weather related incidents became more commonplace. 

[Thundery wintry showers]

Both in the UK and globally, we've seen two main periods of warming, one from the 1910s through to the 1940s, and another since the 1980s which is still ongoing today.

Globally, the current period of warming started in late 1979.  1980 and 1981 were the warmest years on record globally at the time, and, correcting for short-term fluctuations such as El Nino and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation, the warming has been very persistent since then.  It wasn't really a step-change, it just gradually became apparent that the warming was going beyond the normal bounds of natural climatic variability.  The realisation progressively set in during the globally warm years of 1987-1991 (especially around 1990), and with the globally warm year of 1995, and then the record smashing El Nino of 1997/98.  Since then, an apparent "hiatus/pause" in global warming raised hopes that things might be stablising, but this turned out to be a blip and also exacerbated by the lack of global coverage in the rapidly warming Arctic. 

In the UK, I don't think the latest phase of global warming had much of an effect on the regional climate until 1988-90, but the sense of "this is outside the normal bounds of variability" set in more abruptly.  1988 wasn't outstandingly warm, with a mild winter and several slightly warmer than average months but a cool summer, and while 1989 was a very warm year, it was synoptically unusual - in parts of east and especially north-east England, 1989 was the driest year on record by a sizeable margin.  But then with 1990, with its succession of (for that time) record breaking warm/hot spells and joint highest CET value, and record global warmth in 1988 and 1990, many people started realising that things had shifted.  A run of hot summers around the mid-1990s, especially 1995, and generally less snow than in previous decades, reinforced this perception.

Edited October 11, 2022 by Thundery wintry showers