Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[feb1991blizzard]

better alignment.

better alignment.

[Captain Shortwave]

The 18z GFS now looks pretty similar to the other output of the 12z suite.

 

A chilly easterly wind with showers pushing in off the North Sea. It looks like we will have a cut off high centred over Norway by day 8.
It is good to have some agreement on the continental feed establishing and as such a good building block for more significant events further down the line.

Edited November 24, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GFS 18z op looks cleaner and we're already with an easterly flow by the 30th 

[sheikhy]

Anyone know whats happened with the para lol?!!!

[Pembroke Dangler]

1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

GFS 18z op looks cleaner and we're already with an easterly flow by the 30th 

And look at the lower heights gaining around the med. could be a rip snorter of a run coming up here

[summer blizzard]

Euro tonight was cracking. Day 10 easterly flow of some sort from Russia to Florida. Winter finally arriving at day 10 too.

[LightningLover]

GFS going a similar route to the ECM here I think!

[Cheshire Freeze]

We need to be careful here that this doesn't become mid lat...we need the Atlantic trough to spit some energy SE and sever attachment to that Atlantic HP

It's perfectly fine if that Atlantic HP comes in at a sharper angle and sends WAA further N, but it doesn't here on the 18z.

Looks like we might just get away with it this run

Edited November 24, 2022 by CreweCold

[Ali1977]

Lining up nice now, exciting times ahead I hope. 

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We need to be careful here that this doesn't become mid lat...we need the Atlantic trough to spit some energy SE and sever attachment to that Atlantic HP

It's perfectly fine if that Atlantic HP comes in at a sharper angle and sends WAA further N, but it doesn't here on the 18z

I think that PV to our Nw Will just dissolve and the HP will retrogress

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

 

I think that PV to our Nw Will just dissolve and the HP will retrogress

That's the plan!

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We need to be careful here that this doesn't become mid lat...we need the Atlantic trough to spit some energy SE and sever attachment to that Atlantic HP

It's perfectly fine if that Atlantic HP comes in at a sharper angle and sends WAA further N, but it doesn't here on the 18z

Looks lovely to my eye at 240;and heights climbing upwards… not sinking towards mid

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Looks lovely to my eye at 240;and heights climbing upwards… not sinking towards mid

Looks like snow showers will start in the east around day 10 on this particular run  - it’s cold enough anyway. 

Edited November 24, 2022 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

That is now gfs ukmo and ecm on the same page!!!very rarely we see that!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Classic retrograde occurring by this point

The balance between each vortex lobe is nigh on perfection

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

That is now gfs ukmo and ecm on the same page!!!very rarely we see that!!

// is good as well.. and it does seem to be more consistent….. really please with today.. night gang.. I’ll peep from behind the sofa as a scroll through the night shift posts

[Ali1977]

If this run became reality we could be looking at atleast 10 days, possibly way longer in a cold East/NE/N feed, definitely a December to remember I’d say. A few more days to firm up on this yet though.

[Tim Bland]

Incoming …

[tight isobar]

Yep- the 18z would by now be delivering precipitation in the form of snow showers at least to the eastern parts- And as the formatted easterly takes hold.. its classic North Sea pop up features- perhaps penetrating frontal features well inland- hypothetical at this point- But becoming an increasing possibility!!

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Incoming …

528 Dam line about to sweep west - possible ice days from day 12.

[Uncertainty]

Our hopes and expectations 

Black holes and revelations!

 

PS

What kind of a jet profile is that? Azores to the Arctic!

 

Big time retrogression occurring on the pub run 

These are truly incredible charts for early December. 

[minus10]

Wow..

...to bed on that image....

[Neilsouth]

Unlike most winters I can remember, there has been a distinct lack of powerful wind storms but replaced with torrential downpours. It would be interesting if we get a harsh winter what with the record breaking heat we had this summer. Also as if it's doing a reset! Models are looking very good again with all of them with interest UKMO,GFS,ECM!

Not sure my energy bills will like it though

[Tim Bland]

Some hefty snow showers would be piling into the south east at this point ! 

[phil nw.]

If the block does retrogress towards Greenland or even part way watch that Siberian lobe head this way clockwise around and under the block

Air from the coldest source across a colder landmass by then.Then we really are talking bitter cold and snow.

It is another step but the way the ens are heading quite possible.

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's around this point- the 6th ish that will determine how the core of December goes.

Solid support really for an attempted ramp up of the vortex around this period...we don't want that block sinking away SW because with no heights left over Russia, the trop and strat would be free to couple.