Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[sheikhy]

Ecm 06z update!!identical to 00z at 90 hours!!!!❄

[Methuselah]

The only 'train' I'm on is the Moscow Express: as it now looks almost certain that we are in for a spell of mostly easterly-type weather -- whatever the Muscovites are enjoying today might very well arrive on our shores a week or so later? 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Ed Stone

[BlueHedgehog074]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The only 'train' I'm on is the Moscow Express: as it now looks almost certain that we are in for a spell of mostly easterly-type weather -- whatever the Muscovites are enjoying today might very well arrive on our shores a week or so later? 

That is certainly possible. Can’t be ruled out. 

[Derecho]

Don't see the point in getting stressed at the moment. FI is at T144-T168. The thing we need to look out for is how that Iberian low develops. If it is shallow, it reduces the chances of mild air coming up from the south and the block sinking over eastern Europe. Alternatively the low forms further east over Spain / Italy. The depth of the low wouldn't matter here.

Anything after that point is irrelevant and just for fun until this key detail is sorted.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Don't see the point in getting stressed at the moment. FI is at T144-T168. The thing we need to look out for is how that Iberian low develops. If it is shallow, it reduces the chances of mild air coming up from the south and the block sinking over eastern Europe. Alternatively the low forms further east over Spain / Italy. The depth of the low wouldn't matter here.

Anything after that point is irrelevant and just for fun until this key detail is sorted.

It's when the wrong trends start to emerge that it becomes a worry as we've been there before many a time, especially in recent years!

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

It's when the wrong trends start to emerge that it becomes a worry as we've been there before many a time, especially in recent years!

Indeed, still early at this point though. Models in the later stages are good for picking up signals but they can easily be overreacting to them. It means a cold spell can just vanish but it can also work the other way.

It's when we get to around T96-T120 that the time for stress arises!

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

It's when the wrong trends start to emerge that it becomes a worry as we've been there before many a time, especially in recent years!

Yes the trend is your friend

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

It's when the wrong trends start to emerge that it becomes a worry as we've been there before many a time, especially in recent years!

I understand your concerns Don good man,but we can't base every Winter season on past failings..I don't really think the weather sets us up to fail on purpose,it's just the way it rolls. What I think is some of us on here expect to see something of unreal proportions and expect every operational run to bring 100% satisfaction,and nothing in life will ever bring this...even the best professionals at there chosen event will make a mess and have you wondering if they really are an expert! 

I would say though that the current situation looks good...only problem is some want it to look perfect,then expect it to stay perfect with each and every run. What looks good today may look bad tomorrow,and vica versa.

[Frostbite80]

Its interesting to see that there is more scatter in the ensembles between the 5th and 7th December than after this date which has more emphasis on a colder option. I am guessing this is to do with the position of the Iberian low position and strength, however over all i am happy with the ensembles, especially moving into the second week of December. Just my thoughts....

[Earthshine]

GFS ensembles are rather uninspiring.  Cold, windy and grey.

[Tim Bland]

2 hours ago, Johnp said:

Sorry to go on about this but I find it incredible that all week people have been favouring the para when it was showing the best outcomes (“it’s going live in a few days” etc). 
It’s been showing a horror show for the last few runs and now it’s ignored. 
 

Horror show?  You must be new to this. In recent years these charts from the para would have coldies excited !

[NeilN]

2 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

GFS ensembles are rather uninspiring.  Cold, windy and grey.

To be honest with early winter, I'd take that. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

21 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I understand your concerns Don good man,but we can't base every Winter season on past failings..I don't really think the weather sets us up to fail on purpose,it's just the way it rolls. What I think is some of us on here expect to see something of unreal proportions and expect every operational run to bring 100% satisfaction,and nothing in life will ever bring this...even the best professionals at there chosen event will make a mess and have you wondering if they really are an expert! 

I would say though that the current situation looks good...only problem is some want it to look perfect,then expect it to stay perfect with each and every run. What looks good today may look bad tomorrow,and vica versa.

Good point. It just seems unrealistic for each and every run to be spot on. Sometimes, a model could throw out the most perfect outlook ever, but there’s always chances it gets watered down on the next run or so. So not a bad thing if the models aren’t always churning out appetising triple chocolate cake-esque runs. 

When you think about it, Northern blocking and bitterly cold Easterly or North-Easterly winds isn’t something that’s common at all during UK Winters. I think reminding ourselves of this can hopefully help to keep down some of our expectations. When blocking to the North of the UK does happen, it then, depending on a persons weather preferences, feels more magical. Especially also if it leads to snow and very cold conditions.

Edited November 27, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine

[sheikhy]

I seriously dunno whats goin on in this forum today!!!!im gona wait till the 12zs before i start throwing my toys out the pram and trust me im pretty good at it when things go wrong!!!

[Lord Baltimore]

It's going to be relatively dry and cool compared to recent times.  Things may progress into something more wintry as time progresses, but the models arnt at this stage able to identify what exactly. We have to wait and see.

[Methuselah]

I really don't see any need for negativity... Firstly, it's not even winter yet; and, secondly, the NH profile indicated really couldn't be much better regarding Blighty's chances of seeing some snow. Could it?

    

[bluearmy]

the frustration this morning is off a very high bar from yesterdays 12z ens suites 

we shouldn’t be surprised to see the swing to a little less wow - it could hardly get better in the 12=15 day period. 

obviously we now look to see if the swings of the 00z suites become entrenched on the 12z’s or perhaps go further ?  Of course the hope will be that we see a swing back to what was shown 24 hours ago. 

the medium term is also becoming messy and inconsistent so we could do with some more reliable guidance there too.

[Singularity]

I suppose it’s worth noting that the 00z GFS & ECM runs were quite a way short of the ensemble means for heights over Greenland 10 days from now. GFS 06z much more representative.

[Cold Winter Night]

Where do we stand at this moment? What can we be reasonably certain of, and what is yet to be decided?

I think up to 168h, next Sunday, the 4th of December, we can be fairly confident about the Scandi High building up to impressive size and strength. There is little to suggest anything else will happen.
EC, UKMO and GFS paint the same picture, with GFS6 the odd one out with regard to that Atlantic trough section merging with the Iberian Low.

The EPS regime chart shows Positive Blocking (Euro/Scandinavian block) and hints at retrogressing towards NAO- by going anti-clockwise later on.

The De Bilt EPS plume shows this too, with little spread up to December 4.
In Holland, there's an Easterly flow, resulting in cloudy weather, with temperatures slightly below average.

But after that, December 5 to the end of model output, that's where the spread starts getting larger.

- The block could hold, delaying retrogression, but also blocking CAA and deeper cold, with more of the same as before as a result.
- The block could retrogress, and allow CAA from the Northeast and bring in that cold, those are the cold options in De Bilt.
- The block could retrogress too far, and end up over the Hudson Bay/Baffin Bay, or the North Pole. The maligned West based -NAO. That would force the CAA out on the Atlantic and coldies would be left with empty hands in renewed (South-)Southwesterlies.

To balance all the dream charts, here's one from the GEFS 6z to illustrate the latter scenario to the extreme:

Although I must say, GEFS has moved away from the West-based -NAO a bit again. Perhaps the pendulum swings back.
It is actually very difficult to find ensemble members that really are terrible! Good sign IMO.

All of these options are still on the table though and no one can claim to know which one will be the eventual outcome. Reality might even be in yet another direction, that isn't even shown.

As a coldie, I'm aware that the milder options might win, but I am quite content that at this moment we cannot rule out a December 2010/1962/1995 event. There is a lot to be excited about and model watching will remain very interesting this upcoming month.

 

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

 

Although I must say, GEFS has moved away from the West-based -NAO a bit again. Perhaps the pendulum swings back.
It is actually very difficult to find ensemble members that really are terrible! Good sign IMO.

 

I can find 7 out of 20 by day 16. There are only a couple at day 13 so that tells a story too 

tbh, I’m not a fan of looking at individual ens members in week 2 - they don’t have the sensitivity for that 

[Cold Winter Night]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I can find 7 out of 20 by day 16. There are only a couple at day 13 so that tells a story too 

tbh, I’m not a fan of looking at individual ens members in week 2 - they don’t have the sensitivity for that 

Me neither, I generally don't post those, since an ensemble should be viewed as a whole, but I did so now to illustrate the other side of the wide envelope.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Paul
Removed quote and response to a post which had already been removed

[northwestsnow]

Lovely looking ICON-

 

[sheikhy]

Lovely lovely icon!!!please set the tone for the rest of the 12zs!!!need some bloomin positivity in here!!!

[Ali1977]

Wow that’s a huge improvement even at day 5

[Jackski4]

Definite upgrade on the icon as early as day 4/5. How are the uppers looking?