Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[That ECM]

Catching up and pleased to see these at T144.  None will be spot on for that time frame but not bad eh?

[SqueakheartLW]

Think GEM 00z P07 has had too much to drink

Never seen a modelled 2m temp for Scunthorpe go this low before in order to have a minimum temp on 18th December 2022 of -17.1C and a maximum of only -13.2C

ECM

Can already see an upgrade to the cold here on ECM 12z 2m temps as the white line is already lower down by 12th December compared with the 00z

GEM

Not much to choose between the 00z and 12z here. Both see a gradual return to average by the end of the run.

GFS

I'd certainly take that control run from the 12z. Very much at the bottom of the ensembles throughout the run.

[Frosty.]

Comparing like with like, .. …tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean, especially longer term, is colder than 24 hours ago!…it’s going to turn much colder from the north next week with widespread frosts and sunny spells, especially across the interior,  the shower distribution will change compared to the current easterly, when it turns more northerly, we will see a wishbone effect with showers draped around western,  northern and eastern coastal counties but any disturbances pushing south would mean bands of wintry precipitation across inland areas too… a taste of winter is coming.. no stopping it now!..how long it lasts and how severe it becomes?..is well above my pay grade !  

 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Frosty.

[Daniel*]

Been a while since we have seen such a prolonged spell of negative NAO/AO. The vortex can’t be happy this winter is clearly not evolving like the last, not much better ways you can start meteorological winter, possibly planting seeds for further wintry weather later on in December and even into January. 

AO 12z EPS

 

NAO 12z EPS

[Captain Shortwave]

It is interesting to note how similar the onset of this cold spell is to the one that began in the last third of November 2010 (Large high over Scandinavia retrogressing with a trough moving south west from the Arctic into Europe). 

In that spell, a bitter easterly followed, you wouldn’t bet against one happening again. It is an option that needs keeping an eye on.

I know that Sod’s Law has historically been against the majority of netweather users, however 2022 has a track record of being happy to torture average Joe (First record 40c maxima), it almost feels like a cold December was meant to be.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Catacol]

6 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Can I ask please . Am I looking in the right place here for the Ens / Mean etc? Seems people post these means quicker than I can ever get access . Is there a better way ? Thanks in advance .

Meteociel is indeed good. Tropical Tidbits is a favourite of mine… 

EPS Model – 500mb Height Anomaly for Northern Hemisphere | Tropical Tidbits

WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COM

---

EPS model forecast of 500mb Height Anomaly for Northern Hemisphere

 

[jmp223]

5 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Think GEM 00z P07 has had too much to drink

Never seen a modelled 2m temp for Scunthorpe go this low before in order to have a minimum temp on 18th December 2022 of -17.1C and a maximum of only -13.2C

ECM

Can already see an upgrade to the cold here on ECM 12z 2m temps as the white line is already lower down by 12th December compared with the 00z

GEM

Not much to choose between the 00z and 12z here. Both see a gradual return to average by the end of the run.

GFS

I'd certainly take that control run from the 12z. Very much at the bottom of the ensembles throughout the run.

Premature Frostification  

Can someone tell me what the dam values are looking to be based on these outputs? If I recall during the BFTE we had 510-512 dam thickness.

[emmett garland]

200 pages a week which equates to snow falling imminently.. my model output is heavy convective snow and really bitterly easterlies or NNEasterlies  from wednesday as all the trends show, so christmas heaven and honestly from my heart if this trend continues Im cancelling my xmas holiday to Spain (fly 22nd) as its my dream to be sat at home watching snow fall on Christmas eve. Its 99 percent of all wishes..

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, jmp223 said:

Premature Frostification  

Can someone tell me what the dam values are looking to be based on these outputs? If I recall during the BFTE we had 510-512 dam thickness.

Down to about 524 on the GFS op.

[Mark wheeler]

9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Meteociel is indeed good. Tropical Tidbits is a favourite of mine… 

EPS Model – 500mb Height Anomaly for Northern Hemisphere | Tropical Tidbits

WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COM

---

EPS model forecast of 500mb Height Anomaly for Northern Hemisphere

 

Thanks for this , also thanks for last nights reply and in depth explanation of what was the current situation, much appreciated.

[suxer]

On 26/11/2022 at 20:21, bluearmy said:

Need to manage expectations I think

Unless we get swiped by a meandering cold pool from the east, the action remains post day 10 and most likely day 12. The increasingly strong mean greeny ridge looks very promising indeed for coldies but it guarantees nothing re deep cold at this stage. 
 

The very good outlook for winter continues (assuming you’re a coldie) but for now, the chilly continental flow as the month turns over is about all that seems certain for now 

 

Yes i think most know that but enjoy the chase 

[Easton Luna Boys]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

And just to add its the REAL DEAL sorry mods couldn't resist.

Wiser heads know not to get over excited so far out. You need CMA @ 24... and it can STILL go wrong at that timescale. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Not much snow for the South from the ECM 12 run.

But hopefully a sign of things to come further down the road ?

[LightningLover]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not much snow for the South from the ECM 12 run.

But hopefully a sign of things to come further down the road ?

Bit off topic, but why does the snow cover colour scale jump from 500 to 10000cm?

[Johnp]

9 minutes ago, suxer said:

 

Yes i think most know that but enjoy the chase 

That post you just replied to is a week old.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Wiser heads know not to get over excited so far out. You need CMA @ 24... and it can STILL go wrong at that timescale. 

The much colder weather is literally nailed down..perhaps not with a heavy duty nail gun but a pretty hefty hammer. Even the met are now saying much colder by midweek!

It's what comes next that remains less certain..if these sypnotics continue then I would think multiple bites at the forbidden fruit..(sorry guys,was getting sick of saying cherry) 

Edited December 3, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Jackski4]

These might be a bit out of order, but here is the ECM PPN charts for Thursday and Friday, pretty dry for the south, north gets a pasting.

[CSC]

8 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not much snow for the South from the ECM 12 run.

But hopefully a sign of things to come further down the road ?

its after this the 9th precip will come for the whole country. When the warmer air comes across and meets the cold, we could be in for something special. 

Cold air is most likely not shifting any time soon, so the warm air won't make it very far across. It could make a set up of several wintry events.

Edited December 3, 2022 by CSC

[Mizzle]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

My heart sank that evening!!!never ever wana feel the way i did that day ever again!!!that was something you cannot describe or see coming!!!a bit like the 2013 wtf moment from ukmo!!that was quite something as well!!

What happened that evening?  

[sheikhy]

Just now, Mizzle said:

What happened that evening?  

A severe cold spell got snatched away literally 4 days before the event was about to begin!!!one of the worse feelings for us snow lovers on this forum ever!!!!!

[chionomaniac]

I have created a new thread here

this one will be locked shortly so get posting over there!

[P-M]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

A severe cold spell got snatched away literally 4 days before the event was about to begin!!!one of the worse feelings for us snow lovers on this forum ever!!!!!

But this year looks and feels different.  The synoptics are mouthwatering in places.  Another great set of runs,  cold already setting in,  what more can we ask for! We'd be literally the unluckiest place on earth for cold and snow if we don't bag something from this like.  

 

Edited December 3, 2022 by P-M

[chionomaniac]

10 minutes so that those posting will not lose their posts…..

[Robbie Garrett]

I think the models are struggling post 120hrs+   - I suspect the low as people are already mentioning won't be as strong nor will it blast towards us.  I suspect it will get stuck like a similar scenario that happened on 20-24th Nov 2010 (When the MetOffice started talking of a breakdown).   

 

6 hours ago, Howie said:

Am I the only one that thinks this new low to the south west is being way over done? How could it possibly become that intense, basically a hurricane in the northern Atlantic in December? Just seems wrong to me

5 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Passion. It takes a bit of self control to step back and look at the bigger picture. Just stick to day5-6 and past that just for fun. 

In 2010, the models constantly showed the end of the cold spell, but this was put back time and time again. With this being a strong split into the lower Strat, rather than a transient Greenland High, I suspect the same will happen again. 

4 hours ago, Notty said:

and NOAA are not expecting any tropical storms there in the next five days and a storm like that would already be brewing and monitored by the NHC (in my opinion)

 

Posted on

1 hour ago, clark3r said:

I am starting to believe that I will get my snow cover for the first time since 2010. Excited by charts, it is def coming home England

It would be absolutely hilarious if England did win, that the victory parade was cancelled by Sadiq Khan due to heavy snow fall. (Another Crisis).

Edited December 3, 2022 by Robbie Garrett