Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[sheikhy]

Absolutely stunning ecm up to 192 hours!!bloody got an easterly now!!that rogue run from yesterday has ran for the hills!!!

[lawrenk]

16 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Rain and sleet in south with very cold temperatures I think they have that wrong 

I agree, you’d have to think “cold or very cold” in mid December would translate to something better?

[Allseasons-Si]

We are in an easterly at 192,...colder upper's coming in from the east.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[karlos1983]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Get in there , great run and poss epic finish. Cold cold and more cold 

looks good to me, that low to the south west is starting to elongate as it goes under the force of the block. Could be a cracking end to the run 

[Kasim Awan]

The easterly gradient on the ECM @ 216h is gonna be brutal

[Ali1977]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Absolutely stunning ecm up to 192 hours!!bloody got an easterly now!!that rogue run from yesterday has ran for the hills!!!

Look at that cold waiting to our east - beast territory 

[Malarky]

Getting quite real now! 

[Snowman.]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Absolutely stunning ecm up to 192 hours!!bloody got an easterly now!!that rogue run from yesterday has ran for the hills!!!

I called it! 
 

All jokes aside encouraging to see the models get a better grip with the NE extent. Happy with the ECM this evening hopefully it improves tomorrow. 

[Ice Day]

-20 uppers just across the North Sea!

I know there's going to be some different views on this run, but I think it's superb!

[Weathizard]

-16 nearby, massive low interacting with very cold air… This is the kind of chart which could see historic snowfall follow in the days after this.

Remember though…. It’s day 8+ 

 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Weathizard

[cyclonic happiness]

12 minutes ago, johnny1972 said:

Certainly isn't, it's raining and 4 degrees

There is sleet/wet snow up on the pennines

[nick sussex]

We need that low moving east across the USA to continue running east and block off the Greenland high at day 9.

This will stop height seepage and could deliver enough forcing downstream .

 

[Nick123]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Get in there , great run and poss epic finish. Cold cold and more cold 

Get in there , great run and poss epic finish. Cold cold and more cold 

Will those lows slide tho?!

[Bricriu]

Just now, nick sussex said:

We need that low moving east across the USA to continue running east and block off the Greenland high at day 9.

This will stop height seepage and could deliver enough forcing downstream .

 

How confident would you be about that happening? You and bluearmy don't seem to be convinced by this ECM run is the impression i'm getting

[Met4Cast]

Just for fun the ECM produces a technical polar low to the NE of Scotland

[Allseasons-Si]

I know which one i'd prefer

12z 192 vs 12z 216 yesterday

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

We need that low moving east across the USA to continue running east and block off the Greenland high at day 9.

This will stop height seepage and could deliver enough forcing downstream .

 

How did I know you’d find something downstream Nick

Don’t worry about the stream, it will be frozen soon anyway

[Day 10]

The cold pendulum swinging back towards us once again.

[Captain Shortwave]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

-20 uppers just across the North Sea!

I know there's going to be some different views on this run, but I think it's superb!

It’s too cold in this instance as it generates a low between Scotland and Norway. That said it is still very cold at the surface.

 

Also there is the “Hurricane” meandering harmlessly into southern Europe.

[Derecho]

Very intriguing EC. That Azores low is still there but I noticed some more ensembles were advecting cold into Scandi, we could end up in a battleground scenario. A long way off but this could be very interesting indeed.

[Snowman.]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Just for fun the ECM produces a technical polar low to the NE of Scotland

Bit of a gate keeper in terms of getting the deep cold across the sea down but still a nice run. Wonder what the maxes are. 

[Rayth]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

The cold pendulum swinging back towards us once again.

Momentum you mean  

[Ice Day]

216 is one frame away from something special.... if it behaves itself!

 

[karlos1983]

I'll take that at this juncture.. good signs that the low isnt going to barrel into the uk bringing Southerly winds.. we are already getting a continental flow at 216  

 

[Nick123]

Long time lurker here, I have been seduced back in to this forum. Best potential for a prolonged cold and snowy spell since 2010 imo. Very hard not to get carried away and then leading to potential heartbreak, but atleast if that happens were amongst friends!