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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

With winter now almost upon us, the model thread is getting ever busier, and as such it's important to keep it on topic. So, please keep your posts to discussing the model output, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter thread.  Or, head to the moans and ramps thread.

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Posted by Paul,

Please don't discuss this here (there's comments on the guide if you want to ask a question etc), but obviously in a busy thread like this, it's hard to cater for everyone's needs and wants in terms of the content they want to see. But, for those who want a more curated experience, following members and then keeping up to date with their posts through the activity feed may be a great way to get to the content you want, without having to wade through the content you don't. So, here's a guide

Curate the content you see on the model thread

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
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Posted
40 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

An amazing setup seems to be piecing together slowly, let's hope this becomes a propee trend over the next few days though.

Indeed, EE... The current output reminds me of some of those winters of old: cold weather would move in but was almost always only going to be transient, and then often turned into something more enduring -- repeated blasts from either east or north, but almost always with milder interludes.

Back then it was said that the onset of a spell of cold weather was always easier to predict than its eventual demise. I wonder if the vast improvement in modelling over the intervening years has done anything to change that?🤔

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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted
Just now, karlos1983 said:

-6 to -8  850's in a fairly unstable airmass? yes please

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

Could get some seriously cold minima with snow cover, cloud breaks and slack low pressure too!  Could easily get down to -10'c in the Midlands

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted (edited)

I see a -9 at 120...🥶

ECU0-120.thumb.gif.1440e2541cc93a0d491c9ffd0aca5874.gif

and wellcome back @karlos1983 🙂

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

If we can have that low over Scotland drift south it will open the floodgates to even colder uppers. 

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johnny1972 Explorer

johnny1972

Posted
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
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Posted
52 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Thanks. Currently snowing outside as I type this.

Certainly isn't, it's raining and 4 degrees

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

OMG....

i accidently clicked on the N American one,...it freaked the life out of me ha ha🥶

ECN0-0.thumb.gif.fdfe2eec292f7c310096a2e74fe08923.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

Can’t seem to find precipitation charts on ecm for Thursday. Guessing they aren’t out yet?

144 , not much in this run - yet 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Vegetation, Plant, Person

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Can we get enough forcing to get the pattern further se and get something from the ne after day 7 !

 

This what i was saying earlier,...the control did in style 🙂

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

It is almost always less stressful EE. Use it down to say 120h then all models will begin to home into almost identical, usually (!) detail from there down to T+0. Of course they can end up wrong, for specific details even then. Makes life interesting.

Less stressful for us, but for the general public who require early warning, a lack of informing in order to protects ones personal interests "im worried about being wrong and looking bad etc" is just a delay on them receiving valid information.

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

144 , not much in this run - yet 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Vegetation, Plant, Person

Gives me 7cm from a selfish pov lol, I’d take that to start with 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
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Posted (edited)

The ECM is pretty close to opening up an easterly. Hopefully the Azores low isn’t too much of a hinderance here.

image.thumb.gif.954fccf121ae66f5d99190664c4e5ca9.gif
 

The U.K. low is still bolted to the Asian section of the tropospheric vortex too.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

192 could be a peach! 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Well one if you is lying 🤣🤣

No one is lying.

I'm almost 450ft higher up than him and it's raining here too now at 2.7c dp 1.3c, was a heavy burst that brought the snow line down. Crept up 1c.

I'm not a conspiracy lol

Edited by Kasim Awan
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Or it could be a plum !
 

Looks a bit pear to me now but let’s see

Edited by Snowman.
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Get in there , great run and poss epic finish. Cold cold and more cold 

Could contain: Art, Accessories, Graphics, Pattern, Plot, Chart

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Art

Get in there , great run and poss epic finish. Cold cold and more cold 

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johnny1972 Explorer

johnny1972

Posted
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
Posted
5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

No one is lying.

I'm almost 450ft higher up than him and it's raining here too now at 3.8c dp 2.3c, was a heavy burst that brought the snow line down. Crept up 1c.

I'm not a conspiracy lol

I noticed you were higher in a later post. Apologies

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