Northwest Weather Discussion

[Jackski4]

Just now, Thunder Snow said:

I'm in the area expect it to correct South

This is a good thing though, if it does right? Corrections South must mean areas further south stay colder and more potential for snow ?

[Thunder Snow]

Just now, Jackski4 said:

This is a good thing though, if it does right? Corrections South must mean areas further south stay colder and more potential for snow ?

Along as I remain in the firing line

[Jackski4]

Just now, Thunder Snow said:

Along as I remain in the firing line

HAHA you and me both my friend.

[Spah1]

Higher parts will get orange warning before Thursday. 

[Dark Horse]

Well well well as others have said a warning in force now. It looks to me to be potentially a very disruptive week to 10 days. I don't think Thurs into Friday will be the only and last chance either as the cold and warm air masses battle it out not far from us after that.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Dark Horse

[Iceaxecrampon]

5 hours ago, pip22 said:

Not expecting much this upcoming cold period. Its probably gonna stay dry all the way through here, expecting to be another dry week in my neck of the woods.

Ready for summer TBH. 
 

Speaking of Woods. We’re fast running out of logs. 🫤

[Rush2019]

Been wet most of the day so far, mizzerable drizzle and moderate showers.  Wind started picking up 12noon and there's the start of the decline in temperature now, as noted on Airport TAF from 1pm.  Let it all begin.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Rush2112
Missed info

[Gary2701]

Very interesting that the met office has now upgraded most of the UK to yellow warning.  At what point will they move to orange in some parts!!!

 

[Joe Snow]

1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

Higher parts will get orange warning before Thursday. 

Potential of a Red Heavy Snow warning on the MO warning matrix too although think that will be reserved for higher ground further north and into Scotland where the snow could be piling up by the end of the week as things stand currently. Lots to keep an eye on. 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Joe Snow

[cheshire snow]

2 hours ago, Jackski4 said:

This is a good thing though, if it does right? Corrections South must mean areas further south stay colder and more potential for snow ?

It is a very encouraging warning in my opinion the fact the warning extends into northern Scotland means there is some riggle room even if it does correct south,if the warning had stopped at say Manchester I would be very concerned.Meto obviously seeing something disruptive to issue a warning 48hrs out.One thing for sure stay out of the Mad thread because every single model run it will be a case of oh the low has moved 10 miles south and so on.

[Jackski4]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

It is a very encouraging warning in my opinion the fact the warning extends into northern Scotland means there is some riggle room even if it does correct south,if the warning had stopped at say Manchester I would be very concerned.Meto obviously seeing something disruptive to issue a warning 48hrs out.One thing for sure stay out of the Mad thread because every single model run it will be a case of oh the low has moved 10 miles south and so on.

I was thinking the exact same regarding how far north the warning extends, even if it does correct south a bit that could be even better for marginality .

[Thunder Snow]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

It is a very encouraging warning in my opinion the fact the warning extends into northern Scotland means there is some riggle room even if it does correct south,if the warning had stopped at say Manchester I would be very concerned.Meto obviously seeing something disruptive to issue a warning 48hrs out.One thing for sure stay out of the Mad thread because every single model run it will be a case of oh the low has moved 10 miles south and so on.

Staying well out the mad thread, they all get away with snow in the south, south east but if I went there and asked what are the chances for carlisle I'd be banned

[Geordiesnow]

It does seem the further north you are, the more chance there is for potentially a significant snow event but its one of those situations where the milder air comes in too quickly and it's a mostly rain event. I think the likelihood of it being a snow to rain event looks quite high too me. Small chance this region is the point where the low slides and the cold air wins out.

 

[Mark.C]

5 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Staying well out the mad thread, they all get away with snow in the south, south east but if I went there and asked what are the chances for carlisle I'd be banned

One of the friendliest weather forums in the world

[Gary2701]

Went out this morning at 9qm car was reading 7c.  Just been out at 3.30pm and we are falling . Standing at 5.5c  rain passed with sunshine so cold front past here heading south

[Thunder Snow]

I can confirm I currently have light snow flurries

[Astral Goat Juice]

24 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Staying well out the mad thread, they all get away with snow in the south, south east but if I went there and asked what are the chances for carlisle I'd be banned

"Will it snow in Carlisle"

That takes me back 

[Thunder Snow]

20 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

"Will it snow in Carlisle"

That takes me back 

Ha ha ha back when I was young  

[Spah1]

Snow to rain Thursday/Friday. Expect the snow line to nudge north. Might get a slushy deposit but milder air is behind the front. 

[Joe Snow]

A period of sleet/ snow on Thurs still on the 12z but transient the further south you are as a more rounded low drags up milder air quicker. Just one of many variations. Pennines probably will be hit hard. 

[Thunder Snow]

Could do with the correcting south kn the 18z just alittle bit 

[Jackski4]

These things usually correct South based on past experience so I’m not worried yet.

[Geordiesnow]

Or correct it selves further northwards, the initial cold plunge is not getting as far south and west on each GFS run I notice so maybe that's another factor why the cold is not hanging on no matter how hard it tries.

Still a bit of time for the details to change though of course.

 

[Dark Horse]

Might not happen as we know how these models can often exaggerate amounts but have to say I've not seen this amount of *projected* snowfall on the map since at least the 2018 BFTE. Glossop crew you could be looking at over a foot of snow come Friday. Other areas such as Tameside, Oldham, Rochdale, Bolton, Bury and east Lancs also getting an absolute tonking.

[Day 10]

The latest from the GFS & UKMO...

Thursday

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UKMO