Northwest Weather Discussion

[The Northern Ramper]

Oh I’ll have some of that update, I’m expecting a snow day Friday. Even if it’s not bad here I really can’t see the m62 being open at Saddleworth to Ainley top with that forecast.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Ramp

[Dark Horse]

4 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Oh I’ll have some of that update, I’m expecting a snow day Friday. Even if it’s not bad here I really can’t see the m62 being open at Saddleworth to Ainley top with that forecast.

Be a miracle if it was. It'll be knee deep up there.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Dark Horse

[Chris.R]

Met warning text:

"An area of low pressure will move across the UK on Thursday and Friday with snow developing across Wales and central England early on Thursday morning. This is expected to move slowly north during the day, becoming slow-moving across north Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland and southern Scotland during the afternoon and evening before slowly clearing southeast on Friday. Snow will likely turn to sleet or rain at times at lower elevations, especially in the south of the warning area, as well as near eastern coasts. At low levels including major cities such as Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle accumulations are expected to be limited with a small chance of 2-5 cm falling. However, significant snow accumulations are possible over hills of northern England (including populated areas of South and West Yorkshire), Northern Ireland and southern Scotland. Here, 10-15 cm is expected quite widely above 100 metres, with a chance that 25-40 cm could fall in some places . Additionally, there is potential for strong winds, which may lead to blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow. Ice is likely to develop widely on Friday night as this system clears away."

honestly I'd take that. I've seen worse. of course accumulations in cities are likely to be limited to an extent due to the heat island effect. Never seen them reference that specifically before though.

Evaporative cooling is also being underestimated.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Chris.R

[WillinGlossop]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Met warning text:

"An area of low pressure will move across the UK on Thursday and Friday with snow developing across Wales and central England early on Thursday morning. This is expected to move slowly north during the day, becoming slow-moving across north Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland and southern Scotland during the afternoon and evening before slowly clearing southeast on Friday. Snow will likely turn to sleet or rain at times at lower elevations, especially in the south of the warning area, as well as near eastern coasts. At low levels including major cities such as Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle accumulations are expected to be limited with a small chance of 2-5 cm falling. However, significant snow accumulations are possible over hills of northern England (including populated areas of South and West Yorkshire), Northern Ireland and southern Scotland. Here, 10-15 cm is expected quite widely above 100 metres, with a chance that 25-40 cm could fall in some places . Additionally, there is potential for strong winds, which may lead to blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow. Ice is likely to develop widely on Friday night as this system clears away."

honestly I take that. I've seen worse. of course accumulations in cities are likely to be limited to an extent due to the heat island effect. Never seen them reference that specifically before though.

Evaporative cooling is also being underestimated.

I think there will be updates during the day/this evening… such a messy fluid set up… somewhere will get a lot of snow… 

[chiffer]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Met warning text:

"An area of low pressure will move across the UK on Thursday and Friday with snow developing across Wales and central England early on Thursday morning. This is expected to move slowly north during the day, becoming slow-moving across north Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland and southern Scotland during the afternoon and evening before slowly clearing southeast on Friday. Snow will likely turn to sleet or rain at times at lower elevations, especially in the south of the warning area, as well as near eastern coasts. At low levels including major cities such as Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle accumulations are expected to be limited with a small chance of 2-5 cm falling. However, significant snow accumulations are possible over hills of northern England (including populated areas of South and West Yorkshire), Northern Ireland and southern Scotland. Here, 10-15 cm is expected quite widely above 100 metres, with a chance that 25-40 cm could fall in some places . Additionally, there is potential for strong winds, which may lead to blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow. Ice is likely to develop widely on Friday night as this system clears away."

honestly I take that. I've seen worse. of course accumulations in cities are likely to be limited to an extent due to the heat island effect. Never seen them reference that specifically before though.

Evaporative cooling is also being underestimated.

I’ve not seen anything over 1cm since 2010 so would be happy with 2-5cm

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Met warning text:

"An area of low pressure will move across the UK on Thursday and Friday with snow developing across Wales and central England early on Thursday morning. This is expected to move slowly north during the day, becoming slow-moving across north Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland and southern Scotland during the afternoon and evening before slowly clearing southeast on Friday. Snow will likely turn to sleet or rain at times at lower elevations, especially in the south of the warning area, as well as near eastern coasts. At low levels including major cities such as Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle accumulations are expected to be limited with a small chance of 2-5 cm falling. However, significant snow accumulations are possible over hills of northern England (including populated areas of South and West Yorkshire), Northern Ireland and southern Scotland. Here, 10-15 cm is expected quite widely above 100 metres, with a chance that 25-40 cm could fall in some places . Additionally, there is potential for strong winds, which may lead to blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow. Ice is likely to develop widely on Friday night as this system clears away."

honestly I'd take that. I've seen worse. of course accumulations in cities are likely to be limited to an extent due to the heat island effect. Never seen them reference that specifically before though.

Evaporative cooling is also being underestimated.

It's a proper kick in the teeth though.

[Backtrack]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

It's a proper kick in the teeth though.

Yeah it is, it was only yesterday that it said widely 10cm was expected. 
 

That’s a downgrade, big time. 

[Taylorthesnowman]

I think it's alright personally.wasnt expecting anything.id take two to five cms 

[Day 10]

From a potentially amazing once in a lifetime event to meh.

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

I think there will be updates during the day/this evening… such a messy fluid set up… somewhere will get a lot of snow… 

Yep

[Day 10]

7 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

I think there will be updates during the day/this evening… such a messy fluid set up… somewhere will get a lot of snow… 

The hills

3 minutes ago, Taylorthesnowman said:

I think it's alright personally.wasnt expecting anything.id take two to five cms 

A small chance

[Taylorthesnowman]

I live two and a half miles from Liverpool city centre.been plenty of times I've had way more snow that the centre itself .it's notmal

[Scuba steve]

Anyone watching the blob moving west towards York ?

[Day 10]

Really wasn't expecting that update to be so poor, just sounds like the usual places will get hammered, nothing special like it has been looking. Love them to be wrong but not confident at all now.

[Chris.R]

The way I read it 2-5 cm would be in city centres thanks to heat island more than that everywhere else. And I don't think that's the problem anyway. The problem is how far north is the 0°C isotherm going to get and that's still yet to be resolved so anything could happen. If you're north of it you'll be totally fine. 
The fact that it's stalling somewhere close to us is the big deal and that's still going to happen.

[Geordiesnow]

10 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Met warning text:

"An area of low pressure will move across the UK on Thursday and Friday with snow developing across Wales and central England early on Thursday morning. This is expected to move slowly north during the day, becoming slow-moving across north Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland and southern Scotland during the afternoon and evening before slowly clearing southeast on Friday. Snow will likely turn to sleet or rain at times at lower elevations, especially in the south of the warning area, as well as near eastern coasts. At low levels including major cities such as Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle accumulations are expected to be limited with a small chance of 2-5 cm falling. However, significant snow accumulations are possible over hills of northern England (including populated areas of South and West Yorkshire), Northern Ireland and southern Scotland. Here, 10-15 cm is expected quite widely above 100 metres, with a chance that 25-40 cm could fall in some places . Additionally, there is potential for strong winds, which may lead to blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow. Ice is likely to develop widely on Friday night as this system clears away."

honestly I'd take that. I've seen worse. of course accumulations in cities are likely to be limited to an extent due to the heat island effect. Never seen them reference that specifically before though.

Evaporative cooling is also being underestimated.

Looks to me evaporative cooling will be limited because there is going to be a gusty easterly wind blowing. I also think the warning is also factoring the likely hood of a rain shadow affect occurring, its why I prefer a more shallower system but these do usually slide southwards.

Lets see what today offers up though, will be a bonus as just a few days ago, today should of been a sunny and dry day. 

 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Really wasn't expecting that update to be so poor, just sounds like the usual places will get hammered, nothing special like it has been looking. Love them to be wrong but not confident at all now.

Probably the best place to be… rather tha. Being disappointed with nothing on the day 

[Chris.R]

4 minutes ago, Taylorthesnowman said:

I live two and a half miles from Liverpool city centre.been plenty of times I've had way more snow that the centre itself .it's notmal

Same here. City centre will always get less because of the heat island. Suburbs will be fine.

[johnwirral]

Snow showing up this evening on the met office for here, was not expecting it until thurs-fri.

[Chris.R]

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Really wasn't expecting that update to be so poor, just sounds like the usual places will get hammered, nothing special like it has been looking. Love them to be wrong but not confident at all now.

Give it until this evening.

[Alexis]

We always get more snow in Prestwich and Whitefield because we're at 100m. A couple of miles away and you're in Salford and the centre at 28m.

It's not new information.

 

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Looks to me evaporative cooling will be limited because there is going to be a gusty easterly wind blowing. I also think the warning is also factoring the likely hood of a rain shadow affect occurring, its why I prefer a more shallower system but these do usually slide southwards.

Lets see what today offers up though, will be a bonus as just a few days ago, today should of been a sunny and dry day. 

 

Will be limited but will still play a part.

[Backtrack]

If it’s any consolation, this system is about 200 miles further north than what the Met Office had in their forecast yesterday. 
 

They’re not always right, I guess. 

[Had Worse]

Warnings updated at 10.10 this morning. No Ambers yet and they think medium impact.

[russwirral]

Sounds like for the most of us, what starts off as snow will likely turn to rain or sleet according to the models.

 

Sometimes though, once snow sets in, it can defy forecasts.

 

We just need a bit of luck for a change