Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[Scandinavian High.]

Any chance Scandinavia high anytime soon met office not backing away from cold yet.

[Eagle Eye]

The track of the -VE zonal wind anomalies has shifted East over the last few runs (at around 45W to 30-15W)instead of becoming a shored up Greenland zonal setup early link, its just going to become another Eurasian signal (possible Euro ridge repeating pattern and could draw up more WAA into the Eurasian area/Scandinavian ridge or more hopefully block). I've noted the zonal packet transitioning over the North American area (this being just above the Tropics) from 120W to 30W that was probably not handled well and admittedly it probably wasn't handled that well before now but I just assumed that the way the GFS was forecasting it was how they evolve normally but I guess not. This may act to fire up the ridge/trough/ride pattern as the Atlantic jet tends to try and extend. I've also noted around 120E as the initial East Asian jet. Right now it's extending in reaction to the remnants of the 2nd wave train moving on which did scatter some fairly good energy but it was slightly too over progressive hence we didn't see a proper Greenland block being the most likely outlook right now. It's extension doesn't look too sustained and may just act to amplify the American pattern come Christmas time but beyond that how it scatters energy will be hard to tell. Like I said, it doesn't look to sustained and towards Christmas time we should see it slowly retract to around normal so outputs should become a little less complicated once we go into the New Year as we rely a little more on local dynamics. Still a lot to be interested about and note that the Greenland (area, the actual zonal is well below Greenlan) +VE zonal wanes towards the end of the run so possibly we may see another chance. The pattern doesn't look like going fully Nino-esque nor does it look to go Nina-esque plus the MJO is progressing fairly well and perhaps with more amplification of the MJO we could once again see a sustained signal for a +VE NAO. Its asking for a lot of little changes but if we get a few things in our fortune, we could be back in the game for long-term significant cold potential.

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

After this period we then look for signs of re amplification and a pattern similar to the one we just had, but without them stubborn euro heights this time!

I think the Euro heights may be the thorn in the side for this winter and (think) it was shown by many long range models in the lead up to winter?

[goosey007]

5 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Any chance Scandinavia high anytime soon met office not backing away from cold yet.

It’s the uks safest route to cold and snow a la feb 96 all this Greenland stuff just too risky

[goosey007]

35 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The latest ECM 06 hrs control run to day 6 delays the exit of the ne Canada troughing.

Additionally the ECM 06 hrs op to T90 hrs has edged that trough a smidge further west .

As you can see I’m doing my best here to scratch around for some crumbs of hope ! 

Think Cyprus may have a better chance ….tongue and cheek of course. I am still hoping for an Xmas period miracle 

Edited December 21, 2022 by goosey007

[Kasim Awan]

ICON has a white boxing day for many areas ❄

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Think Cyprus may have a better chance 

Very funny ! 

The cold can stay away from here . Cold set ups in the UK often deliver lovely warm weather down here so that way UK coldies win and I win down here .

As you know I’m an ardent coldie  when in the UK but here in Cyprus warm, sunny and dry is my hope.

[Lampostwatcher]

Icon looks interesting very interesting 

[Skullzrulerz]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ICON has a white boxing day for many areas ❄

At what cost?

[Eagle Eye]

The actual back edge of the Atmospheric River (AR) loops back slightly according to the GFS and dumps a lot of precipitation (that could fall as snowfall as this part of an AR is typically colder) for our Scottish members and maybe our Northern members. A few hundred miles South and this could have been a significant snow event for a lot of the UK. It also draws up a lot of precipitation from more of a southern tail of the Atmospheric River, whether this is still the colder tail or just the main part of the Atmospheric River we'll have to work out closer to time but if it is still part of the tail, it is possible that these boxing day snow events on the models are accurate it just depends on a few miles and the exacts of the AR. Could we be saved (ish) by an Atmospheric River?

Edited December 21, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[goosey007]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Very funny ! 

The cold can stay away from here . Cold set ups in the UK often deliver lovely warm weather down here so that way UK coldies win and I win down here .

As you know I’m an ardent coldie  when in the UK but here in Cyprus warm, sunny and dry is my hope.

Yes it’s commendable you are watching developments so closely for uk cold when your not in the country ! I cursed my luck when to Florida on 06th feb 2009 ! I was pig sick

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

At what cost?

Half a crown 

[supernova]

6 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Icon looks interesting very interesting 

How? Looks like an occasional chilly incursion with not enough amplification to generate any sort of sustained cold to me - am I missing something?

Edited December 21, 2022 by supernova

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, supernova said:

How? Looks like the occasional chilly incursion and not particularly cold to me - am I missing something?

Given the Met Office day 6-15 forecast, I think we may all be missing something...

[Tim Bland]

12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ICON has a white boxing day for many areas ❄

Not much for most?!

[Don]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Not much for most?!

Perhaps he's referring to Scotland?!

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Given the Met Office day 6-15 forecast, I think we may all be missing something...

Hopefully!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not much for most?!

I don't trust accumulation charts at that range although I confess I'm unaware of Irish Sea SSTS - the uppers are -5/6 so altitude will be required ..

At a rough guess 200m+

[Nick F]

ICON on all 3 runs out so far today has no interest in that low that forms NW of Iberia and heads to southern Britain on Boxing Day showing on GFS and EC. So not sure it's worth looking too much in detail from Xmas Day. Though we'll see if 12z GFS maintains that low from the SW for Boxing Day soon ...

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Perhaps he's referring to Scotland?!

Hopefully!

Only Scottish highlands though, so not even populous areas in Scotland?

[Don]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Only Scottish highlands though, so not even populous areas in Scotland?

That's why I want to move to the Highlands, you often win when 90% of the UK doesn't!

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Only Scottish highlands though, so not even populous areas in Scotland?

Seems not many understand that icon struggles with precip.

Meteociel icon algorithm is not able to process snowfall thats why my previous (accurate) post received so much backlash.

[supernova]

9 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Given the Met Office day 6-15 forecast, I think we may all be missing something...

I'd love you to be right!

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I don't trust accumulation charts at that range although I confess I'm unaware of Irish Sea SSTS - the uppers are -5/6 so altitude will be required ..

At a rough guess 200m+

Below average going by Crosby Liverpool

 

[Stav]

18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Very funny ! 

The cold can stay away from here . Cold set ups in the UK often deliver lovely warm weather down here so that way UK coldies win and I win down here .

As you know I’m an ardent coldie  when in the UK but here in Cyprus warm, sunny and dry is my hope.

Off topic but I am sure you have been skiing at Troodos. I remember sliding all over untreated roads there in sub-zero temperatures one April. I have Greek Cypriot roots.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Below average going by Crosby Liverpool

 

Thankyou.

That helps a little.