Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[MATTWOLVES 3]

You keep on raving about scandy Heights and lack of em...voila....boom mm...theres ya ruddy scandy Heights!  

Boxing day?? Hmm what's it mean? Personally after having the inlaws round and the utter jive they speak about everything in general...I would say this day means to end up getting in a sparring match with em...winner takes all...you know what I mean  

[Singularity]

So the very important MJO action has corrected a bit weaker during the weekend, reducing the strength of push toward a Scandinavian high - hence we’re seeing a lot of Euro highs in the modelling as the amplifying ridge becomes trapped over central parts of the continent.

Still enough spread across stronger MJO outcomes that we could yet see a Scandi high emerge, but probably of the ‘saggy’ variety that requires a narrow range of orientations in order for cold continental air to reach the UK much - or at all.

Failing that we have the SSW possibility but honestly, that has to be mainly wave-2 driven to capture my interest. When wave-1 dominates as modelling currently suggests, the resulting displacement type SSW tends to put notably cold weather across N America while we get at most a 10 day cold spell but are just as prone to abnormally mild weather depending on the finer details of the displacement.

Wave-2 type SSWs are more common during a La Niña so you never know… but at the moment and for the foreseeable future the atmospheric state is being pushed so far from La Niña-like that I can’t see typical La Niña tendencies being a useful guide for most or all of Jan 2023.

[alexisj9]

15 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

And it hasn't for a lot more.

The cold was there for all, just not the snow. It delivered cold for at least a week and a half. The luck off ppn being present, or sea temps keeping coastal stuff as rain or sleet was just that, bad luck. May be next cold spell you might get the luck, and others might not.

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Thank you.

Bear in mind a lot of the upward wave flux increasing allows stronger wave reflection is quite theoretical based off some evidence but simply there's not enough SSW's for full evidence. A lot of my posts are fairly theoretical as I've always found theoretical things more interesting than facts as there's less of a limit as to your brain remembering statistics as my brain finds it difficult to remember anything like numbers and facts but give me something where you have to link things together and I will be interested . Probably why I'm not great at interpreting models and am not great at the 'facts' I have to remember at school and much prefer writing persuasive texts, as my brain doesn't have a factfile section seemingly . Which is why I may not be able to take Physics at A-Level as my GCSE grade might not be enough (GCSE physics doesn't delve that much into theoretical Physics) and A-Level Physics is needed for most but not all Meteorology Uni courses.

This is not meant to be in any way disrespectful, EE... But, would devoting a tad more of your time/energy into your official studies not be a good idea, at this juncture? If you want it, EE, you have the ability in Spades! So, bide your time; take your degree, your inevitable PhD -- patience, Grasshopper?

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

This is not meant to be in any way disrespectful, EE... But, would devoting a tad more of your time/energy into your official studies not be a good idea, at this juncture? If you want it, EE, you have the ability in Spades! So, bide your time; take your degree, your inevitable PhD -- patience, Grasshopper?

To be fair its not really as simple as that, stopping talking about the weather and I will just move onto something else because my brain simply just doesn't want to learn facts,instead it craves something more theoretical for whatever reason. In Physics I learnt the basics of string theory before I understood the basics of magnets . I'm not that far away from a 7 or an A anyway (yes,I need an A to do A-Level because it's apparently that hard when I've already learnt most of it by myself when I got bored in Year and I'd rather just about get into A-Levels and be well ahead of anyone else beyond then, than be right on time in my GCSE's but forgot a lot of the stuff beyond that. Simply put I'm 15 and will act like a bored teenager and blame others .

[mulzy]

Slowly slowly, we are getting a better hemispheric pattern.  It's painful and there are lots of forks on the road ahead but there is at least some promise (I refuse to use the word potential as in my opinion that should be a week's ban on here!) 

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by mulzy

[shawty1984]

41 minutes ago, MJB said:

Who said it does ?

I am pointing out pattern matching and saying Decembers do this and Januarys do that is pointless 

Reading it, it seems you are saying the opposite

[shawty1984]

32 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

The cold was there for all, just not the snow. It delivered cold for at least a week and a half. The luck off ppn being present, or sea temps keeping coastal stuff as rain or sleet was just that, bad luck. May be next cold spell you might get the luck, and others might not.

But the vast majority in winter on here want snow do they not? I live in the North East of England and didn't see any at all. Also it wasn't just about me, but a lot of people who didn't see anything. 

[Ventnor Viking]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Sometimes …… at the moment I’d think of this analogy - Scott is thinking about putting his team together ……. It’s a very long way to the South Pole and he’s going to lose at the end anyway

I like that analogy! Its good to prepare to fall, softens the blow a little. I'll still secretly get excited behind closed doors for no reason and prepare family for a white out that will never happen. I'm a sucker for false hope, keeps the world spinning

[cyclonic happiness]

It's looking very, very stormy next week according to the GFS, something which will have to be watched!

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by cyclonic happiness

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

To be fair its not really as simple as that, stopping talking about the weather and I will just move onto something else because my brain simply just doesn't want to learn facts,instead it craves something more theoretical for whatever reason. In Physics I learnt the basics of string theory before I understood the basics of magnets . I'm not that far away from a 7 or an A anyway (yes,I need an A to do A-Level because it's apparently that hard when I've already learnt most of it by myself when I got bored in Year and I'd rather just about get into A-Levels and be well ahead of anyone else beyond then, than be right on time in my GCSE's but forgot a lot of the stuff beyond that. Simply put I'm 15 and will act like a bored teenager and blame others .

Your efforts are admirable Eagle Eye, thank you for that, and you might find the attached of interest as it combines the facts and theoretical

 

Mohanakumar 2.docx

Edited December 26, 2022 by knocker

[Summer8906]

12 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Will we get another cold spell before March

Our next proper cold spell will be just when we don't need it, and just after it becomes more or less impossible to snow in the south. How about May?

Edited December 26, 2022 by Summer8906

[Mike Poole]

Well, the time has come for the MJO to stand up and be counted.  Here’s ECM take (GFS similar):

At the moment as of now we are in phase 5 with decent amplitude, but the model hits the COD by 27th.  If this proves by actual data not to be correct, then we can expect some more amplified solutions appearing in the model output, so I will be keeping my eye on this chart for the next few days.  

Meanwhile, the extended T264+ clusters shows promise right at the end with the demise, one way or another, of the southern euro heights.

Cluster 2 has most promise, but all continue to show evidence of blocking of some sort.

 

[MJB]

1 hour ago, shawty1984 said:

Reading it, it seems you are saying the opposite

Not really 

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well, the time has come for the MJO to stand up and be counted.  Here’s ECM take (GFS similar):

At the moment as of now we are in phase 5 with decent amplitude, but the model hits the COD by 27th.  If this proves by actual data not to be correct, then we can expect some more amplified solutions appearing in the model output, so I will be keeping my eye on this chart for the next few days.  

Meanwhile, the extended T264+ clusters shows promise right at the end with the demise, one way or another, of the southern euro heights.

Cluster 2 has most promise, but all continue to show evidence of blocking of some sort.

 

They all look OK to me Mike.

Fingers crossed..

Edit actually 2 and 4 preferred for me..

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by northwestsnow

[MJB]

1 hour ago, shawty1984 said:

But the vast majority in winter on here want snow do they not? I live in the North East of England and didn't see any at all. Also it wasn't just about me, but a lot of people who didn't see anything. 

I wouldn't disagree with that , what use is cold without the snow . We were lucky to have snow on the Sunday and then the Monday , no great shakes but enough to make everywhere white . The main roads cleared very quickly but elsewhere was left picturesque . 

Snow can be localised which leaves some rather frustrated .

I personally think we have had our best chance of snow for the Winter ( nothing scientific ) 

[steveinsussex]

4 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Wave-2 tries to initially dominate as the Eddy's increase into the Strat but its clear that Wave-1 should be the clear 'winner' and increase pressure on the Eurasian-North American side of the Vortex. The main problem is how long we can keep up the Eddy's from the Trop.

There may be a slight downturn in the strength of the upwelling of Eddy's by mid month. We may need to get a SSW by then as the refraction of Strat Wave(s) may be less helpful beyond that. Also the strength of downward reflection of the possibly weaker zonal wind may be less if the downturn in upward wave flux does verify.

Less upward wave flux activity would mean if a SSW does happen it may not end up being able to properly downwell -VE zonal winds into the Trop. That's something to discuss properly closer to time though as I don't know any numbers to put to it and that of course relies on a SSW happening in the first place.

After all there's signs that this still won't be enough to stop a neutral/slightly positive Northern Annular Mode (or the Arctic Oscillation) long-term according to the GFS though the GEOS does support it decreasing nearer the surface/lower to mid Trop and moving up slowly with the increasing upward wave flux activity that may be more realistic than the GFS but that's just some Christmas bits probably.

Hence why we may be relying on the Strat though because note the development of -VE NAM in the upper Strat at the end of the GFS run, we need at least some downward reflection into the Trop pattern (doesn't necessarily need a SSW) and relying on large upward wave flux activity for that. So we need to keep up a +VE AAM and hence poleward Eddy's or at least get a few rebounds as keeping up a +VE AAM for as long as previous is very unlikely.

Posts like these should go in more detailed model thread

[Eagle Eye]

I've been focusing on the Strat for a while now and I've almost completely forgotten the pattern signals away from it.

Looking fairly flat right now hence the general displeasure with how things are going but tentative signals long range that we might see a more amplified Euro ridge moving towards a UK/Scandi blocking. This is so far out that it's unlikely to verify exactly but what is the general pattern looking like?

I think its too early for now and the progression of the Trop is over modelled on the GFS but slowly there are signs of a second EAJR that looks to be linked with a loss of mountain torque over the next few days.

The last time the energy scattering displaced itself from normal it interacted with the African high to draw up a Euro ridge and ended our return of cold chances as the Eurasian feedback to the EAJR ended too early and we saw a waxing of the Eurasian jet which in turn extended the Pacific jet and we ended up with the more zonal Atlantic despite what initially looked like it could be a Greenland blocking potentially forming I think it just took to long and the -VE zonal anomalies were just brushed under the carpet by the jet extension across the Atlantic. This time the waning of the 120E-180 and the feedback just beyond 60E (to the right) is looking fairly sustainable and so energy is likely scattered fairly well downstream but note the zonal setup over 60E moving further West and the weakening of the first Eurasian feedback. Not that that should matter that much as that wasn't a feedback as such just a form of energy scattering so it should end up waning. Beyond that though, the strength of any Eurasian feedback will therefore be difficult to determine because the zonal signal may override the EAJR signals feedback further East. Personally my view is that the Eurasiann feedback to the -VE mountain torque event is likely to be what that 120E event is and as that slowly spreads East, the building blocks of a Eurasian block will be slowly spread West and connect up with the far East of Europe towards the first week of January sometime. This feedback should stay fairly steady and then we're relying on the EAJR to scatter energy well enough (perhaps aided by the MJO because the timing is well enough with phase 6 that Rossby thermal transfer favourable for an unstable poleward Eddy's transfer may start increasing hence the chance of -VE AO starts increasing on the Models) that it will interact positively with the Euro high to start drawing it up (WAA) towards the Eurasian feedback and when they interact a Scandi high is possible. However, the initial zonal steady state across Europe may hinder that so I'll be watching how that evolves with a keen eye. Note that the Euro amplification in the models for later this week is shown by the Eurasian -VE anomaly over the next few days but I don't personally think that will be enough at the moment to form a Scandi high unless the Eurasian feedback forms quicker than my current thinking.

The MJO losing amplification over the next few weeks though so hopefully we can regain some AAM as we start losing it over the next few days otherwise I'm worried about keeping up poleward Eddy's. Phase 6 looks fairly amplified on the models but as we try and move towards Phase 7 we start losing the 'signal' for a strong amplification and so the downstream effects may be slightly minimised. Hopefully it's just being undermodelled at the moment.

And thank you @knocker I will read through that when I get back to my laptop later today as as phone won't open it (does that with a lot of files that I don't have the apps for, for obvious reasons of not having the right apps ).

[shawty1984]

26 minutes ago, MJB said:

Not really 

It does to me.

[blizzard81]

Quite a big change from this morning's run at only 4 days out from the ukmo. 

[Guest]

New Years Eve snow for northern England on the 12z GFS at 114 hours - big changes in the minor details making big differences.

 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:

New Years Eve snow for northern England on the 12z GFS at 114 hours - big changes in the minor details making big differences.

 

Was just about to post the same but you saved me the trouble

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

New Years Eve snow for northern England on the 12z GFS at 114 hours - big changes in the minor details making big differences.

 

GFS was showing 'runner' for today earlier last week, but was so far wrong

[blizzard81]

What an incredibly strange chart that is. 

[MJB]

LP to the NW vastly different to the 6z