Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Not to be sniffed at.. we go cool to cold via the ens- and that clustered sync becomes more defined. We are finally at a cross roads. And entry into the cold raffle ups.

There are a fair few that look to follow the ECM and GEM, onto the 12z’s to see if the UKMO and GEM stuck to their guns!  

[Duane S.]

17/01 (give or take) has been of interest in terms of a window of opportunity for a while now. This hasn’t changed.

[Cambrian]

This is all very heartening now, some solidly positive indications for getting the trough through to the east of us by the end of next weekend.

0z ECM ensemble mean and their anomaly charts through to day 10, with the corresponding T850s, definitely turning colder after day 6.

  

The build in Atlantic heights looks decisive, that should quieten it down for a while in terms of sending mild air our way, with a northwesterly flow taking hold for a fair while potentially. If the longwave trough sets up into Europe like this, the only path for any lows is from Greenland, mixed in with a good deal of cold air, down the side of the Atlantic ridge, diving southeastwards into Europe. These lows, are in effect, bringing their own packets of cold air with them.

Days 7 to 10 on the 0z ECM op shows one of these, forming over the southern tip of Greenland and heading directly southeast, through the UK and Ireland to Central Europe, with some decent uppers onboard.

 

By day 10, the next low is rounding the southern tip of Greenland and heights are building up through the Eastern Seaboard, squeezing out the Newfoundland trough, to seal the deal with the Azores high. The passage of the low from Greenland to Europe replenishes the longwave Euro trough, the low running down to the base of the trough also draws it back west again to keep us in the northwesterly flow. This looks like the kind of pattern that could repeatedly reload from there. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

DRL you should put yourself in those netweather dungeons for the week for saying you can't wait for Spring.

Let's at least have a decent burst of Winter first...Summers these days tend to drag on for ages. 

Now get to the naughty step

Would be nice to have a decent shot of proper Winter weather before the season is through with us, since there is still plenty of time for it. A lot of people on here would love that. Some of the chillier shots the models showing later into there runs that, should they not water-down much, giving a flavour of more wintrier weather. Perhaps with Southern areas in for a surprise also from any runner Lows from the main troughing to our North/East going through the South of the UK. So is a start (without forgetting that the first part of December was pretty amazing for its cold weather, despite some snow shields staying strong for some). 

You could argue really that like other seasons Winter is about the variety. Great having a mixture of different weather types. With snow and cold clearly being a favourite for some. And I think the weather that some of us wish was more dominant.

I do totally understand MattWolves, I’ll get in that naughty corner right away and think about what I’ve done.

PS: Still like Winter, just less than I used to (also feeling bit bipolar/rough currently), so hopefully that will reduce my time in the naughty corner for 1 less second. 

Without the risk of bringing this thread too off topic, the rest of you could end up in our naughty corner or dungeons like me if your posts are off topic, or just moaning about the Winter . 

[tight isobar]

41 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There are a fair few that look to follow the ECM and GEM, onto the 12z’s to see if the UKMO and GEM stuck to their guns!  

We hope so- it’s currently a cool dreary wet gloomy day here @ Uxbridge .. my craving for more seasonal cold with all the trimmings is spiked hard!!

[minus10]

Just look at the way the vortex is being diced and spliced later in the gfs 6z run..(i know)

...does show though that prospects for colder weather have to be enhanced as long as there is no strong, single solid vortex core being shown ...

.....also kinder reminds me of those 70s lava lamps...

[Met4Cast]

The latest extended GFS keeps the SPV above average into early February with no sign of an SSW. The latest run has trended away from the idea of an average vortex back in favour of slightly stronger. 

Worth noting the above is broadly supported by GLOSEA with the model not really suggesting an SSW is likely either, although a weakening from current strong values does seem likely. 

A change to something cooler mid month in the form of cold zonality, snow probably favoured across N Hills. 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The latest extended GFS keeps the SPV above average into early February with no sign of an SSW. The latest run has trended away from the idea of an average vortex back in favour of slightly stronger. 

Worth noting the above is broadly supported by GLOSEA with the model not really suggesting an SSW is likely either, although a weakening from current strong values does seem likely. 

A change to something cooler mid month in the form of cold zonality, snow probably favoured across N Hills. 

Oh dear! - but it does state they exhibit a bias though so hopefully take away a few m/s off that.

Edited January 8, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The latest extended GFS keeps the SPV above average into early February with no sign of an SSW. The latest run has trended away from the idea of an average vortex back in favour of slightly stronger. 

Worth noting the above is broadly supported by GLOSEA with the model not really suggesting an SSW is likely either, although a weakening from current strong values does seem likely. 

A change to something cooler mid month in the form of cold zonality, snow probably favoured across N Hills. 

A sobering post and will be interesting to see what the next EC46 shows, will it stick to its guns or back off?!  Explains why the Met Office updates continue to not see any sign of significant cold likely!

Edited January 8, 2023 by Don

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Not to be sniffed at.. we go cool to cold via the ens- and that clustered sync becomes more defined. We are finally at a cross roads. And entry into the cold raffle ups.

Still very messy before then, but it does look like whatever happens cold will come. Only thing is, it's still a waiting game for now, looks like we have two lows to get through before then, the two bumps in the line, and after the second is where the scatter starts. Don't think we should trust anything from then on.

Edited January 8, 2023 by alexisj9

[mulzy]

51 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The latest extended GFS keeps the SPV above average into early February with no sign of an SSW. The latest run has trended away from the idea of an average vortex back in favour of slightly stronger. 

Worth noting the above is broadly supported by GLOSEA with the model not really suggesting an SSW is likely either, although a weakening from current strong values does seem likely. 

A change to something cooler mid month in the form of cold zonality, snow probably favoured across N Hills. 

Stating the obvious but, tomorrow's ECM sub-seasonal could give us future clues - will it stick to a weakening of the SPV or will it flip back to what the Ext GFS is showing?  Time will tell as ever...

[syed2878]

4 hours ago, swfc said:

Great point. The max fi must be 144 hrs . It's akin to fishing without any bait and continually casting 

%

I think it would even be shorter time, especially with the way the gfs is performing at the moment, very poor at short lead times so I think safe, but with the GFS would be 96, 120h I really do hope NOAA. Really take a look at their model again and iron out what ever the issue is.

[northwestsnow]

Absolutely huge disconnect between EC 00z and the Exeter update..

Im assuming EC 00z is for the litter tray because that run had frost and snow  the Exeter update is basically wind and rain..

[Nick2373]

   

Same pattern then ? Mild, Coldish Mild etc. All this talk around SSW Events and as Metcast pointed out nothing in the offering another week of rain showers sunny spells typical UK January. The straw pot is once again jammed with options.  Perhaps a Straw to grab around the 23rd GEFS 10hPa picking up something. ?

Edited January 8, 2023 by Nick2373

[mulzy]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely huge disconnect between EC 00z and the Exeter update..

Im assuming EC 00z is for the litter tray because that run had frost and snow  the Exeter update is basically wind and rain..

To avoid disappointment, stick to Exeter.  No signs of prolonged cold and significant lowland snow (for now).

[Bricriu]

Can we have confidence in the GFS strat output considering how poor its output  has been for the troposphere.? Although the Exeter update is a concern, it must be that Glosea is seeing no signs of a SSW. Is it possible if this is being led by the trop that it might not pick up on a possible SSW yet? I guess as others have said the next ec46 may reveal a lot. 

Edited January 8, 2023 by Bricriu

[swfc]

Seem to be a lot of pontificating over things way out in fi ie Exeter updates, ssw etc. Maybe stick to the models within reliable time frames. Might be better health wise

Edited January 8, 2023 by swfc

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

To avoid disappointment, stick to Exeter.  No signs of prolonged cold and significant lowland snow (for now).

Yes probably sensible Mulzy.

EC did suggest sub zero minima and snow this morning ,yesterday Daniel posted an EC derived chart showing temps in Manchester 4 by day 0 by night next week..

Exeter making a mockery of the above ..

[swfc]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes probably sensible Mulzy.

EC did suggest sub zero minima and snow this morning ,yesterday Daniel posted an EC derived chart showing temps in Manchester 4 by day 0 by night next week..

Exeter making a mockery of the above ..

Meto saying chance of some wintry weather going into Feb but low confidence 

[Ali1977]

44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely huge disconnect between EC 00z and the Exeter update..

Im assuming EC 00z is for the litter tray because that run had frost and snow  the Exeter update is basically wind and rain..

They were late updating the longer range yesterday, could be the case today 

[MJB]

44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely huge disconnect between EC 00z and the Exeter update..

Im assuming EC 00z is for the litter tray because that run had frost and snow  the Exeter update is basically wind and rain..

February, confidence is markedly low.

Enough said 

[January Snowstorm]

Icon looks cold next weekend with hints of it drying up by Sunday. Would be cold and frosty but for how long....uppers not conducive to snow away from Northern hills. The problem of low heights to our North remains

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by January Snowstorm

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Icon looks cold next weekend with hints of it drying up by Sunday. Would be cold and frosty but for how long....uppers not conducive to snow away from Northern hills. The problem of low heights to our North remains

It would be cold enough for snow under slack winds, could do with that mid lat block heading much further north though.

ECM 46 is going to be a nail biter at 8pm tomorrow to see if it still holds SSW promise in the last week of January 

Edited January 8, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, MJB said:

February, confidence is markedly low.

Enough said 

Which leaves the previous 3 weeks forecast OK? Anyway if the ssw isn't imminent or likely given and  the MJO situation anyone fancy a punt over the next ten days. 144 hrs for me is max

Edited January 8, 2023 by swfc

[MJB]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It would be cold enough for snow under slack winds, could do with that mid lat block heading much further north though.

ECM 46 is going to be a nail biter at 8pm tomorrow to see if it still holds SSW promise in the last week of January 

EC 46 Please don't make me laugh - I have asked my daughter to draw some charts with pink and blue crayons - she will be closer to the mark

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Which leaves the previous 3 weeks forecast OK? Anyway if the ssw isn't imminent or likely given and  the MJO situation anyone fancy a punt over the next ten days. 144 hrs for me is max

You are being optimistic at 144 - at best in the Winter it's 120 .