Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Big Gally]

Just now, swfc said:

Beast??? Cold flow granted but nothing exceptional tbh

Wishful thinking. 

[Methuselah]

Just now, swfc said:

Beast??? Cold flow granted but nothing exceptional tbh

When GFS it showeth rain, it's nothing but a chronic pain; but when it showeth loads of snow... It's the best thing since sliced bread!

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Beast??? Cold flow granted but nothing exceptional tbh

Eh?  Not to be taken  seriously as out in FI but a bit more than a cold flow.

Edited January 10, 2023 by That ECM

[Nick F]

9 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

I’m sure the 18z was showing the beast around the 25th last night. The gfs has been up and down more times than the UK food prices. Time will tell..

I missed the 18z pub run special yesterday, 4 days of early shift, but indeed it was, a little less beastly, but still has -10C T850 line knocking on the door of eastern UK

Edited January 10, 2023 by Nick F

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

When GFS it showeth rain, it's nothing but a chronic pain; but when it showeth loads of snow... It's the best thing since sliced bread!

Very cynical Ed

[MATTWOLVES 3]

So far so good folks...its looks like it does become colder by the Weekend...We then seem to have plenty of scope for showers to develop,and these becoming increasingly wintry in nature..infact I think that by late this week the met may start to put warnings in place for snow and ice,coupled with strong winds! And it's at this stage that little features that ain't showing there hand right now,start to come into play.

So there's a good chance that some will drop very lucky...others will miss out,but the fact we are in this position brings the scope for suprises to crop up at very short notice.

So shall I say...it looks very interesting! 

The next big thing will be how many of you will be that excited you decide to take the plunge and run naked in the snow! It's a big step!! Do be warned you could shock the neighbours or even make the birds fall at your feet(the flying variety that is)

So it's a heads up from me this evening

@Ed Stone it says Blessed over my eyebrow...i think now though i should have had Cursed

Edited January 10, 2023 by MATTWOLVES

[Rain All Night]

Tuesday means from GEFS and GEPS.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

So far so good folks...its looks like it does become colder by the Weekend...We then seem to have plenty of scope for showers to develop,and these becoming increasingly wintry in nature..infact I think that by late this week the met may start to put warnings in place for snow and ice,coupled with strong winds! And it's at this stage that little features that ain't showing there hand right now,start to come into play.

So there's a good chance that some will drop very lucky...others will miss out,but the fact we are in this position brings the scope for suprises to crop up at very short notice.

So shall I say...it looks very interesting! 

The next big thing will be how many of you will be that excited you decide to take the plunge and run naked in the snow! It's a big step!! Do be warned you could shock the neighbours or even make the birds fall at your feet(the flying variety that is)

So it's a heads up from me this evening

What are those things on your heid, Matt, are you one of the Borg?

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

What are those things on your heid, Matt, are you one of the Borg?

Tatoo dude like me lol

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Tuesday means from GEFS and GEPS.

ECM mean something like this hopefully

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM mean something like this hopefully

Looks like a plan but slightly unerving Ali tbh

Edited January 10, 2023 by swfc

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM mean something like this hopefully

Knocker wouldn't like you using his crayons like that esp the purple ones

[Bricriu]

35 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Eh?  Not to be taken  seriously as out in FI but a bit more than a cold flow.

If that comes off snow fans on the East Coast of Ireland might be sickened and looking on in envy,  as it looks to me like that the cold air won't reach Ireland. It has a whiff of something that happened about a decade ago in February. Anyway given how abysmal the GFS has been lately I doubt it will happen. I would love if it did, though, as i will be in London that week.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Bricriu

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

If that comes off snow fans on the East Coast of Ireland might be sickened and looking on in envy,  as it looks to me like that the cold air won't reach Ireland. It has a whiff of something that happened about a decade ago in February. Anyway given how abysmal the GFS has been lately I doubt it will happen. I would love if it did, though, as i will be in London that week.

If (it won’t) but if this happened the cold would be on the way to Ireland in the next day or so!! 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Ali1977

[minus10]

30 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

So far so good folks...its looks like it does become colder by the Weekend...We then seem to have plenty of scope for showers to develop,and these becoming increasingly wintry in nature..infact I think that by late this week the met may start to put warnings in place for snow and ice,coupled with strong winds! And it's at this stage that little features that ain't showing there hand right now,start to come into play.

So there's a good chance that some will drop very lucky...others will miss out,but the fact we are in this position brings the scope for suprises to crop up at very short notice.

So shall I say...it looks very interesting! 

The next big thing will be how many of you will be that excited you decide to take the plunge and run naked in the snow! It's a big step!! Do be warned you could shock the neighbours or even make the birds fall at your feet(the flying variety that is)

So it's a heads up from me this evening

@Ed Stone it says Blessed over my eyebrow...i think now though i should have had Cursed

"And i said the other day that i would be running down to the gym naked if a cold spell comes soon

...and WHOOSH!!!"

 

...thats what we want to see Si..

...gfes 12z looking cold for a while at least now in my neck of the woods...

....with the control having another go at the end...now looking interesting..

[Northwest NI]

27 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM mean something like this hopefully

For a minute I thought that was photoshopped 

[JBMWeatherForever]

Increasing wintry potential from the weekend, and certainly at time next week. Also with such cold uppers closing in on us by the end of next week an increasing possibility now of severe cold reaching our shores from the east. Looks like the main course for this winter is being plated up in the kitchen.

[Ali1977]

ECM and UKMO both good at 144, but also different !! 

[Ali1977]

168 looks loaded with snow potential , I’m looking fwd to this set up - can you tell sorry for all the posts 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM and UKMO both good at 144, but also different !! 

Think I prefer ECM here.  Cold very much incoming T144:

Looks smoother to keep the cold coming, coming from the NW want it as uninterrupted as possible and avoid a mild sector.  

Edited January 10, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Stuie]

For a 7 day chart, you don`t really want this to modify the milder way. Interesting week.

 

[Northwest NI]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

For a 7 day chart, you don`t really want this to modify the milder way. Interesting week.

 

The big green bite into the blue over Black Sea/Ukraine instead of our locale for once.

[Mike Poole]

Now you’re talking, ECM!

Snow for many.  Some reasonable margin of error with the cold plunge on this run, too.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland]

Edited January 10, 2023 by Tim Bland

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Northwest NI said:

The big green bite into the blue over Black Sea/Ukraine instead of our locale for once.

Yep, do need some Atlantic ridging or we may be too West, i.e. progress East.