June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

From the 10th to 26, there has only been 1 day < 17C.  I remember in the exceptional July 2018 it was similar for the whole month, but to get a similar period (albeit slightly shorter) so early in the summer is exceptional.

Every day from the 9th to the 25th has exceeded 26C somewhere with 15 of these 17 days above 80f (26.7)

Every day of the month has exceeded 23C somewhere.  (We'll see if that continues for the last 2 days)

Mean Max is about 4C above average

Therefore, some exceptional temperature stats for the month I feel

An exceptional month. No absolute record breaking heat but date records gone for heat.

Despite the persistant warmth because nothing higher than 32 degrees, it will probably not linger in the memory long. People tend to remember the extremes only. 

[SummerShower]

After yesterday's 19.0 we now need an average of 13.8 for the last 2 days to get to 16.9 exactly.  I believe 1976 was 16.89 from another post.  This should easily be doable, only thing that would stop it is a very cool night tonight I think

[Summer Sun]

17.1c to the 28th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

The more precise value is 479.4/28 or 17.12 (possibly a bit lower if as suspected they are taking an average of precise average max and min, then closer to 17.08). Today appears to be around 15 to 16 and would leave it within 17.1 (from 15.6, 495.0/29 = 17.07). If 30th is only 14.0 that would give a final result of 509.0, 508.5 or higher would stay in 17.0. 

[damianslaw]

Probably will end on 17 degrees. Warmer than 1976. Did anyone see it coming? 

[Scorcher]

On 28/06/2023 at 22:06, damianslaw said:

An exceptional month. No absolute record breaking heat but date records gone for heat.

Despite the persistant warmth because nothing higher than 32 degrees, it will probably not linger in the memory long. People tend to remember the extremes only. 

It's been a very memorable month for me. 32C is not to be sniffed at in June- even the hot ones. We've exceeded 31C here as well which is rare in June- very memorable overall and extremely sunny before this last week.

[Scorcher]

On 27/06/2023 at 14:43, Daniel* said:

A below average day in part of CET zone at last, Pershore with 18.7C at 2pm unlikely to rise much more with cloud. The night was still quite mild though min 13C. My prediction a finish of 16.9C tied warmest with 1976.

Not sure where you're getting your figures- the max for Tuesday in Pershore was 19.9C:

Meteociel - Climatologie mensuelle de Pershore ( United Kingdom )

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Résumé mensuel des observations météo ( températures minimales et maximales, précipitations et ensoleillement) de la station Pershore ( United Kingdom )

 

[richie3846]

50 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It's been a very memorable month for me. 32C is not to be sniffed at in June- even the hot ones. We've exceeded 31C here as well which is rare in June- very memorable overall and extremely sunny before this last week.

Date records were broken on 3 days, not necessarily within the CET area of course, but still represents some significant spikes in heat, which will be remembered - the 13th June enigma waves us farewell. 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Not sure where you're getting your figures- the max for Tuesday in Pershore was 19.9C:

Meteociel - Climatologie mensuelle de Pershore ( United Kingdom )

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Résumé mensuel des observations météo ( températures minimales et maximales, précipitations et ensoleillement) de la station Pershore ( United Kingdom )

 

I know, there was some late sunshine late temp boost. Pershore tonight looks set to have a relatively cool night. Does look like cloud will move in from west in early hours though, preventing it from getting that cool.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 17.3C  +2.6C above average. Rainfall 43mm 55.9% of the monthly average.

Radar thinks it's raining but it's dry so unlikely to be any more added to rainfall total. So seeing what today's Max will be and whether it will drop the final figure down for us.

 

[richie3846]

Quick question for anyone in the know. 

Does tonight's minimum temperature leading into the 1st morning of July, also get included in the CET figure?

[rwtwm]

27 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

Quick question for anyone in the know. 

Does tonight's minimum temperature leading into the 1st morning of July, also get included in the CET figure?

From the hadobs page:

"Note that the estimated mean value may not be equal to (max+min)/2 because there is always one more minimum value than maximum. This discrepancy is exaggerated during the first part of the month and when the nights have suddenly become significantly colder or warmer."  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Suggests to me that tonight's minimum is the first measurement in July.

[kold weather]

12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Probably will end on 17 degrees. Warmer than 1976. Did anyone see it coming? 

I think we can thank the very warm SSTs for this. The waters in the Atlantic as a whole are basically a month ahead. So it probably shouldn't be all that surprising that temperature wise we've resembled a July.

I think this month absolutely is a classic though, mean sunshine way above normal, temperatures way above normal, drier than normal. I'd say its been a little warmer though than you'd expect synoptically, but again the very warm waters around us go some way to explaining that.

The other thing to remember is that June 1976 was warm, but only went really exceptional towards the final week.

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, rwtwm said:

From the hadobs page:

"Note that the estimated mean value may not be equal to (max+min)/2 because there is always one more minimum value than maximum. This discrepancy is exaggerated during the first part of the month and when the nights have suddenly become significantly colder or warmer."  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Suggests to me that tonight's minimum is the first measurement in July.

I see, yes that makes sense now. So I think they are saying this:

1st 10c min (night of 30th), 20c max, 10c min (night of 1st)

2nd 20c max, 10c min

3rd 20c max, 10c min

The average comes out at 14.28c, where of course we would expect this to be 15c by the end of the month, if it were to carry on like this to the end. That's a substantial skew at the beginning, if I have this right. 

[damianslaw]

Today one of those where the mean will be above average but largely due to minimal diurnal range.

Maxima supressed, indeed its only 17.2 degrees here now, some 2-3 degrees below the average, but minima expected to be 15 degrees, above the mean appreciably.

[SummerShower]

I make it that we need a CET of 11.6 today to get to 16.90 and beat 1976 16.89.  13.1 will guarantee a 17.0 reading for the month (will be 16.95 rounded up).  This is after 16.0 yesterday.

[Summer Sun]

17.1c to the 29th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

June 2023 will I suspect beat many July and Augusts in some years. Good to know how many say last 20 years. 

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, kold weather said:

I think we can thank the very warm SSTs for this. The waters in the Atlantic as a whole are basically a month ahead. So it probably shouldn't be all that surprising that temperature wise we've resembled a July.

 

But is that true? as most of the time we have had an Easterly feed, so the Atlantic wouldnt have had any impact?...

[richie3846]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Today one of those where the mean will be above average but largely due to minimal diurnal range.

Maxima supressed, indeed its only 17.2 degrees here now, some 2-3 degrees below the average, but minima expected to be 15 degrees, above the mean appreciably.

We've been discussing that tonight probably falls into July's CET, so may not influence June's results.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

But is that true? as most of the time we have had an Easterly feed, so the Atlantic wouldnt have had any impact?...

I think the SSTs have had some influence, the high to the NW enabled warm southerlies to move north into the atlantic and warmed the air around the flank of the high. 

[Metwatch]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

June 2023 will I suspect beat many July and Augusts in some years. Good to know how many say last 20 years. 

If this June was to finish at 17.0°C, only about 75 Julys and about 40 Augusts will have been warmer, (give or take a few).

No September has ever had a CET of 17.0°C or above though.

Edit: One for @Earthshine , if we assume the Mean max CET for June finishes at 22.7°C, then only 20 Julys will have had a higher value, and only 12 Augusts will have been warmer.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Metwatch

[Don]

19 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Probably will end on 17 degrees. Warmer than 1976. Did anyone see it coming? 

From the second week of the month, yes.

[Weather-history]

Rainfall wise, pretty unremarkable. Dry records are very hard to beat. 

[Don]

Here is today's weather snap podcast from the Met Office, talking about Antarctic sea ice and the hot June with Alex looking rather amusing!