June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

EWP annual scoring update _ adjusted for June final value 46.5 mm

For June scoring ranks, scroll back to combined CET-EWP scoring table for June.

This table updates all annual scores for (a) forecasters with 3 or more entries and (b) anyone else who entered June. 

Some scoring ranks are therefore left out near the end of the list. To be ranked for average error, four to seven contest forecasts are required.

In the table, n is number of months entered. 

 

Rank __ FORECASTER __________ n ___ TOTAL PTS ____ AVG ERROR (rank) 

_01 ___ Leo97t _________________ 7 ___ 51.69 _________ 20.57 ( 1 )

_02 ___ snowray ________________7 ___ 50.21 _________ 22.79 ( 3 )

_03 ___ Reef ____________________ 7 ___ 48.26 _________ 23.79 ( 4 )

_04 ___ Mulzy ___________________7 ___ 45.87 _________ 24.63 ( 5 )

_05 ___ February1978 __________ 7 ___ 45.36 _________ 25.57 ( 7 )

_06 ___ DR(S)NO ________________ 7 ___ 44.43 _________ 26.09 ( 9 )

_07 ___ Emmett Garland ________7 ___ 43.57 _________ 26.63 (11)

_08 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ________7 ___ 43.37 _________ 26.49 (10)

_09 ___ Midlands Ice Age _______ 7 ___ 43.16 _________ 29.43 (22)

_10 ___ dancerwithwings _______ 7 ___ 42.21 _________ 29.89 (23)

_11 ___ Mapantz _________________7 ___ 42.18 _________ 28.20 (18)

_12 ___ Weather Observer ______ 7 ___ 42.08 _________ 27.86 (16)

_13 ___ seaside60 _______________ 7 ___ 41.84 _________ 30.94 (26)

_14 ___ bobd29 _________________ 7 ___ 41.80 _________ 25.80 ( 8 )

_15 ___ Jeff C ____________________ 7 ___ 41.46 _________ 29.20 (21)

_16 ___ jonboy __________________ 7 ___ 41.42 _________ 27.74 (15)

_17 ___ Stationary Front _________7 ___ 40.74 _________ 26.74 (12)

_18 ___prolongedSnowLover ____ 7 ___ 39.73 _________ 25.10 ( 6 )

_19 ___ Summer Shower _________6 ___ 39.11 _________ 26.77 (13)

_20 ___ daniel* ___________________7 ___ 38.58 _________ 31.71 (28)

_21 ___ virtualsphere ____________ 7 ___ 38.22 _________ 30.89 (25)

_22 ___ J 10 ______________________ 7 ___ 38.20 _________ 28.34 (17)

_23 ___ Wold Topper _____________ 7 ___ 38.01 _________ 30.29 (24)

_24 ___ Polar Gael ________________7 ___ 37.89 _________ 31.07 (27)

_25 ___ DiagonalRedLine _________ 6 ___ 33.52 _________ 33.52 (37)

_26 ___ I Remember Atl252 _______6 ___ 33.40 _________ 28.32 (19)

_27 ___ Don _______________________7 ___ 32.91 _________ 31.91 (29)

_28 ___ davehsug _________________7 ___ 32.53 _________ 33.20 (34)

_29 ___ Methuselah ______________ 7 ___ 32.40 _________ 34.34 (39)

_30 ___ Norrance _________________ 7 ___ 31.99 _________ 32.60 (33) 

_31 ___ freeze _____________________5 ___ 31.95 _________ 31.92 (30)

_32 ___ summer8906 _____________ 5 ___ 31.44 _________ 21.34 ( 2 )

_33 ___ noname_weather _________7 ___ 30.85 _________ 34.24 (38)

_34 ___ The PIT ___________________ 7 ___ 30.60 _________ 36.43 (t41)

_35 ___ Roger J Smith _____________ 7 ___ 30.55 _________ 32.07 (31)

_36 ___ summer18 ________________7 ___ 29.30 _________ 33.34 (35)

_37 ___ stewfox ___________________ 5 ___ 29.13 _________ 27.44 (14)

_38 ___ shillitocettwo ______________7 ___ 27.52 _________ 43.17 (51)

_39 ___ SLEETY ____________________ 7 ___ 27.10 _________ 35.57 (40)

_40 ___ Godber 1 __________________ 7 ___ 26.79 _________ 36.43 (t41)

t41 ___ Weather26 _________________6 ___ 26.38 _________ 29.10 (20)

t41 ___ rwtwm _____________________ 7 ___ 26.38 _________ 38.34 (46)

_43 ___ Cymro _____________________ 4 ___ 26.11 _________ 36.88 (43)

_44 ___ Mr Maunder _______________ 7 ___ 24.88 _________ 38.06 (45)

_45 ___ syed2878 ___________________7 ___ 24.23 _________ 41.46 (48)

_46 ___ summer blizzard ___________ 7 ___ 23.97 _________ 41.14 (47)

_47 ___ Moorlander _________________7 ___ 21.76 _________ 42.49 (50)

_48 ___ Neil N _______________________6 ___ 21.28 _________ 37.57 (44)

_49 ___ SteveB ______________________ 7 ___ 20.65 _________ 41.94 (49)

_50 ___ Frigid ________________________7 ___ 19.63 _________ 48.23 (55)

_51 ___ Metwatch ___________________ 6 ___ 19.11 _________ 49.87 (56)

_52 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather __________ 5 ___ 19.01 _________ 44.90 (53)

_53 ___ Blast From the Past _________4 ___ 18.63 _________ 44.15 (52)

_54 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers __ 4 ___ 17.04 _________ 32.58 (32)

_55 ___ B87 __________________________2 ___ 16.12 __________ 6.00 ( --- )

_56 ___ sunny_vale __________________ 4 ___ 14.15 _________ 33.48 (36)

_57 ___ Let It Snow! __________________3 ___ 14.06 _________ 51.47 ( --- )

_58 ___ catbrainz ____________________ 3 ___ 13.94 _________ 41.50 ( --- )

_59 ___ Earthshine ___________________5 ___ 13.70 _________ 45.70 (54)

_60 ___ chilly milly ___________________ 7 ___ 12.14 _________ 57.39 (57)

 

(5.8) __ Consensus ___________________7 ___ 44.61 _________ 27.99 (16.2)

(16.4) _ 1981-2010 average __________7 ___ 41.13 _________ 25.24 (6.3)

(24.1) _ 1991-2020 average __________7 ___ 37.30 _________ 27.06 (13.5)

 

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by Roger J Smith
rank 35 for avg error was 56, all ranks 36-56 improved by 1

[Earthshine]

With a maximum mean CET of 22.6C, June 2023 would have been (with the exception of last year) warmer than any August since 2003.

[damianslaw]

What was the rainfall total for June. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker at 48.8 mm. That value is sometimes adjusted on 5th of month. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 01/07/2023 at 17:08, Dancerwithwings said:

1st last month and possibly this month…..surely not

Move aside MIA, DWW is coming through lol

Just been watchin the T.D. France..

Hadn't realised we  were in competition....

I thought it was my job to set a fast pace for you!!!!   (Team orders..)

This month I'll collect the rain water gauges for you, and hand them over when we get to the final week.

That way you'll overtake me on the final run in...

I am getting a bit old for a final run up to the line. But I'll  do my best..

MIA

[J10]

Excel  June 2023 CET.xlsx

Summaries June 2023 Summary.pdfJune 2023 Summary Overall.pdf

Monthly / Seasonal
No one got it spot on this month.

The top 3 this month, Earthshine, Polar Gael and jonboy.

The top 10 very similar to the monthly positions.

Overall

The top 5 last month remains the same but with slight ordering changes.

Leo97t remains in the lead.
DR(S)NO remains 2nd. 
reef is 4th from 3rd.
The PIT is 3td from 4th.
Metwatch  remains 5th.

6th - 9th is the same players, but again in a different order.
To complete the Top 10, this month's winner Earthshine is 10th up from 21st.

 

Edited July 3, 2023 by J10

[Snowyowl9]

On 02/07/2023 at 18:46, damianslaw said:

What was the rainfall total for June. 

What was the thunderstorm map for june,,,

Thunderstorm map which I can t find showed way more over us to the actual rain was in the midlands..

[Metwatch]

1 minute ago, Snowyowl9 said:

What was the thunderstorm map for june,,,

Thunderstorm map which I can t find showed way more over us to the actual rain was in the midlands..

 

[damianslaw]

As I expected a bit of a patchwork for rain. Ended up near average, taking the edge off the heat and sunshine, meaning it won't go down as a top summer month here. 

[Frigid]

10 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

 

The NW and midlands got pelted. Probably the most thundery June on record here, can't think of any that would beat it. 

[Metwatch]

1 minute ago, Frigid said:

The NW and midlands got pelted. Probably the most thundery June on record here, can't think of any that would beat it. 

This and June 2020 are probably the most thundery Junes I can recall for our areas. We have been overdue a very thundery June before 2020, involving more in the way of homegrown thunderstorms. 

[TonyH]

4 hours ago, Metwatch said:

This and June 2020 are probably the most thundery Junes I can recall for our areas. We have been overdue a very thundery June before 2020, involving more in the way of homegrown thunderstorms. 

June 1982 the most thundery month I have experienced that was in Coventry.

[Frigid]

4 hours ago, Metwatch said:

This and June 2020 are probably the most thundery Junes I can recall for our areas. We have been overdue a very thundery June before 2020, involving more in the way of homegrown thunderstorms. 

June 2020 was quite thundery yes, remember an intense storm around the 18th. But last month, there was a storm every week.. and strangely happened every Sunday. 

[Roger J Smith]

Unable to close EWP contest scoring yet, the usual table value appearance on 5th has not occurred yet. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP table value is only 46.5 mm, a full 2.3 mm below the tracker value. This is a larger departure than most months. It's going to require a bit of work to adjust the scoring tables, You'll see when that work is done by edited wording in the tables making reference to 7th of July table value.