June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

(a) CET forecasts -- the averages and extremes

includes all values 1981 to 2022, bold warmest, italic middle third, underlined coolest third. (14, 15, 13 due to ties). 

where possible I have converted values from CET legacy to the new CET v2.0.1.0. Notice this produces a new warmest June day. The 30-year average for 1992-2021 has finally overtaken the previous high benchmark for June (1822-51) as cool June 1991 was dropped for warm June 2021. That means we no longer have any month with its warmest 30-year interval in the distant past. On the other hand, quite a few Junes in the interval 1981 to 2000 have been dropped by 0.1 or 0.2 in v2.0, and this leads to lower averages for 1961-90, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 than we have been listing here (each has dropped by 0.1). 

23.2 ... 19th, 2005, warmest daily mean

18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June)

18.0 ... 1676 (2nd warmest)

17.3 ... 1826 (3rd warmest)

17.1 ... 1822 (4th warmest)

16.9 ... 1762, 1976, 1798 (5th-7th warmest)

16.1 ... 2018

16.0 ... 2017

15.9 ... 2003

15.8 ... 2005, 2006

15.7 ... 1992

15.5 ... 1982, 2021

15.3 ... 2004, 2020

15.2 ... 2010, 2016

15.1 ... 2007, 2014

15.0 ... 1993

14.9 ... 2000, 2022 ... average for 2001-2022

14.8 ... 1992-2021 average (highest 30-year average for June)

14.7 ... 2009 ... 1993-2022 average

14.72 .. 1822-1851 had the warmest 30-year average of 14.72 until 1992-2021 moved past it to 14.76. Back down to 14.73 for 1993-2022.

14.6 ... 1986, and 1991-2020 average (fell by .05 to 14.64 in v2.0). 

14.5 ... average for 1701-1800

14.4 ... 1984, 1989, 1994, 1996 and average for 1981-2010

14.3 ... 1983, 2002  and average for all years 1659-2022 (14.33), also 1801-1900

14.2 ... 1988, 1995, 2001, 2019 and average for 1901-2000

14.1 ... 1998 and average for 1961-1990, also 1659-1700

14.0 ... 1997 and average for 1971-2000

13.9 ... 2008, 2015

13.8 ... 1999

13.7 ... 2011

13.6 ... 2013

13.5 ... 1990, 2012

13.1 ... 1981

12.7 ... 1987 

12.6 ... 1985

12.0 ... 1689, 1698

11.9 ... 1749 and 1991 (tied 5th coldest)

11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest)

11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June)

 7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

__________________________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________

Enter the CET forecast contest by end of the day Wednesday 31st of May without penalty, or on any of the first three days of June with increasing late penalties.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___________ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 

========================================================================

 

(b) _ EWP contest

The contest uses the England and Wales Hadley precip series (1766 to present) as its source. 

Predict the June 2023 rainfall in mm.

 

160.1 mm __ 2012 wettest 1766 to 2022

157.1 mm __ 1860 (2nd wettest 1766 to 2022)

_70.5 mm __ mean 1991-2020

_69.5 mm __ mean 1993-2022

_66.6 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2022

_66.3 mm __ mean 1981-2010

_16.5 mm __ 2018 driest 1981-2022 (20.2 mm in 1995 previous minimum)

__4.3 mm __ 1925 driest 1766-2022

In recent years, 2022_50.7 mm___2021_59.5 mm___2020_98.3 mm___2019_116.3 mm___2018_16.5 mm___2017_93.8 mm

___ 2016_114.0 mm___2015_38.8 mm___2014_49.8 mm___2013_37.6 mm___2012_160.1 mm___2011___82.0 mm____2010_42.7 mm.

- - - - - _______________________________ - - - - -

Enter the EWP contest (add your forecast to your CET temp forecast), same deadlines and from 1st to 3rd of June, it's 0.3 point deductions per day late to end of 3rd. Maximum score is 10.0 for closest forecast, all others are scored on a sliding scale by rank down to 0.0 points for least accurate. Duplicate entries lose 2/3 of a scoring interval by order of entry. 

Good luck in both contests !!

_ __ ___ ____ _____ ______ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _

Edited June 30, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Weather26]

14.8C and 75mm please

[B87]

15.7c and 50mm.

[Dancerwithwings]

16.2c & 49 mm

[JeffC]

15.2 C and 60mm please

[Don]

That time of the month already!

[SummerShower]

Exceptionally busy planning a wedding and house move, so will go now while I remember.  

I am surprised we haven't had  a 17c June since 1976 in this era of warming 

And I don't think it will happen this year unfortunately, as much as I want it too.

I fear it will start like June 1995 with northern blocking, so will go 14.4, but also dry with 34mm

[NeilN]

14,1c and 55mm. 

[Earthshine]

17.2°C and 85mm

First week sees the Iberian Low begin to influence our weather.  With warmer than average SST (particularly further SW) the warmth from here will pick up a huge amount of moisture.  This will be the theme for June, with the occasional building in of the Scandinavian High.  Sunny but frequent heavy showers, particularly as June progresses.  We see the new highest minimum mean CET on record, with a remarkable 12.5°C (beating 11.6°C in June 2017) thanks to high SST and large amounts of moisture.

[Bobd29]

15.6C and 70mm for me please.

[sunny_vale]

15.8C and 30mm for me please.

Generally fine, dry and warm start, then mid-month heralds the start of plumageddon which sets the tone for the rest of the summer . . .

[Polar Gael]

16.5°C and 60.0mm for me please.

[snowray]

16c and 65mm please.

[chilly milly]

15.4c and 88mm please

[Shillitocettwo]

Ignoring the 3 month forecast I wrote on the Summer thread......

 

 16.0.C and 42mm.

 

   I think we have a predominantly dry and sunny month, however winds will often be from the wrong direction for exceptional warmth. Many low 20.C days, even mid 20.C in places however the theme this year so far of nothing that exceptional at the high end temperature wise but a complete absence of anything low either will yield a 'new normal Global Warming' type average. A great month if you like decent weather without it being TOO warm.

[Midlands Ice Age]

An early (for me) guess this month.. (holidays)

A warmish 15.4C and dry 47.8mms please.

 MIA

[stewfox]

15.9c 44mm

[virtualsphere]

16.1C and 57mm please

[Summer18]

15.7 and 66mm

[Summer Sun]

15.9c for me please

[Methuselah]

15.5C and 65mm please, Roger.

[Typhoon John]

14.6c please

[Roger J Smith]

15.1 and 29.4 mm -- warm first week, cool second week, near average but perhaps a brief hot spell near end of month, and largely dry. 

[syed2878]

Nothing extream in june I'm going temp 13.8C and 70mm rain.  Thanks.

[Leo97t]

15.0c and 45mm