June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

13.2c to the 4th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[reef]

18 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Maybe a cool start to the month but an exceptionally sunny one as well.

Could be one of the sunniest first halves of June on record the way it's looking.

Rostherne will be on around 50 hours after today.

Anyone got the stats for the sunniest Junes?

June is a bit of statistical anomaly here. It should be the sunniest month of the year if you go by daylight length but the 1991-2020 average is less than both May and July. It is only 23 hours more than April in fact.

There have only been five Junes with more than 225 hours of sunshine here since 1980. There have been 14 Mays and 9 Julys in the same time period.

 

[cheese]

9 minutes ago, reef said:

June is a bit of statistical anomaly here. It should be the sunniest month of the year if you go by daylight length but the 1991-2020 average is less than both May and July. It is only 23 hours more than April in fact.

There have only been five Junes with more than 225 hours of sunshine here since 1980. There have been 14 Mays and 9 Julys in the same time period.

 

I remember calculating the sunshine percentages for Church Fenton a few years ago and noticed the same thing. May, July, August & September all had around 40/41% of the total possible sunshine, whereas June only had around 38/39%. Even in terms of total sunshine hours, June only gets 6 more hours of sun than August on average despite a big daylight advantage. It’s less sunny than May and July too (May gets 210 hours of sun, June 189, July 205).

Edited June 5, 2023 by cheese

[Badgers01]

15 hours ago, cheese said:

I remember calculating the sunshine percentages for Church Fenton a few years ago and noticed the same thing. May, July, August & September all had around 40/41% of the total possible sunshine, whereas June only had around 38/39%. Even in terms of total sunshine hours, June only gets 6 more hours of sun than August on average despite a big daylight advantage. It’s less sunny than May and July too (May gets 210 hours of sun, June 189, July 205).

June gloom is real !

[Earthshine]

Looking like some very muggy later this week.  Could see the CET rise quite quickly.

[Summer Sun]

13.1c to the 5th

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 13.6C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 0mm 0% of the monthly average.

[Metwatch]

Cool but bone dry, weird combination for June so far but that looks to change from this Weekend. 

[damianslaw]

Another drop tomorrow, it has been a widely chill day for June in CET zone. From Thursday a significant warm up will help lead to a notable rise in values. We will probably be comfortably above the average in a weeks time. Can't seem to sustain colder than average for any length of time anymore. Dec brought a 2 week notably cold spell, but then a very mild spell cancelled it out.

[Don]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Another drop tomorrow, it has been a widely chill day for June in CET zone. From Thursday a significant warm up will help lead to a notable rise in values. We will probably be comfortably above the average in a weeks time. Can't seem to sustain colder than average for any length of time anymore. Dec brought a 2 week notably cold spell, but then a very mild spell cancelled it out.

Can only see June being another above or well above average month, even at this early stage.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP still near zero and while some rain does begin to fall by weekend, 16-day projection on GFS remains fairly low at about 20-25 mm on average (heavier amounts predicted in some central locations). The CET looks likely to keep rising steadily after the end of this week. It could get as high as 16 C by 22nd. 

[Relativistic]

18 hours ago, Metwatch said:

Cool but bone dry, weird combination for June so far but that looks to change from this Weekend. 

Seem to remember June 2013 beginning in a similar vein.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.2C +0.7C above average. Rainfall 0mm 0% of the monthly average.

[Don]

12 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP still near zero and while some rain does begin to fall by weekend, 16-day projection on GFS remains fairly low at about 20-25 mm on average (heavier amounts predicted in some central locations). The CET looks likely to keep rising steadily after the end of this week. It could get as high as 16 C by 22nd. 

Going by the outlook, my 15.3C is already looking like a bust.  However, time for that to change of course.  You have to wonder if the year 2023 will be as warm as 2022 as it's not that far behind currently?

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Going by the outlook, my 15.3C is already looking like a bust.  However, time for that to change of course.  You have to wonder if the year 2023 will be as warm as 2022 as it's not that far behind currently?

Very high bar to clear in July and August. 

The norm for years like 06 and 14 is to see the following year much cooler 

[Summer Sun]

13.0c to the 6th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

I think we will see CET values like 17.5 this summer in July and August, so it would fall a bit behind the 2022 pace, but December could always make up any deficit. 

[Don]

15 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I think we will see CET values like 17.5 this summer in July and August, so it would fall a bit behind the 2022 pace, but December could always make up any deficit. 

Yes, it could well be a close call!

[damianslaw]

Suspect we have bottomed out with the CET, a rapid rise in the days ahead. Had the last 3 weeks coincided with the start of June then a below average month most likely, I believe the last 3 weeks have been below average, something I don't think has happened in a long time.

[Don]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Suspect we have bottomed out with the CET, a rapid rise in the days ahead. Had the last 3 weeks coincided with the start of June then a below average month most likely, I believe the last 3 weeks have been below average, something I don't think has happened in a long time.

Yes and with a strong El Nino looking like an increasing possibility, 2023 will likely go down as another very warm year, the norm these days!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 13.2C +0.6C above average. Rainfall 0mm 0% of the monthly average.

[reef]

26 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield still at 13.2C +0.6C above average. Rainfall 0mm 0% of the monthly average.

11.4C (-1.9C) to the 7th here nearer to the coast. The mean maximum is 14.2C, a whopping 3.5C below average.

[Frigid]

Cue the exponential rise in CET.. we see it every month and it's getting boring now. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see it near 17C in two weeks. 

[Met.]

A very cold start to June in Sheffield (using official Met Office numbers).

Mean max 16.2°C, mean min 8.8°C, mean temp 12.5°C which is 2.3°C below average.

[Summer Sun]

13.2c to the 7th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average