June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Frigid]

9 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Unbelievably my 17.2°C guess could be in for a chance here do I go for the big 20°C next month though?...

You might be too low 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16C +2.8C above normal. Rain unchanged.

[damianslaw]

22 hours ago, Don said:

Looking at the current ENSO conditions, I fear another December 2015 could be on the way this year.... 

Ah please no repeat, worse month I've ever experienced, flooding was terrible here.

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Ah please no repeat, worse month I've ever experienced, flooding was terrible here.

I sincerely hope not too!  However, this developing El Nino is looking like it may well not be the cold winter's friend!  However, as well as a Super Nino in 2015, we were also in a W-QBO, whereas as the coming winter 'should!' be in a E-QBO which may soften the blow slightly!

[Frigid]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I sincerely hope not too!  However, this developing El Nino is looking like it may well not be the cold winter's friend!  However, as well as a Super Nino in 2015, we were also in a W-QBO, whereas as the coming winter 'should!' be in a E-QBO which may soften the blow slightly!

If I see any hint of a December 2015 this year, a one way ticket to Lapland it is. 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Frigid said:

If I see any hint of a December 2015 this year, a one way ticket to Lapland it is. 

Oh yes, I already have a back up plan!

[Don]

23 hours ago, Frigid said:

I don't even wanna look at my 14.4C guess anymore 

Oops!

[Scorcher]

169 hours of sunshine here in the first half of the month- truly exceptional!

Average max temp of 23.5C. One of the best starts to summer (probably the best) in my lifetime.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.3C +3.0C above normal. Rainfall 5mm 6.5% of the monthly average.

Should get some rain over the weekend possibly some Thunder rain Sunday we shall see.

[Mapantz]

18.1°C mean here.

Average max of 24.7°C.

Sunshine total will be over 180 hours after today.

[Summer Sun]

16.1c to the 15th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

No records set on 15th (25.8, 18.5, 11.2) although the max is the highest value since the record value of 27.1 in 1896. That was formerly 25.2 in 1986.

Last year on today's date, the max was 25.7 and on the 17th it was 28.2 C. 

EWP projections are up again on today's guidance, around 50-60 mm is indicated for the month (current value around 9 mm). Also not quite as warm without signs of plume on 12z GFS, 16.8 looks close to final value.

[reef]

8 hours ago, Mapantz said:

18.1°C mean here.

Average max of 24.7°C.

Sunshine total will be over 180 hours after today.

A mean of 13.5C here and an average max of 17.6C. Catching up on the sunshine though, up to 147 hours now.

[cheese]

10 minutes ago, reef said:

A mean of 13.5C here and an average max of 17.6C. Catching up on the sunshine though, up to 147 hours now.

Average max of 22.4C here. 

Edited June 16, 2023 by cheese

[BruenSryan]

On 14/06/2023 at 15:22, richie3846 said:

We're seeing more spells like this pop up out of the blue and without perfect conditions for the highest temperatures. For example, many areas have had downpours the last few days, so that rules out dry ground as a prerequisite. Also one of the days was quite cloudy and very humid. Even with those factors we have seen this record breaking spell, with new date records set for the UK on at least 3 days I believe. 

Another one... the 7-day CET mean max for 9th-15th June 2023 was 26.6C. Only 3 other June weeks since 1878 have been as warm or warmer than this - late June 1878, late May/early June 1947 (phenomenal spell) and of course the exceptional late June 1976. (Late June/early July 2018 also achieved this technically speaking)

Not that unusual to have a 26.6C in July but in June, very remarkable and the first half too. Only the 1947 spell has achieved that in the CET max record since 1878.

Edited June 16, 2023 by BruenSryan

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.5C +3.1C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[damianslaw]

Mid way through June and certainly a very warm first half despite a chilly start, as confirmed above one of the warmest weeks on record just gone for this stage in June. I didn't see it coming especially given we didn't see record warm uppers. 

Where are we heading, above average rest of the month comfortably so, but at this range no June 76 on the cards, not to say we won't see high 20s or low 30s before month end again, but I suspect such temps will be far less widespread and reserved mainly for SE.

June 2023 will end up with a value more in line with a good July. Whether we hit the 17s is the question. What if June ends up warmest month of the year? Has that ever happened before? Dec can be the coldest month so I guess there may be instances. Answers please. 

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by damianslaw

[richie3846]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mid way through June and certainly a very warm first half despite a chilly start, as confirmed above one of the warmest weeks on record just gone for this stage in June. I didn't see it coming especially given we didn't see record warm uppers. 

Where are we heading, above average rest of the month comfortably so, but at this range no June 76 on the cards, not to say we won't see high 20s or low 30s before month end again, but I suspect such temps will be far less widespread and reserved mainly for SE.

June 2023 will end up with a value more in line with a good July. Whether we hit the 17s is the question. What if June ends up warmest month of the year? Has that ever happened before? Dec can be the coldest month so I guess there may be instances. Answers please. 

 

I think what we lose in daytime heat this week, we'll gain at night. I feel it's feasible for the value to gradually rise over the coming week, especially if areas miss the showers and end up on the warm side. 25/26c seems feasible for some spots at times over the weekend and into next week. Even with some showers, most places now have a dry soil, which a few showers rarely impact unless particularly heavy and prolonged. 

My personal view is that everything is still on the table, as this week coming is unlikely to reduce the current running total, and may even increase it modestly. A few hot days later in the month may then be enough to bring it up to 1976 standards. 

[Metwatch]

31 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mid way through June and certainly a very warm first half despite a chilly start, as confirmed above one of the warmest weeks on record just gone for this stage in June. I didn't see it coming especially given we didn't see record warm uppers. 

Where are we heading, above average rest of the month comfortably so, but at this range no June 76 on the cards, not to say we won't see high 20s or low 30s before month end again, but I suspect such temps will be far less widespread and reserved mainly for SE.

June 2023 will end up with a value more in line with a good July. Whether we hit the 17s is the question. What if June ends up warmest month of the year? Has that ever happened before? Dec can be the coldest month so I guess there may be instances. Answers please. 

 

June 1676, 1785, 1786, 1798, 1804, 1822, 1846, 1858, 1896, 1920, 1940, 1950, 1960, 1966, 1970, (1993 very close June CET 15.0 July CET 15.1C), looks like that is all the cases when June was either joint or the warmest month of the year based on CET. 

Edit: So June 1920, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 were all the warmest CET months of that year with 1910 and 1930 cooler than august, but warmer than July, interesting pattern

Edited June 17, 2023 by Metwatch

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

June 1676, 1785, 1786, 1798, 1804, 1822, 1846, 1858, 1886, 1920, 1940, 1950, 1960, 1966, 1970, (1993 very close June CET 15.0 July CET 15.1C), looks that is all the cases when June was either joint or the warmest month of the year based on CET. 

Edit: So June 1920, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 were all the warmest CET months of that year with 1910 and 1930 cooler than august, but warmer than July, interesting pattern

Thanks. Over 50 years since it happened. What a pattern all the 0's! 1920, 40, 50, 60, 70! 

[summer blizzard]

1886 is an error.

1920 was just a horrific summer, Even June was not really warm.

Surprising how often it's happened with 16C being a fairly low bar (bar 1920 and 1966).

[Metwatch]

2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

1886 is an error.

1920 was just a horrific summer, Even June was not really warm.

Surprising how often it's happened with 16C being a fairly low bar (bar 1920 and 1966).

Thanks for spotting, it was 1896 which had joint warmest CET June and July with 16.2C.

[Summer Sun]

16.3c to the 16th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Sun Chaser]

I can totally see the June record going. With such a warm Atlantic and with maxima still looking pretty good, any cloud brought by such a westerly setup will do well to keep the heat in at night and keep minima up, which of course significantly affects the daily mean. Not great news for warm night haters but it will make for an interesting battle to watch!

[richie3846]

9 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

I can totally see the June record going. With such a warm Atlantic and with maxima still looking pretty good, any cloud brought by such a westerly setup will do well to keep the heat in at night and keep minima up, which of course significantly affects the daily mean. Not great news for warm night haters but it will make for an interesting battle to watch!

I didn't even think about the sea temperatures when I wrote earlier. Yet another factor in the favour of an exceptionally warm June.