June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.8C +2.7C above normal. Rainfall 5mm 6.5% of the monthly average.

Temperatures next week look to be in very warm category and not the hot to very hot.

Have to keep an eye on some very hot air which gets very close to us bringing the possibly of 38C or more degrees once again.

[Roger J Smith]

13th June set new daily CET records for max (27.5) and mean (20.9). Should be noted that max data start 1878 so we don't know what the 1818 value was (mean daily 20.5 1818 was broken, 1989 was 20.4). Previous max record of 26.1 was in 1897 (down from 26.4 in CET legacy). 

Today we may include a high minimum for the first time in this current warm spell as the records are lower than previous days which did not see records broken. All three records will perhaps be gone from 14th as they are all quite weak (mean is only 19.4 from 1814). 

[Don]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.8c to the 13th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

Wow, the CET is rocketing!!

[damianslaw]

Are we seeing our June equivalent of Dec 15! Super warm!

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Wow, the CET is rocketing!!

Don I’ve gotta confer, when I submitted 16.2c I thought on the 1st June I’ve made a boo boo in this, but now lol, it may surpass my guess the way it’s going

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Are we seeing our June equivalent of Dec 15! Super warm!

I think June 1846 is out of reach but the CET should continue rising through next week. Maxima still pretty high but minima holding up in humid conditions.

That may change though if we get persistent bands of rain stalling in places suppressing temps.

The likes of Armagh and Dublin though I think will smash long existing records for June. Here in the east June got off to a very cool start but western areas saw clear skies and temps above average.

So western areas I think will at least see extreme anomalies come the end of the month unless there is a dramatic change.

Either way it'll be a notable month. If we can squeeze a plume in by the end of the month I think we could surpass 1976 in terms of CET.

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think June 1846 is out of reach but the CET should continue rising through next week. Maxima still pretty high but minima holding up in humid conditions.

That may change though if we get persistent bands of rain stalling in places suppressing temps.

The likes of Armagh and Dublin though I think will smash long existing records for June. Here in the east June got off to a very cool start but western areas saw clear skies and temps above average.

So western areas I think will at least see extreme anomalies come the end of the month unless there is a dramatic change.

Either way it'll be a notable month. If we can squeeze a plume in by the end of the month I think we could surpass 1976 in terms of CET.

Yes expect west half of UK to be in deep red at least 3 degrees above June mean.

The rainfall stats will make interesting viewing, patchwork quilt springs to mind!

Edited June 14, 2023 by damianslaw

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes expect west half of UK to be in deep red at least 3 degrees above June mean.

The rainfall stats will make interesting viewing, patchwork quilt springs to mind!

Well here the rainfall for the month is zero! Though Sunday night should see some rainfall and I think next week could be very wet.

Alternatively most of the rain could hang back west of here though I think this is looking less likely based on the output of today.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Quicksilver1989

[Don]

1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Don I’ve gotta confer, when I submitted 16.2c I thought on the 1st June I’ve made a boo boo in this, but now lol, it may surpass my guess the way it’s going

Well, my 15.3C guess was dead in the water long ago lol!! 

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Are we seeing our June equivalent of Dec 15! Super warm!

Looking at the current ENSO conditions, I fear another December 2015 could be on the way this year.... 

[Frigid]

25 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, my 15.3C guess was dead in the water long ago lol!! 

I don't even wanna look at my 14.4C guess anymore 

[Frigid]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Are we seeing our June equivalent of Dec 15! Super warm!

If the first 10 days were anything like June 2021, then yes this month would blow 1976 out of the water and come close to June 1846. 

Dec 15 had an anomaly of +5.1C against 61/90, so if a similar anomaly occurred in June.. well the CET would be 19.2C which sounds fictional. 

[Roger J Smith]

18z GFS estimates for running CET ... 13_ 15.8 and ...

 

14 _ 16.2

15 _ 16.5

16 _ 16.7

17 _ 16.9

18 _ 17.0

19 _ 17.1

20 _ 17.1

21 _ 17.1

22 _ 17.2

23 _ 17.2

24 _ 17.3

25 _ 17.2

26 _ 17.2

27 _ 17.1

28 _ 17.1

29 _ 17.0

30 _ 17.0

Looks like 1846 (18.2) and 1676 (18.0) are safe but 1826 (17.3) or 1822 (17.1) may need to move over if above is too conservative. Notably cooler after 24 June on 18z GFS and starts to drag running mean down.

[Man With Beard]

9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

18z GFS estimates for running CET ... 13_ 15.8 and ...

 

14 _ 16.2

15 _ 16.5

16 _ 16.7

17 _ 16.9

18 _ 17.0

19 _ 17.1

20 _ 17.1

21 _ 17.1

22 _ 17.2

23 _ 17.2

24 _ 17.3

25 _ 17.2

26 _ 17.2

27 _ 17.1

28 _ 17.1

29 _ 17.0

30 _ 17.0

Looks like 1846 (18.2) and 1676 (18.0) are safe but 1826 (17.3) or 1822 (17.1) may need to move over if above is too conservative. Notably cooler after 24 June on 18z GFS and starts to drag running mean down.

So potentially the warmest June for 180 years, and warmer than June 1976? 

That's either remarkable or just another sign that we are living with new norms, particularly during summer time.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

So potentially the warmest June for 180 years, and warmer than June 1976? 

That's either remarkable or just another sign that we are living with new norms, particularly during summer time.

We must have a good chance now as next week looks like being warm and humid with higher minima. Shouldn't be too hard to consistently record 17.0C+ plus CET days.

The last week of June is always prime heatwave territory and with heat building to the south, another heatwave to finish the month could take us well past 1976.

 

[SummerShower]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

So potentially the warmest June for 180 years, and warmer than June 1976? 

That's either remarkable or just another sign that we are living with new norms, particularly during summer time.

And all after the first 9 days of June being below average!

[Scorcher]

22 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

And all after the first 9 days of June being below average!

1976 had an unremarkable start to the month as well. It only really got hot in the last 10 days.

I think this is why we've never been able to challenge 1846 as we haven't had a June that has sustained the heat through the month like July 2006 did for example.

[SummerShower]

4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

1976 had an unremarkable start to the month as well. It only really got hot in the last 10 days.

I think this is why we've never been able to challenge 1846 as we haven't had a June that has sustained the heat through the month like July 2006 did for example.

True, and this is why I can't think of any June's in my lifetime (or even stretching back into the middle of last century) that one would call classic.  No June's live up to the classic standards of say some Julys (83, 06, 13, 18) or Augusts (95, 03, 22), for example.

[summer blizzard]

4 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

That's either remarkable or just another sign that we are living with new norms, particularly during summer time.

Before we get too excited we should remember that we do get a string of strong summer months (in temperature at least, August 04 was a humid hellfest) from time to time. Notably, between June 03 and July 06, we saw 6 of the 11 summer months more than 1C above the 1981-2010 average. Our run of 6 of 8 by the end of this month is impressive though since Aug 20. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Summer Sun]

15.9c to the 14th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

A lower minimum for 14 June removed the chance for a new record high mean, but the max of 25.9 did remove 25.2 (1896) from the records. As the min was only 9.6, the daily mean was 17.8.

The latest EWP update is 4.5 mm with the GFS projection around 30-35 mm totals to end of month, heavier amounts are being shoved further west on today's guidance and average for Ireland looks more like 80 mm. Some heat was building up on 00z GFS run around 28th but this has been scaled down on the 06z run. CET projections will continue to oscillate between 17 and 17.5 depending on whether that plume materializes or not. 

 

 

[Earthshine]

Unbelievably my 17.2°C guess could be in for a chance here do I go for the big 20°C next month though?...

[Scorcher]

The latest GFS run this evening would blow June 1976 out of the water if it came off. High pressure building from Wednesday onwards and another heatwave developing.

[Metwatch]

On 31/05/2023 at 22:42, Metwatch said:

15.9°C and 47mm.

Rather dry in the first 7-10 days before potentially a thundery interlude arrives. Second half probably more showery / thundery but still on the warm side.

Precipitation I think will be quite localised due to downpours and storms, but as a whole country probably not too far off average. 

Mid month update to this.

Thundery period just gone happened as predicted, so it gave some fairly high rainfall totals but not to all areas. Next week could give some more rainfall but again localised. Might end up below the 47mm figure. 

The CET however is an interesting one. It is rising quite sharp with the current warmth. Into this weekend with warmer nights but maybe not as warm days, we will probably continue to see a rise. 

I think it is sensible to say that a CET for this month of at least 17°C isn't far fetched. A little off from my prediction. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Metwatch

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

A lower minimum for 14 June removed the chance for a new record high mean, but the max of 25.9 did remove 25.2 (1896) from the records. As the min was only 9.6, the daily mean was 17.8.

The latest EWP update is 4.5 mm with the GFS projection around 30-35 mm totals to end of month, heavier amounts are being shoved further west on today's guidance and average for Ireland looks more like 80 mm. Some heat was building up on 00z GFS run around 28th but this has been scaled down on the 06z run. CET projections will continue to oscillate between 17 and 17.5 depending on whether that plume materializes or not. 

 

 

Very surprised the mean for yesterday was so low- it was a cooler night but surprising the minimum came out at 9.6C. It also seemed warmer than the 25.9C across the CET area during the day.