June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[reef]

A mean of 17.5C is now required in the remaining 7 days for the month to finish on 17.0C.

It all depends on how warm the next couple of days come out at as the final few days have quite low minimums shown on the GFS.

[Scorcher]

Today should be 20C+ easily so that will reduce the required figure somewhat after today. Seems like maxima are consistently exceeding the forecasts at the moment so tomorrow could be even warmer. Tuesday could also end up warm.

[Man With Beard]

6 hours ago, SummerShower said:

I'm not sure you get the end of month corrections now.  I know before the series was updated last year it often came down by 0.2 to 0.3 degrees at the end of the month.  I suspect if the old method/version was being used it would currently stand in the low 17s, to then be corrected down!

Thanks, didn't know that! So a very good chance of 17C being breached!

[SqueakheartLW]

Up to 23rd June we are provisionally 7th compared with the top 10 Junes from 1772 to 2022 inclusive.

The anomaly value is how 2023 compares with the year mentioned so negative values mean 2023 is running behind the particular year whilst positive anomalies mean we are currently running ahead.

1846 is miles ahead of any of the other top 10 Junes at this stage and as we know 1846 goes on to finish top. We are currently tracking closest to June 1940 and 1970 which are just ahead of this year by a small margin with 1822 a little further ahead. We are closest to 1826 for a year currently behind this one

What is of most interest is how we are currently 1.222C ahead of June 1976 at this stage but that year had hot weather to close out the month so I expect 1976 to close the gap to 2023. Whether we finish ahead of or behind 1976 is the question as it looks like we are going to see very little in it, maybe even a tie by the end of the month.

[Roger J Smith]

I will track the monthly CET in two decimals for general interest. As reported it is on 16.8 now. The exact value (total 386.5) is 16.804.

A mean of 21.5 for today would leave the total at 408.0 and the average at exactly 17.00. 19.1 would leave it exactly 16.90. So to jump two spots to 17.0 will require a mean of 20.3 or higher (which is possible). Let's say it does reach 17.00, then a 19.5 day on Sunday would leave it 427.5 (25 days) and the average would then be 17.10. So to reach 17.10 over the weekend the two days must add up to the same total as 21.5 + 19.5 or 41. (20.7 and 20.3 get to the same point after 25 days, etc). 

From there with five days left, the means from 17.10 to end of month would be

(23.7 required to tie 1846 at 18.20, even 1976 did not manage that average)

18.90 required to end 17.40

18.30 required to end 17.30 and 18.36 to tie 1826 at 17.31.

17.70 required to end 17.20

17.10 required to end 17.10 and 17.16 to tie 1822 at 17.11

16.50 required to end 17.00

15.90 required to end 16.90 (15.84 ties 1976, 15.56 ties 1798)

(etc, take off 0.6 for each lower end result)

I will adjust those projections from the actual CET after 25 days, just a daily update tomorrow, that more detailed info on Monday).

[Shillitocettwo]

Who at this stage thinks July is going to hit the big 20.C?

[Shillitocettwo]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I will track the monthly CET in two decimals for general interest. As reported it is on 16.8 now. The exact value (total 386.5) is 16.804.

A mean of 21.5 for today would leave the total at 408.0 and the average at exactly 17.00. 19.1 would leave it exactly 16.90. So to jump two spots to 17.0 will require a mean of 20.3 or higher (which is possible). Let's say it does reach 17.00, then a 19.5 day on Sunday would leave it 427.5 (25 days) and the average would then be 17.10. So to reach 17.10 over the weekend the two days must add up to the same total as 21.5 + 19.5 or 41. (20.7 and 20.3 get to the same point after 25 days, etc). 

From there with five days left, the means from 17.10 to end of month would be

(23.7 required to tie 1846 at 18.20, even 1976 did not manage that average)

18.90 required to end 17.40

18.30 required to end 17.30 and 18.36 to tie 1826 at 17.31.

17.70 required to end 17.20

17.10 required to end 17.10 and 17.16 to tie 1822 at 17.11

16.50 required to end 17.00

15.90 required to end 16.90 (15.84 ties 1976, 15.56 ties 1798)

(etc, take off 0.6 for each lower end result)

I will adjust those projections from the actual CET after 25 days, just a daily update tomorrow, that more detailed info on Monday).

I think third place is strongly odds on. Despite an Atlantic influence which would under normal circumstances give a 15-16.C at this time of year the sea surface temperature anomalies are insane and until at least October IMO even westerlies will push temperatures north of 20.C by day. 

[Derecho]

If the GFS 18z comes off, the CET should finish at 17.0C

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 17.2C +3.1C above average. Rain unchanged.

[Earthshine]

12 hours ago, Shillitocettwo said:

Who at this stage thinks July is going to hit the big 20.C?

Unlikely at this stage.  We could see a return to a Nino-like pattern with low pressure to the SW again.  With extreme heat building in Iberia currently we could be in for a surprise.  I guessed a CET of 18.1°C next month since I think the first week/third will drag the mean down.

[Earthshine]

Up to a toasty 17.0C now after a balmy mean of 20.5C yesterday.

[Scorcher]

Today could be warmer than yesterday looking at the minima and maxima in the CET zone. It's been a long time since 17.0C was seen at this stage in June!

First time since the 19th century?

Edited June 25, 2023 by Scorcher

[Summer Sun]

17.0c to the 24th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Probably peak tomorrow after a very warm day today, could be on 17.1 or even 17.2. Rest of the month looks rather average, even a bit cool in northern parts, so don't be surprised to see a fall. 50/50 whether we end up above or below 17 degrees and also beat 1976.

From a Lake District perspective, the period up to the 17th was exceptional, but since and looking at the forecast the second half will go down as quite average really, helped by mild minima, and most days hitting 20 or above mark, without any appreciable warmth. 

[Derecho]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Probably peak tomorrow after a very warm day today, could be on 17.1 or even 17.2. Rest of the month looks rather average, even a bit cool in northern parts, so don't be surprised to see a fall. 50/50 whether we end up above or below 17 degrees and also beat 1976.

From a Lake District perspective, the period up to the 17th was exceptional, but since and looking at the forecast the second half will go down as quite average really, helped by mild minima, and most days hitting 20 or above mark, without any appreciable warmth. 

Hmmm I still think it's a bit above average, I've got the following rough estimates from the GFS 06z

25th: 19.6 (will likely come in higher then this - just a rough calculation)
26th: 15.8
27th: 17.3
28th: 17.9
29th: 15.1
30th: 17.5

Final CET again coming out at 17 / 17.1C

[richie3846]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Hmmm I still think it's a bit above average, I've got the following rough estimates from the GFS 06z

25th: 19.6 (will likely come in higher then this - just a rough calculation)
26th: 15.8
27th: 17.3
28th: 17.9
29th: 15.1
30th: 17.5

Final CET again coming out at 17 / 17.1C

I worked out something similar, I don't think it will drop below 17c, and if there is any mileage in extra Atlantic warmth then that may help also. Tuesday night looks very mild indeed, and no night looks particularly cool. 

[damianslaw]

21 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I worked out something similar, I don't think it will drop below 17c, and if there is any mileage in extra Atlantic warmth then that may help also. Tuesday night looks very mild indeed, and no night looks particularly cool. 

Ok, illustrates the affect of the warm atlantic, in another year, the synoptics rest of the month in late June would no doubt return quite average means, mild minima cancelling out cool maxima. Alas not this year.

Will be interesting to see what affect a cyclonic spell as forecast next weekend will do CET wise, in theory we should be looking at a below average start to July.

[richie3846]

52 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Ok, illustrates the affect of the warm atlantic, in another year, the synoptics rest of the month in late June would no doubt return quite average means, mild minima cancelling out cool maxima. Alas not this year.

Will be interesting to see what affect a cyclonic spell as forecast next weekend will do CET wise, in theory we should be looking at a below average start to July.

With the new way of measuring, comparing against the whole month average, there was a tendency in early June for people to keep referring to a below average start to the month. I did not believe this was the case, I believe it was around average when compared to the running mean, which we no longer get to see easily. July is another warming month, but less than June I expect. It may be a bit easier to figure out if the opening is truly cooler than average. I wish they brought back the running mean, it's much easier to know what is going on. 

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Probably peak tomorrow after a very warm day today, could be on 17.1 or even 17.2. Rest of the month looks rather average, even a bit cool in northern parts, so don't be surprised to see a fall. 50/50 whether we end up above or below 17 degrees and also beat 1976.

From a Lake District perspective, the period up to the 17th was exceptional, but since and looking at the forecast the second half will go down as quite average really, helped by mild minima, and most days hitting 20 or above mark, without any appreciable warmth. 

I'd be interested to see the stats for your area- for here it definitely hasn't been the case that minima have kept the average up over the past week or two.

Since the 8th only two days here have failed to reach 23C and no days have failed to reach 20C. Definitely a case for saying the maxima are more responsible for the high mean than the minima.

The average minimum across the month at my local weather station is 10.9C which no better than average really (although it is a rural station). Average max is 23.9C which is really exceptional for June.

Big exaggeration to call the 2nd half 'average' in my opinion, anywhere in England.

Edit: Keswick maxima since the 17th:

17th: 22.9C

18th: 24.1C

19th: 21.7C

20th: 20.4C

21st: 21.9C

22nd: 22.4C

23rd: 21.1C

24th: 22.3C

25th: 24C

That looks well above average to me overall for that area. Every day has been above average and several days considerably so.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Scorcher

[richie3846]

10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'd be interested to see the stats for your area- for here it definitely hasn't been the case that minima have kept the average up over the past week or two.

Since the 8th only two days here have failed to reach 23C and no days have failed to reach 20C. Definitely a case for saying the maxima are more responsible for the high mean than the minima.

The average minimum across the month at my local weather station is 10.9C which no better than average really (although it is a rural station). Average max is 23.9C which is really exceptional for June.

Big exaggeration to call the 2nd half 'average' in my opinion, anywhere in England.

Edit: Keswick maxima since the 17th:

17th: 22.9C

18th: 24.1C

19th: 21.7C

20th: 20.4C

21st: 21.9C

22nd: 22.4C

23rd: 21.1C

24th: 22.3C

25th: 24C

That looks well above average to me overall for that area. Every day has been above average and several days considerably so.

4.3c above average for Maxima

1.4c above average for Minima

Month to date CET

[Scorcher]

4 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

4.3c above average for Maxima

1.4c above average for Minima

Month to date CET

Yes and this is reflected well by Keswick:

Average max: 23.3C (truly exceptional so far north)

Average min: 10.8C

[SummerShower]

23 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'd be interested to see the stats for your area- for here it definitely hasn't been the case that minima have kept the average up over the past week or two.

Since the 8th only two days here have failed to reach 23C and no days have failed to reach 20C. Definitely a case for saying the maxima are more responsible for the high mean than the minima.

The average minimum across the month at my local weather station is 10.9C which no better than average really (although it is a rural station). Average max is 23.9C which is really exceptional for June.

Big exaggeration to call the 2nd half 'average' in my opinion, anywhere in England.

Edit: Keswick maxima since the 17th:

17th: 22.9C

18th: 24.1C

19th: 21.7C

20th: 20.4C

21st: 21.9C

22nd: 22.4C

23rd: 21.1C

24th: 22.3C

25th: 24C

That looks well above average to me overall for that area. Every day has been above average and several days considerably so.

Taking the uk as a whole, 26c has been reached or exceeded every day since the 9th somewhere in the country.  That must be notable for June.  I think every day of the month has exceeded 23C somewhere as well.  

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

Taking the uk as a whole, 26c has been reached or exceeded every day since the 9th somewhere in the country.  That must be notable for June.  I think every day of the month has exceeded 23C somewhere as well.  

Yes and without those cold nights in the first week we would have beaten 1976 easily. It's the minima that have prevented this month from being even more exceptional and possibly being the warmest on record.

[Roger J Smith]

So the 2-decimal average from 20.5 is 407.0/24 or 16.96. That makes it unlikely to reach 17.2 after today's likely result of about 19, in fact may not quite round to 17.1, as 426/25 is 17.04. Will need 19.5 or higher to reach 17.1. 

[reef]

25 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

So the 2-decimal average from 20.5 is 407.0/24 or 16.96. That makes it unlikely to reach 17.2 after today's likely result of about 19, in fact may not quite round to 17.1, as 426/25 is 17.04. Will need 19.5 or higher to reach 17.1. 

Nowhere in the CET zone had a min below 13C, it was quite a warm night. The east of the zone was in the high 20s/low 30s today too, so I think the mean figure for the 25th on tomorrow's update could well be 21C+, even taking into account it being cooler to the west. We're north of the zone and had a mean of 23.2C today.