June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[emmett garland]

15.3 and 37mm please

[noname_weather]

16.1C and 42mm

[February1978]

15.2C & 53mm please

Fine and 'mild' first part, warmer & thundery/wetter later

[Metwatch]

15.9°C and 47mm.

Rather dry in the first 7-10 days before potentially a thundery interlude arrives. Second half probably more showery / thundery but still on the warm side.

Precipitation I think will be quite localised due to downpours and storms, but as a whole country probably not too far off average. 

[davehsug]

14.8C & 52mm please.

[Mark Bayley]

15.1 please 

[Daniel*]

15C and 45mm thanks

I think there will be a lack of below average weather, but warmth somewhat moderated by E/NE’ly as we have seen this spring. Largely settled month, second half wetter and perhaps more showery. 

[Mapantz]

15.9°C / 38mm

Edited May 31, 2023 by Mapantz

[snowray]

On 20/05/2023 at 13:34, snowray said:

16c and 65mm please.

I don't normally change, but just noticed close to zero PPn in the 1st 10 days, still thinking it will be more unsettled later in the month though.

So can I keep the 16c please, but change to 46mm rainfall.

Edited May 31, 2023 by snowray

[Kentish Man]

14.2C thanks

[Roger J Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for June 2023

 

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (Order of entry) __________ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (Order of entry) _________

17.2 _ 85.0 _ Earthshine ( 7 ) _________________________ 15.4 _ 88.0 _ chilly milly ( 12 ) _______________________

16.5 _ 60.0 _ Polar Gael ( 10 ) ________________________ 15,4 _ 47.8 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 14 ) ________________

16.4 _ 31.0 _ jonboy ( 26 ) ____________________________15.4 _ 55.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 24 ) _________________________

16.3 _ 47.5 _ Reef ( L1-1 ) _____________________________15.4 _ 72.0 _ SteveB ( 30 ) ___________________________

16.2 _ 49.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 3 ) ___________________15.4 _ 31.0 _ rwtwm ( 31 ) ___________________________

16.1 _ 57.0 _ virtualsphere ( 16 ) _____________________ 15.4 _ 64.4 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 38 ) ____________

16.1 _ 42.0 _ noname_weather ( 48 ) _________________15.4 _ 50.0 _ J 10 ( 44 ) ______________________________

16.0 _ 46.0 _ snowray ( 11 ) __________________________ 15.3 _ 55.0 _ Don ( 42 ) ______________________________

16.0 _ 42.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 13 ) _____________________ 15.3 _ 37.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 47 ) ________________

15.9 _ 44.0 _ stewfox ( 15 ) ___________________________ 15.3 _ --- ---_ Walsall Wood Snow ( L1-3 ) ___________

15.9 _ --- ---_ Summer Sun ( 18 ) ______________________ 15.2 _ 60.0 _ JeffC ( 4 ) ______________________________

15.9 _ 50.0 _ seaside60 ( 40 ) _________________________ 15.2 _ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 41 ) _____________________

15.9 _ 47.0 _ Metwatch ( 50 ) _________________________ 15.2 _ 53.0 _ February 1978 ( 49 ) ___________________

15.9 _ 38.0 _ Mapantz ( 54 ) __________________________ 15.1 _ 29.4 _ Roger J Smith ( 21 ) _____________________

15.8 _ 30.0 _ sunny_vale ( 9 ) _________________________ 15.1 _ 44.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 45 ) _________

15.8 _ 43.0 _ Wold Topper ( 29 ) ______________________ 15.1 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 52 ) _____________________

15.7 _ 50.0 _ B87 ( 2 ) _________________________________ 15.0 _ 45.0 _ leo97t ( 23 ) ____________________________

15.7 _ 66.0 _ summer 18 ( 17 ) ________________________ 15.0 _ 45.0 _ daniel* ( 53 ) ___________________________

15.6 _ 70.0 _ bobd29 ( 8 ) _____________________________ 14.9 _ 39.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 33 ) _________________

15.6 _ 33.0 _ Weather Observer ( 27 ) _________________14.8 _ 75.0 _ Weather26 ( 1 ) _________________________

15.6 _ 40.0 _ The PIT ( 28 ) ____________________________ 14.8 _ 56.0 _ Stationary Front ( 34 ) __________________

15,6 _ 61.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 36 ) _______________________14.8 _ 86.0 _ Summer Blizzard ( 39 ) _________________

15.5 _ 65.0 _ Methuselah ( 19 ) _______________________ 14.8 _ 52.0 _ davehsug ( 51 ) _________________________

15.5 _ 68.0 _ Norrance ( 35 ) __________________________ 14.7 _ 64.2 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 32 ) ________________

15.5 _ 65.0 _ Moorlander ( 37 ) ________________________ 14.7 _ 69.5 mm _ average 1993-2022 _______________

_________________________________________________________14.6 _ --- --- _ Typhoon John ( 20 ) _____________________

_____________________________________________________________14.6 _ 70.5 mm _ average 1991-2020 _______________

_________________________________________________________ 14.4 _ 34.0 _ Summer Shower ( 5 ) ___________________

_________________________________________________________ 14.4 _ 65.0 _ Frigid ( 25 ) ______________________________

__________________________________________________________ 14.4 _ 66.3 mm _ average 1981-2010 ______________

__________________________________________________________ 14.3 _ 44.0 _ Mulzy ( 46 ) _____________________________

__________________________________________________________ 14.3 _ 66.6 mm _ average of all data 1659 (CET) 1766 (EWP) -2022

__________________________________________________________ 14.2 _ --- ---_ Kentish Man ( 55 ) ________________________

__________________________________________________________ 14.1 _ 55.0 _ Neil N ( 6 ) ________________________________

__________________________________________________________ 13.9 _ 33.0 _ SLEETY ( L1-2 ) ____________________________

__________________________________________________________ 13.8 _ 70.0 _ syed2878 ( 22 ) ____________________________

15.4 _ 50.0 _ consensus ________________________________ 13.7 _ 27.4 _ Godber1 ( 43 ) ______________________________

 

Consensus (median) of 55 on-time forecasts, plus 3 late by one day, 58 total __ 15.4 C

 

============================= [] =========================

 

EWP forecasts in order

 

88_cm .. 86_sb .. 85_Earth .. 75_wx26 .. 72_Ste .. 70.5_91-20 .. 70_bobd, syed ...

69.5_93-22 .. 68_Norr .. 66.6_all data .. 66.3_81-10 .. 66_sum18 .. 65_Meth, Frig, Moor .. 

64.4_pSL .. 64.2_KW .. 61_MrM .. 60_Jeff, PG .. 57_virt .. 56_SF .. 55_NN, DR(S), Don ..

53_Feb78 .. 52_dave .. 50_B87,sea, J10 .. 49 dww .. 47.8_MIA .. 47.5_Reef ^ .. 47_metw .. 46_snow ..

45_leo, dan*.. 44_stew, IRem, Mul .. 43_WT .. 42_shil, non .. 40_PIT .. 39_Feb91 ..

38_Map .. 37_EG .. 34_SumSh .. 33_WxObs, SLE ^ .. 31_jon, rwtwm .. 30_sv .. 29.4_RJS .. 27.4_godb

________________

Consensus of 50 on-time forecasts and two so far one day late ( ^ ), 52 total,  50.0 mm

_______________________________________

<<< == FORECASTS CAN BE SUBMITTED TO END OF SATURDAY 3rd with increasing late penalties. == >>>

Edited June 2, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[reef]

A bit late, but a warm and dry one.

16.3C and 47.5mm.

Edited June 1, 2023 by reef

[SLEETY]

13.9 c 33mm

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

If I'm not too late I'll go for 15.3c please.

[Roger J Smith]

 

1981-2010 Daily CET averages and running CET, with extreme values 1772 to 2022

Temperature values from v2.0, 1981-2010 daily values are generally 0.1 lower than CET legacy.

A few record values are different, notably 18-19 June 2005 were boosted by about 1.0 C and

that resulted in 19 June 2005 replacing 3 June 1947 as warmest June day (CET mean temp).

 

Date __ CET _ cum CET __ MAX _____ MIN ________________ Running CET extremes

01 ____ 13.4 __ 13.4 ___ 20.9 (1781,1947) _ 7.7 (1802&1962) __20.9 (1781,1947) __ 7.7 (1802,1962)

02 ____ 13.7 __ 13.6 ___ 22.3 (1947) __ 7.4 (1991) ________ 21.6 (1947) __ 8.3 (1802, 1975)

03 ____ 13.3 __ 13.5 ___ 22.9 (1947) __ 7.9 (1773) ________ 22.0 (1947) __ 8.3 (1975)

04 ____ 13.1 __ 13.4 ___ 20.2 (1804, 1982) _ 8.0 (1991) ____ 21.2 (1947) __ 8.5 (1975)

05 ____ 13.2 __ 13.3 ___ 21.2 (1982) __ 8.1 (1991) ________ 19.6 (1947) __ 8.5 (1991)

06 ____ 13.6 __ 13.4 ___ 22.4 (1950) __ 8.3 (1909) ________ 19.4 (1982) __ 9.0 (1989, 1991)

07 ____ 13.9 __ 13.5 ___ 21.6 (1846) __ 8.6 (1814) ________ 19.1 (1982) __ 9.4 (1989, 1991)

08 ____ 13.8 __ 13.5 ___ 20.2 (1940) __ 8.2 (1881) _________19.0 (1982) __ 9.4 (1989)

09 ____ 13.9 __ 13.5 ___ 20.9 (1970) __ 7.3 (1816) ________ 18.9 (1982) __ 9.7 (1989)

10 ____ 14.2 __ 13.6 ___ 21.5 (1970) __ 8.2 (1821) ________ 18.6 (1982) _ 10.2 (1991)

11 ____ 13.5 __ 13.6 ___ 21.0 (1970) __ 8.0 (1777) ________ 18.4 (1822) _ 10.3 (1991)

12 ____ 13.8 __ 13.6 ___ 20.8 (2006) __ 8.6 (1841) ________ 18.4 (1846) _ 10.4 (1909, 1916)

13 ____ 13.9 __ 13.6 ___ 20.5 (1818) __ 8.6 (1801) ________ 18.5 (1846) _ 10.4 (1916)

14 ____ 14.3 __ 13.7 ___ 19.4 (1814) __ 8.3 (1903) ________ 18.5 (1846) _ 10.4 (1916)

15 ____ 14.1 __ 13.7 ___ 22.8 (1858) __ 8.1 (1850) ________ 18.6 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

16 ____ 14.7 __ 13.8 ___20.7 (1858,1896) _ 9.7 (1869) _____ 18.7 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

17 ____ 14.9 __ 13.8 ___ 21.3 (1917) __ 9.1 (1928) ________ 18.8 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

18 ____ 14.8 __ 13.9 ___ 22.2 (2005) __ 8.1 (1855) ________ 18.9 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

19 ____ 15.1 __ 14.0 ___ 23.2 (2005) __ 7.3 (1795) ________ 19.0 (1846) _ 10.8 (1916)

20 ____ 15.0 __ 14.0 ___ 21.7 (1846) _ 9.0 (1795&1964) ____ 19.1 (1846) _ 10.8 (1916) (note: 10.9 1991)

21 ____ 14.3 __ 14.0 ___ 22.7 (1817) __ 9.3 (1903) ________ 19.1 (1846) _ 10.9 (1916)

22 ____ 14.5 __ 14.0 ___ 22.3 (1941) __ 9.0 (1823) ________ 19.2 (1846) _ 11.0 (1916)

23 ____ 14.7 __ 14.1 ___ 21.8 (1935) __ 9.4 (1823) ________ 19.0 (1846) _ 11.2 (1916)

24 ____ 14.8 __ 14.1 ___ 22.1 (1935) __10.1 (1784)________ 18.8 (1846) _ 11.3 (1991) (note: 11.4 1916)

25 ____ 15.2 __ 14.1 ___ 22.6 (2020) __ 8.7 (1835) ________ 18.6 (1846) _ 11.5 (1916,1991)

26 ____ 15.3 __ 14.2 ___ 22.2 (1976) __ 9.7 (1835) ________ 18.5 (1846) _ 11.5 (1916)

27 ____ 15.4 __ 14.2 ___ 22.8 (1826) _10.3 (1835,1862,1981) _18.4 (1846) _ 11.6 (1916,1991)

28 ____ 15.5 __ 14.3 ___ 22.5 (1976) __ 9.4 (1812) ________ 18.3 (1846) _ 11.7 (1909,1916,1991)

29 ____ 15.9 __ 14.3 ___ 22.3 (1976) __ 9.7 (1839) ________ 18.3 (1846) _ 11.8 (1909,16,72,91)

30 ____ 15.7 __ 14.4 ___ 22.0 (1976) __ 9.1 (1839) ________ 18.2 (1846) _ 11.8 (1909,16,72)*

_____________________________________________________________________

* 11.5 before daily data began in 1675, that month may have had other earlier lower values than shown here. 

* 11.79 1909 is the lowest of these in two decimals, 1916 was 11.80 and 1972 was 11.81. (29th 11.75 1909,16)

(warm running means from 1846, data same in CET legacy and v2.0)

______________________________________________________________________

==================================================================

1991-2020 CET daily averages, and running CET averages

Like 1981-2010 many of these values are 0.1 lower than CET legacy values although about one third were unchanged; the trend of dropping June temps from CET legacy to v2.0 (now v2.0.1.0) was somewhat reversed in both 2005 and after 2016 with a general increase of about 0.1 although some values in 2005 were adjusted more than others. The value on 30th of 14.6 is from 14.63 rounded down, previously it was 14.7 from 14.71. (means of running daily CET do not exactly match means of monthly averages due to rounding differences but those are quite small, months 1991-2020 average 14.64.)

01 __ 13.7 __ 13.7 _______ 11 __ 13.8 __ 13.8 _______ 21 __ 14.8 __ 14.2 _______

02 __ 14.1 __ 13.9 _______ 12 __ 14.0 __ 13.8 _______ 22 __ 14.6 __ 14.3 _______

03 __ 13.4 __ 13.7 _______ 13 __ 14.1 __ 13.8 _______ 23 __ 15.2 __ 14.3 _______

04 __ 13.2 __ 13.6 _______ 14 __ 14.4 __ 13.9 _______ 24 __ 15.3 __ 14.3 _______

05 __ 13.3 __ 13.5 _______ 15 __ 14.4 __ 13.9 _______ 25 __ 15.6 __ 14.4 _______

06 __ 13.9 __ 13.6 _______ 16 __ 14.8 __ 14.0 _______ 26 __ 15.8 __ 14.4 _______

07 __ 14.1 __ 13.7 _______ 17 __ 15.1 __ 14.0 _______ 27 __ 16.0 __ 14.5 _______

08 __ 14.0 __ 13.7 _______ 18 __ 15.0 __ 14.1 _______ 28 __ 15.7 __ 14.5 _______

09 __ 14.0 __ 13.7 _______ 19 __ 15.4 __ 14.2 _______ 29 __ 15.9 __ 14.6 _______

10 __ 14.3 __ 13.8 _______ 20 __ 15.1 __ 14.2 _______ 30 __ 16.0 __ 14.6 _______

=============================================

[Summer Sun]

12.8c to the 1st

1.3c below the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

According to GFS the EWP (probably zero so far) will start out very slowly and build up to perhaps 10-15 mm by 18th. 

The CET will run 11-13 C for several days and may increase gradually to reach a running mean around 14 C at some point mid-month, run to run consistency on the scale of this warming trend is not good. 

[Summer Sun]

13.2c to the 2nd

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

Current temp at Jan Mayen Island (northeast of Iceland) is 2 C. 

2 June max near Tel Aviv Israel was 42C, that superheated air went south today, closer to normal low 30s C. 

Satellite imagery showing a lot of heavy thunderstorms in parts of Spain, south of France and northern Italy. 

... and a heat wave building over my part of the world (inland western US and Canada).

Current GFS guidance shows EWP reaching 30-40 mm by 19th. Rain to begin in stages after seven more dry days. 

Would say the temp guidance indicates CET of 15.5 by 13th and if anything that might drop a bit by 19th in a cooler mid-month interval. All forecasts have a route to fulfillment it would seem depending on events after 20th. 

[damianslaw]

A rare cool start to a month. Will see a climb in coming days but quite large diurnal returns until we pull in warmer uppers in a few days time. Mind we've seen cold starts turn into very mild second halves in both Dec and March. 

[Summer Sun]

13.2c to the 3rd

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[Scorcher]

Maybe a cool start to the month but an exceptionally sunny one as well.

Could be one of the sunniest first halves of June on record the way it's looking.

Rostherne will be on around 50 hours after today.

Anyone got the stats for the sunniest Junes?

Edited June 4, 2023 by Scorcher

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Maybe a cool start to the month but an exceptionally sunny one as well.

Could be one of the sunniest first halves of June on record the way it's looking.

Rostherne will be on around 50 hours after today.

Anyone got the stats for the sunniest Junes?

June 1957 is a standout.

Pembroke: 326hrs

Chichester: 322hrs

Plymouth: 308hrs

Birmingham: 291hrs

Manchester Airport: 285hrs

================

June 1960 may surprise some people, Bidston Observatory on the Wirral recorded 298.8hrs

June 1969 was another one, Coventry recorded 256hrs, 253hrs at Manchester Airport

In June 1925, Torquay recorded 349.2hrs, in June 1921, it was 303.9hrs

 

[Scorcher]

23 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

June 1957 is a standout.

Pembroke: 326hrs

Chichester: 322hrs

Plymouth: 308hrs

Birmingham: 291hrs

Manchester Airport: 285hrs

================

June 1960 may surprise some people, Bidston Observatory on the Wirral recorded 298.8hrs

June 1969 was another one, Coventry recorded 256hrs, 253hrs at Manchester Airport

In June 1925, Torquay recorded 349.2hrs, in June 1921, it was 303.9hrs

 

Thanks- 285 hours is very impressive for an inland location. On course for something similar if things continue as they are.

[damianslaw]

Great for solar power but not wind power.

CET should rise a fair bit this week as we pull in warmer uppers, minima will rise more.

Edited June 4, 2023 by damianslaw