Summer 2023 Maximum Temperature - HeatWatch

[Sun Chaser]

On 16/06/2023 at 00:06, Frigid said:

2017 was the last year we failed to record 30C, even though the first half was often very warm. In contrast, Summers 2007-2012 didn't record any day < 30C.. what a shambles that must've been for summer lovers. 

2017 was actually our first time recording 30C since 2006 weirdly enough. Set the theme for the years following as 30c has been reached here every year since then except 2019!

[damianslaw]

30 is a very high temp for here, though has become more common recently. Definately saw it in 2015, 2018 and last year. We nearly made it last Monday. Possibly 2020 and 2021. Not sure about 2019, doubt it in 2016 and 2017.

Last July brought all time records Lake District, widely 33-35 degrees.

[cheese]

9 hours ago, plymsunshine said:

2017 was actually our first time recording 30C since 2006 weirdly enough. Set the theme for the years following as 30c has been reached here every year since then except 2019!

Really? That’s interesting given how widespread the heat was in July 2019, we reached 35C here. But I suppose it’s not unusual for Devon & Cornwall to miss out on heatwaves. 

Edited June 18, 2023 by cheese

[Sun Chaser]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

Really? That’s interesting given how widespread the heat was in July 2019, we reached 35C here. But I suppose it’s not unusual for Devon & Cornwall to miss out on heatwaves. 

Unfortunately we had a run of years where every single time there was a plume we just missed out on the proper heat! 25th July 2019 only managed 25.1c here but overall July 2019 was a pretty nice month so I can't really complain.

[damianslaw]

This is the thread for monitoring potential highest max of the year.. well that was the intention, but suspect lost within the model, summer chat and regional threads.

Anyhow today could be the warmest day of the year so far, touch and go, current max 30.5 degrees Heathrow.

Will depend on how quick the cold front marches in, could be some high level cloud by late afternoon associated with it.

I expect we will fall just short. but impressive to be recording temps above 30 degrees in what are not especially warm uppers, no major plume etc. Indicative of how warm the base state is this summer, suspect ground level temps a good 2-3 degrees above normal values time of year aided by the warm SST's and recent very warm dry conditions. 

[Metwatch]

 

 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Metwatch said:

 

 

Gosh quite surprised it went this high. That Coningsby seems a unique place, gave highest temp ever, being as far north as it is.

Edited June 25, 2023 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

As discussed there are two threads on the go about predicting this summer's maximum temperature. I just updated this table of forecasts made on the other thread. In a day or two I will have a bit more time (contest duties on 1st-3rd) and will look through this thread, if I find separate forecasts made by different people than these suspects, I will attempt to merge the two and post the results here as well as there. 

Also if you want to enter this specific contest and you only gave a partial set of these required elements, you can upgrade your forecast if you wish to enter. With no date or location I can't really score just a temperature prediction. 

Once again, apologies for duplicating the thread concept, I am now up to speed on what's going on (in this area at least, various other things have me totally baffled) ...

 

SOME FORECASTS by NW MEMBERS for SUMMER 2023 MAX TEMP in UK

 

FORECASTER ______________ MAX 2023 _____ DATE ____ LOCATION

Ross90 ____________________39.7 ___________04 Aug ____ Cambridge

Roger J Smith _____________ 38.2 ___________07 Aug ____ Northolt

Polar Gael ________________ 37.7 ___________16 Jul _____ Heathrow

Don _______________________37.5 ___________ 31 Jul _____ Heathrow

Methuselah _______________ 37.2 ___________28 Jul _____ Cambridge

sunny_vale ________________ 37.1 ___________10 Aug ____Heathrow

damianslaw _______________ 37.0 ___________22 Jul _____ Heathrow

Snowy L ___________________ 36.8 ___________31 Jul _____ Cambridge

B87 ________________________36.4 ___________03 Aug ____ St James Park London

The Tall Weatherman _____ 36.2 ___________24 Jul ______ Cambridge

Kirkcaldy Weather ________ 35.9 ___________ 05 Aug _____Cambourne

Emmett Garland __________ 35.7 ___________29 Jul _____ Writtle (Essex)

chilly milly _________________35.4 ___________ 09 Aug ____ Cambridge 

Metwatch _________________ 35.3 ___________ 26 Jul _____ Northolt

summer blizzard __________34.9 ___________ 30 Jun _____Heathrow

virtualsphere _____________ 34.3 ___________ 30 Jul _____ Worcester

bobd29 ___________________ 33.6 ___________ 19 Jul _____ Northolt

NeilN _____________________ 33.4 ___________ 18 Aug ____ Pershore

Summer Shower _________ 32.4 ___________ 09 Aug ____ Northolt

Frigid _____________________ 32.3 ___________ 24 Jun ____ Northolt

__________________________________________

(note this table was just created but the forecasts in the table were made in early June or even late May, with a couple of exceptions ... FAQ, you cannot back-enter June dates now unless you already posted them with a time stamped post entry.)

 

[MattStoke]

On 18/06/2023 at 13:41, Summer8906 said:

Not sure 30C was ever exceptional in the south of England, ISTR it occurred just about every year from around 1983 onwards even in the poorer summers. ISTR 1988 and 1993 failing to do so but they were unusual.

Maybe exceptional was the wrong word but 30°C definitely seems more common now. Low 30°s used to be the absolute maximum in most summers. Now it’s a surprise if we don’t reach and exceed that a few times each summer.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Maybe exceptional was the wrong word but 30°C definitely seems more common now. Low 30°s used to be the absolute maximum in most summers. Now it’s a surprise if we don’t reach and exceed that a few times each summer.

I think 32 degrees has become the old 28 degrees, a  max temp would expect in any summer.

35 degrees is probably now the old 30 degrees, an average max in a good summer.

37 degrees in a very good summer

40 degrees in an exceptional summer

[Metwatch]

On 22/05/2023 at 22:42, Metwatch said:

I think 34.8C mid to end of July in one of the stations in London, Heathrow, Northolt St James Park etc. 

Looks like we won't be having the usual mid July heat spike this year, although maybe the last few days could be a surprise similar to 2020, and see some very hot days, that seems unlikely for now. The 32.2C from last month still stands as the warmest of the year so far, which was also the highest value through all of 2021.

Highest value this July so far is 30.2C on the 7th, and if that was kept for the remainder of the month, would be the lowest July max since 2011, max of 27.4C that month.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Metwatch

[damianslaw]

This thread has died of death this July, will it be reactivated in August?

[damianslaw]

Beginning to think we've seen the highest temp of the year, with that 32.7 degrees back in June. Would be a very early max temp as well.

September can bring higher max and we do have a lot of heat bottled up over the continent, so if we do pull in a southerly might still beat it, but it feels the atlantic and heights to the north will scupper any chances. 

 

Edited August 6, 2023 by damianslaw

[damianslaw]

I'll repeat my thoughts above. Not sure the last time warmest max of year recorded so early.

I think a number of places have still to record 30 degrees.

We have only recorded a handful of days with maxes above 25 degrees, most in June apart from one day very recently.

[damianslaw]

Oh dear 2 posts in here so far this month, says it all how devoid August has been for much warmth. I can't see the 32.7 degree figure being beaten. 

[cheeky_monkey]

On 16/08/2023 at 12:56, damianslaw said:

I'll repeat my thoughts above. Not sure the last time warmest max of year recorded so early.

I think a number of places have still to record 30 degrees.

We have only recorded a handful of days with maxes above 25 degrees, most in June apart from one day very recently.

warmest day of the year so far was May 4th at 31.2c followed by May 3rd at 31.1c and June 9th also at 31.1c 

[Relativistic]

19 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

warmest day of the year so far was May 4th at 31.2c followed by May 3rd at 31.1c and June 9th also at 31.1c 

How often is your max recorded this early?

Still time for it to be broken I suppose.

[Relativistic]

34 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Oh dear 2 posts in here so far this month, says it all how devoid August has been for much warmth. I can't see the 32.7 degree figure being beaten. 

Looking more and more likely we'll get a normal annual max this year. Achieving 33+°C in September is quite difficult; last time was 2016 I think.

[cheeky_monkey]

5 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

How often is your max recorded this early?

Still time for it to be broken I suppose.

last time it happened was 2016 when the warmest day of the year was on May 7th @ 29.8c

[damianslaw]

Thought this thread would be left alone, but alas, could we yet see our hottest temp of the year?

Today hit 30 degrees, tomorrow should be a degree higher. Chance Wed and Thursday could see 32 degrees.

There is a chance of a run of 6 days at least of somewhere seeing 30 degrees.. quite unprecedented for September.

This spell just like the June one caught me out, we seem to have turned the furnace on after a lengthy cool or average period.

2023 certainly delivering on the dry sunny very warm stakes, Feb, late May- mid June, now early Sept, turning into a real mixed year.

[Relativistic]

On 26/08/2023 at 04:14, Relativistic said:

Looking more and more likely we'll get a normal annual max this year. Achieving 33+°C in September is quite difficult; last time was 2016 I think.

Did I speak too soon...?

[dryfie]

New record September max for West Freugh (near Stranraer).  Was 25.2c on 22/9/1991 and 8/9/2021.  Currently 25.4c.

[B87]

On 25/08/2023 at 20:14, Relativistic said:

Looking more and more likely we'll get a normal annual max this year. Achieving 33+°C in September is quite difficult; last time was 2016 I think.

33c is a normal max for here, on the warmest day of the year.

[Relativistic]

4 hours ago, B87 said:

33c is a normal max for here, on the warmest day of the year.

What's your current 2023 maximum?

[B87]

15 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

What's your current 2023 maximum?

31.2c on 11th June.

31.1c on 10th June.

Yesterday reached 30.0c and I expect to at least see a 33c this week. The average warmest day of the year in London reaches 33.1c.