Summer 2023 Maximum Temperature - HeatWatch

[Sunny76]

58 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

An average summer high nowadays is about 32 degrees, as you can can easily record low 30s in a poor summer.

A 24 hr southerly plume can shoot temps into mid 30s only to drop 15 or more degrees next day when replaced by a northerly airflow.

Yes, a hot period now can be 3-4c higher than it used to be 10-15 years ago.

[Methuselah]

And here's the Met. Office's latest Deep Dive: A warmer than average summer looks quite likely: 

 

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Methuselah said:

And here's the Met. Office's latest Deep Dive: A warmer than average summer looks quite likely: 

 

Warmer than average preety much the normal now. Can't recall last time a colder than average summer was predicted.

[Don]

5 hours ago, Methuselah said:

And here's the Met. Office's latest Deep Dive: A warmer than average summer looks quite likely: 

A safe bet these days as was explained in the video with the warming trend.

[Roger J Smith]

Apologies for starting a parallel thread with a contest format also, did not spot this thread (I get into a trance around end of months), may see if there is some way to blend the two together in mid-June. In any case over in that thread I predicted these values for the summer max: 

Northolt 7 Aug 38.2 C

I suspect that the new normal for UK climate is to have a scorching heat wave in all but the worst summers and this is not starting out with that end result being too obvious. 

[damianslaw]

Resurrecting this thread for discussion about potential heat, recording warm temps. The model thread is not the place for one liners oh 30 degrees shown 'x model etc, or just temp charts.

In times like these when heat is anticipated the model thread becomes clogged and any model synoptic talk is lost. Please use this thread for chat about expected temps solely. Thanks!

Edited June 8, 2023 by damianslaw

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

The weather gods have been too generous to us in recent summers giving us 35 to 40c each year. This year I think will be one of those years where the max will be less than 35c. I will guess 34.1 at Kew Gardens sometime in mid July. 

[emmett garland]

Well i think 36.6 in late July 27th to 29th

[clark3r]

Well next few days could be hot possibly 30 that is pretty hot for this early in the summer. Looks like there is going to be very dry conditions. So wouldn’t take much to get exceptional high temps next month. I will go for 37/38 next month.

[TheOgre]

I’m going for 35C at some point in July. Even though it has become more common as of late, above 37C is still extremely hot for this country and I don’t think should be expected every year. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

Well i think 36.6 in late July 27th to 29th

Would rather it was early to mid, for Wimbledon

[Man With Beard]

I will obey @damianslaw!

30C under threat daily from Saturday 10th to Saturday 17th on the latest ECM (which is often a little under). That's pretty impressive for so early in the summer and without a proper plume!

Edited June 8, 2023 by Man With Beard

[FetchCB]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I will obey @damianslaw!

30C under threat daily from Saturday 10th to Saturday 17th on the latest ECM (which is often a little under). That's pretty impressive for so early in the summer and without a proper plume!

Perhaps worryingly so 

[MattStoke]

37.8°C.

30°C+ really isn’t exceptional for the U.K. like it used to be.

[kold weather]

32.2c today is the current max, can't rule out a station that is checked later being a little higher again.

[damianslaw]

Just over 32 degrees Chertsey, current high. In many a summer that would be classed a good max to achieve. However last 10 years have seen mid 30s breached I think each year?

Keep this thread going watching high temps. 

[Frigid]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Just over 32 degrees Chertsey, current high. In many a summer that would be classed a good max to achieve. However last 10 years have seen mid 30s breached I think each year?

Keep this thread going watching high temps. 

Think 2014 and 2021 largely avoided the extreme temperatures - we only recorded a max of 27C in 2014 despite it being a record breaking year. 

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Frigid said:

Think 2014 and 2021 largely avoided the extreme temperatures - we only recorded a max of 27C in 2014 despite it being a record breaking year. 

Yeah, I think we only recorded 29C here in 2014. June and July were great months but very consistently warm without anything too hot. 

[cheese]

You know, the highest ever temperature in Leeds before 2019 was 34.4C in August 1990. It took 29 years to exceed that. Since 2019, we have exceeded the August 1990 record 4 times. 
 

It’s just crazy.

Edited June 15, 2023 by cheese

[SakuraOwl]

Hi, I'm predicting that after June 2023.
Temperatures are going to soar into the 35+
I'm even thinking that it may reach 40+

[damianslaw]

22 hours ago, Frigid said:

Think 2014 and 2021 largely avoided the extreme temperatures - we only recorded a max of 27C in 2014 despite it being a record breaking year. 

Surprised that was the max, very low it seems. July was very warm. 

[Frigid]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised that was the max, very low it seems. July was very warm. 

2017 was the last year we failed to record 30C, even though the first half was often very warm. In contrast, Summers 2007-2012 didn't record any day < 30C.. what a shambles that must've been for summer lovers. 

[Summer8906]

I suspect the hottest spell relative to normal will have been last weekend, taking advantage of dry ground after a long dry spell.

However, given July is warmer than June, I'm now going for around 34C sometime in mid-late July as the absolute max, as a brief heat burst in a generally westerly, albeit not wet in the south, month. However at +11C above normal this will be less than the +12C above normal that was achieved by the 32C temps last weekend.

Edited June 18, 2023 by Summer8906

[cheese]

On 16/06/2023 at 00:06, Frigid said:

2017 was the last year we failed to record 30C, even though the first half was often very warm. In contrast, Summers 2007-2012 didn't record any day < 30C.. what a shambles that must've been for summer lovers. 

We reached 31C in June 2011. The only year between 2007 & 2012 to exceed 30C. 

[Summer8906]

On 08/06/2023 at 21:39, MattStoke said:

37.8°C.

30°C+ really isn’t exceptional for the U.K. like it used to be.

Not sure 30C was ever exceptional in the south of England, ISTR it occurred just about every year from around 1983 onwards even in the poorer summers. ISTR 1988 and 1993 failing to do so but they were unusual.