Summer 2023 Maximum Temperature - HeatWatch

[damianslaw]

Summer meterologically speak is just around the corner, and time for this thread I feel.

Please use this thread to predict your expected max temp for the summer. 

I'm not anticipating another 40 degrees, I will go with a still very hot 37 degrees, say Heathrow sometime second half of July.

Maxes above 35 degrees now seem an almost yearly occurance. Typically second half of July or first half of August is the time when we see the yearly maxima.

This thread should in theory become a heat watch, i.e. chat away about possible maximum heat on the way and use it to record your current highest max so far.

Can someone please post current max temp achieved this year so far. 

 

 

[Sunny76]

Summer max of 33c somewhere, and probably hitting that 3 times between June and August. 

[Earthshine]

41.1C is my guess

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

41.1C is my guess

Wow, where?

[B87]

For Heathrow, I'll go with 30c in June, 35c in July and 32c in August.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I can't see 35 Celsius being reached anywhere this summer. I am going for a maximum of 34 Celsius in early July, with the remainder of the summer being largely benign.

Edited May 21, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[sunny_vale]

I'll go for 38C first half of August  isn't it crazy how once almost record-breaking temps are now a genuinely non-ridiculous prediction . . .

[SummerShower]

I don't think we will hit 40 again, as much as I loved those 2 days in July (minus the hot night though).

35 is still not normal for the UK but I wouldn't rule it out though, as long as Spain loses the current low pressure and we tap into a plume.

Let's go 35.4C on 29th July at Northolt

Edited May 21, 2023 by SummerShower

[Sunny76]

I don’t think 35c will even be reached this summer. I think it’s going to struggle to even top 32c.

[The PIT]

ue to all the water dumped into the atmosphere last year going for 40.5C with a run of high 37C to 39c end of July.

[Weather26]

I think 32.C at some point before the last week of July and that will be it since things usually start going downhill as soon as the schools break up.

Edited May 21, 2023 by Weather26

[NeilN]

I reckon 32/33c will be the max and probably late July. Have a feeling 2022 was a one off.

[chilly milly]

I'd be extremely grateful if it didn't top 30c. 25.4c would do me nicely. But in reality I suspect we'll hit the 30s.

So far our high has been 20.7c on 7th May, so I live in hope.

[damianslaw]

For a shockingly low absolute maxima 1974 produced a max 27 degrees at Stratford on Avon.

Most summers since 1940 have delivered a max at least 30 degrees. 1993 possibly last time that didn't happen.

Edited May 22, 2023 by damianslaw

[Sunny76]

6 hours ago, NeilN said:

I reckon 32/33c will be the max and probably late July. Have a feeling 2022 was a one off.

I don’t think 2022 will be repeated for a long time. Probably not for at least another 5-10 years. 

[Metwatch]

I think 34.8C mid to end of July in one of the stations in London, Heathrow, Northolt St James Park etc. 

[Sunny76]

I think the hottest period might be mid August this time. Just have a feeling , it’s going to be a late blast of heat. 
 

2023 has taken its time to warm up, so a hot spell in August wouldn’t surprise me now. 

[Greyhound81]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

For a shockingly low absolute maxima 1974 produced a max 27 degrees at Stratford on Avon.

Most summers since 1940 have delivered a max at least 30 degrees. 1993 possibly last time that didn't happen.

Was 30 degrees reached in any of the 85-88 summers? 

Edited May 23, 2023 by Greyhound81

[Weather Enthusiast91]

10 hours ago, NeilN said:

I reckon 32/33c will be the max and probably late July. Have a feeling 2022 was a one off.

Even in this warming climate, the summer of 2022 was exceptional for the UK and I personally can't see 40 Celsius being reached again for a good few years yet.

[cheeky_monkey]

13 hours ago, Greyhound81 said:

Was 30 degrees reached in any of the 85-88 summers? 

last few days of June into early July 1985 reached 30c as did the first week of August 1988

[Sunny76]

13 hours ago, Greyhound81 said:

Was 30 degrees reached in any of the 85-88 summers? 

Yeah, August 21st 1987 reached 30c. I think 32c was reached in 85, 86 and 88 at some point.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah, August 21st 1987 reached 30c. I think 32c was reached in 85, 86 and 88 at some point.

Not sure of the dates , but according to one source 30.5 was achieved in 1985 at Mepal, 32 at Rustington in 1986, 30.1 Northolt in 1987 and 30.2 in Cheltenham 1988. In 85, 87 and 88 only just. 

Looking back in the colder 1940s and 50s period, only 1 summer failed to break 30 degrees that was 1958 with 29.4 and only 4 more failed to break 32 degrees. 

[Sunny76]

Even a poor summer will see a 30c at some point. 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Even a poor summer will see a 30c at some point. 

An average summer high nowadays is about 32 degrees, as you can can easily record low 30s in a poor summer.

A 24 hr southerly plume can shoot temps into mid 30s only to drop 15 or more degrees next day when replaced by a northerly airflow.

[hillbilly]

23 hours ago, damianslaw said:

For a shockingly low absolute maxima 1974 produced a max 27 degrees at Stratford on Avon.

Most summers since 1940 have delivered a max at least 30 degrees. 1993 possibly last time that didn't happen.

Southampton gave 28 deg in 1974.

1972,1978,1980,1981 and 1993 also didnt make 30 deg,the latter being the last.