Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[Thomas Francis]

21-18 strikes/m Near Cirencester and Swindon. This can't be good at all..

 

[Andy Bown]

Looking East from Warminster above Salisbury Plain. 

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Hello, what's this that the UKV's picked up on tomorrow evening? 

 

 

 

AROME had similar on 06Z but slightly further east.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Satellite does show clouds developing as far east as Peterborgh, though hard to say how much will come of it. 

Was just about to say that. Looks like the potential has spread a tad further east.

[alexisj9]

First one batch that was to my south earlier definitely developing.

Second to my south east, so may be coming over me

[LightningLover]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

AROME had similar on 06Z but slightly further east.

Bank!!

[alexisj9]

Just now, LightningLover said:

Bank!!

What might kick of to my north west is in Dover now.

[Mapantz]

11 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Hello, what's this that the UKV's picked up on tomorrow evening? 

A red herring! 

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Was just about to say that. Looks like the potential has spread a tad further east.

The Arome showed it becoming more organized as it progresses north so while not overly exciting in the East Midlands i do wonder if uplift could aid places like Nottingham, Sheffield and Leeds in getting something beyond a 10 minute wonder. 

[Frosty hollows]

23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Looks like it is all taking off in Oxfordshire, several rumbles of thunder, wind, and heavy rain here in Wantage now.

Edit: very heavy rain!

Can hear those rumbles in the distance here! We have a few drops of rain  that's all!

[kold weather]

Decent cumulus field out there ahead of the current cells, i fully expect more will go up there in the next hour and lift into the W.Midlands as well.

Locally I'm not expecting much and I think tonight's crud will just wind up making tomorrow rather more cloudy than today instead of giving much of interest. At least it may finally end a near month lack of rain I suppose.

[Dangerous55019]

Afternoon everyone.

A very warm and sultry afternoon here in North East Wales.

But things are starting to bubble up, and it’s turning hazy as well.

Will it go bang? Only time will tell.

But good luck to everyone like me who’s wanting some storm action.

[Eagle Eye]

I did say today has the potential to go more eastwards though mainly due to gravity waves which won't be doing anything at the moment. The shortwave actually is further east than modelled is the most likely reason along with it being hotter than most models.

[VillagePlank]

9 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Looking south off of the harbour in Folkestone - popped up quickly but still don’t fancy our chances here in Kent

Indeed, infact I think deritus will affect our chances later this evening - we probably need clear skies right up until about an hour before dusk to stand any chance I reckon. Get that surface heating in!!

[summer blizzard]

Risk spreads a little eastward with time depite the NW movement so i think Birmingham is in a fantastic position. 

[BenFreeman_91]

No signs of cloud here in hot and humid south Lincolnshire!!

[CoventryWeather]

Small CU clouds, none really towering. 

Hope this evening has more potential, still several hours left! 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, VillagePlank said:

Indeed, infact I think deritus will affect our chances later this evening - we probably need clear skies right up until about an hour before dusk to stand any chance I reckon. Get that surface heating in!!

Won't really do too much really. Just need to keep the surface heating and so would rather there is something to trap it (though I think high 850's are a good sign of evening and night being hotter than expected). P.S

I've got the shirt ready for today.

[VillagePlank]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I did say today has the potential to go more eastwards though mainly due to gravity waves which won't be doing anything at the moment. The shortwave actually is further east than modelled is the most likely reason along with it being hotter than most models.

The thing is that gravity waves with respect to thunderstorms require nearby thunderstorms. There is a possibility if pulse like storms develop that they hence develop along the line of advection, but in all my time watching weather I have only ever seen this once. And even then, it was a surprise to just about everyone.

A possibility, but very rare indeed.

[alexisj9]

Just now, Eagle Eye said:

Won't really do too much really. Just need to keep the surface heating and so would rather there is something to trap it (though I think high 850's are a good sign of evening and night being hotter than expected). P.S

I've got the shirt ready for today.

The sea breeze kicked in at about three, so unlikely anymore surface heating here.

[Row w]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Won't really do too much really. Just need to keep the surface heating and so would rather there is something to trap it (though I think high 850's are a good sign of evening and night being hotter than expected). P.S

I've got the shirt ready for today.

I want one of those shirts, in Ladies of course.

[VillagePlank]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

The sea breeze kicked in at about three, so unlikely anymore surface heating here.

Sad times

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, VillagePlank said:

The thing is that gravity waves with respect to thunderstorms require nearby thunderstorms. There is a possibility if pulse like storms develop that they hence develop along the line of advection, but in all my time watching weather I have only ever seen this once. And even then, it was a surprise to just about everyone.

A possibility, but very rare indeed.

Yeah, the trouble is that storms have to hit the tropopause for them to send out gravity waves and our storms rarely get tall enough for that.

[Shane]

I really hope we get somthing today! It's looking promising.but not getting my or my lads hopes up, I said it might thunder today, he said it never thunders gets his optimistic outlook from me. He is 10 and already fed up with the lack of storms

[WeatherArc]

Bit late but this was the 06z/12pm run of the GFS today (sounding from Banbury), there is some veering with height so a marginal supercellular risk with some of these cells,especially those near Oxford. 2700 j/kg of surface based cape 

Still a few towers going up around south Birmingham, seem to be having a few issues though, might just wait for those Oxford cells to get closer. 

Cloud tops also rapidly increasing.