Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[LightningLover]

Oh, and the 18-19th July 2017 overnight event that spanned from Hampshire to East Kent!

[Harry]

WRF-NMM on board too for something decent on Sunday

[SteveB]

6 hours ago, Harry said:

UKMO HD 12z run for Sunday afternoon/evening - interesting 

 

Then again early hours on Tuesday morning for the SE

That looks like the East get all the action! I thought West was best for Sunday?

[Harry]

1 hour ago, SteveB said:

That looks like the East get all the action! I thought West was best for Sunday?

West is showing some outbreaks too. But there’s a fair bit of interchangeability between models at the moment so I wouldn’t be cancelling/making specific plans just yet is all I can say at the moment. Some much more learned than I I’m sure will provide updates nearer the time

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

West is showing some outbreaks too. But there’s a fair bit of interchangeability between models at the moment so I wouldn’t be cancelling/making specific plans just yet is all I can say at the moment. Some much more learned than I I’m sure will provide updates nearer the time

Still looking marginal for the central south once again

[CoventryWeather]

Yellow warning for storms for Sunday. Mentions large amounts of uncertainty (taking for the plume event). 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=7fbed77a-dae0-4693-8a24-12c349657221&details&referrer=app&date=2023-06-18

[Dangerous55019]

Morning all.

So just to quickly add to @CoventryWeather’s post, here’s a screenshot from the U.K. Meto App with regards to Sunday’s yellow storm warning.

Lets hope it’s a good and stormy day for us all, as I’m sure by now, even the most hardened summer sun lovers will be starting to agree that we do need some rainfall if nothing else.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

THUNDER FOG IS A THING

[NUT]

Just 1 decent dollop of rain would be nice even up here. Even if we only get 1 storm or something need the rain

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

General rule of thumb with flip-flopping near-term forecasts like Sunday’s is this:

it will end up being a clipper

[Mapantz]

16 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

General rule of thumb with flip-flopping near-term forecasts like Sunday’s is this:

it will end up being a clipper

You mean like the UKV and ECM?

 

Of course, unlikely to be exactly like that, but if it is, worth remembering that the majority of lightning (if any) will be on the eastern flank.

[CoventryWeather]

33 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

You mean like the UKV and ECM?

 

Of course, unlikely to be exactly like that, but if it is, worth remembering that the majority of lightning (if any) will be on the eastern flank.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's the wrong plume event - the one in the evening is the one that looks more likely to produce lightning than the chats above. 

Please correct me if I'm wrong. Not had a huge amount of time to look at modelling due to examinations. 

[Windblade]

Nothing stormy here for the next couple of days. Sunday MIGHT get a shower, but looking unlikely ie "not everywhere will catch one" - that always means me! I just want this disgusting heat to bugger off.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Windblade

[Sam jackson88]

12 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Nothing stormy here for the next couple of days. Sunday MIGHT get a shower, but looking unlikely ie "not everywhere will catch one" - that always means me! I just want this disgusting heat to bugger off.

Yeah I know what you mean by the heat, but we are only in June and it's only gonna get hotter but with the hot weather comes many severe storms so always a brighter side even tho we will be melting

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

THUNDER FOG IS A THING

I know. It is, it happened here the year after I moved here, a storm was approaching from France, due to cold sea and plumey air there was fog, could hear distant thunder, and see the lightning flashes in the fog. Then it got here, and we had a good storm. First Dover storm we had after moving.

Also after a storm, fog tends to build because of the hail sometimes, often seen in American storms chases. 

[alexisj9]

35 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Nothing stormy here for the next couple of days. Sunday MIGHT get a shower, but looking unlikely ie "not everywhere will catch one" - that always means me! I just want this disgusting heat to bugger off.

It's not going anywhere, gonna still be hot Monday after the Sunday storms, whoever gets them.

[Lt. Dan]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I know. It is, it happened here the year after I moved here, a storm was approaching from France, due to cold sea and plumey air there was fog, could hear distant thunder, and see the lightning flashes in the fog. Then it got here, and we had a good storm. First Dover storm we had after moving.

Also after a storm, fog tends to build because of the hail sometimes, often seen in American storms chases. 

Hail fog is impressive. Best I've experienced is after a prolific hail producing supercell passed through a town in Kansas in 2022. Visibility down to a few hundred meters with a very noticeable drop in temperature too - had to put my jumper on, in Kansas, in June 

[Windblade]

55 minutes ago, Sam jackson88 said:

Yeah I know what you mean by the heat, but we are only in June and it's only gonna get hotter but with the hot weather comes many severe storms so always a brighter side even tho we will be melting

Yeah agreed it's gonna get hotter yet - I just want a bit of a reprieve!  Usually we are the hottest place in the country for the longest and everywhere else seems to get loads of storms except us! We are lucky if we get 1 or 2.  Last year was an exception though - we had loads of storms and thunder days, so many infact I actually lost count after 17 . I was hoping for a similar setup this year but looks like the weather round here has reverted to type (three months of hot sunny weather with nary a cloud in sight ).

Edited June 16, 2023 by Windblade

[James1979]

Just now, Windblade said:

Yeah agreed it's gonna get hotter yet - I just want a bit of a reprieve!  Usually we are the hottest place in the country for the longest and everywhere else seems to get loads of storms except us! We are lucky if we get 1 or 2.  Last year was an exception though, we had loads of storms and thunder days so many I actually lost count after 17 . I was hoping for a similar setup this year but looks like the weather round here has reverted to type (three months of hot sunny weather with nary a cloud in sight ).

No rain since 9th May for me, missed all the storms by a whisker again last week, could see the anvils, the desert conditions prevail as per seemingly every year now.  Desperate for some rain/relief/God forbid some storms.  The forecast for Sunday is no storms here, guaranteed.

[Windblade]

11 minutes ago, James1979 said:

No rain since 9th May for me, missed all the storms by a whisker again last week, could see the anvils, the desert conditions prevail as per seemingly every year now.  Desperate for some rain/relief/God forbid some storms.  The forecast for Sunday is no storms here, guaranteed.

Sounds familiar. I know others are in the same boat so trying not to moan (I did get a small storm on Monday here which cooled it down nicely but since then it's been business as usual! ) .

Last year although very stormy later on at the end of summer we had three months of this desert weather starting in May and lasting til August with not one drop in between. This seems to be a re-occurring theme. I also think temperature records fell again last year and I can see that being the case again this year. Like yourself although I love storms I will very much welcome any significant rainfall to wet the ground/plants, give the wildlife a much needed drink and just cool the place down in general. 

 

 

Edited June 16, 2023 by Windblade

[Harry]

I’m hoping this weekend will be similar to the exact same weekend last year, when a glancing blow from some instability generated a huge swathe of cracking storms. There’s quite a bit of similarity between this year and last so my optimism levels are holding 

[Windblade]

Just now, Harry said:

I’m hoping this weekend will be similar to the exact same weekend last year, when a glancing blow from some instability generated a huge swathe of cracking storms. There’s quite a bit of similarity between this year and last so my optimism levels are holding 

I will go with your optimism on this one Harry! 

[Tempest]

Hello everyone

Just popped in to say that your videos are great   Especially for the likes of me who rarely get to see the action for real. Thank you for taking the time to edit and post, much appreciated

[weatherobsuk]

MWIS and EGCC METAR hinting at the possibility of a storm or two this evening for the western Pennines?

https://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EGCC

https://www.mwis.org.uk/forecasts/english-and-welsh/peak-district

 

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, Windblade said:

I will go with your optimism on this one Harry! 

I think there's a great many reasons for optimism to be honest.

Current modelling shows some very moist, humid and unstable air wafting up from the south through Saturday night and more especially through Sunday. Pressure will be falling as a secondary low forms somewhere between the Iberian peninsula and the Bay of Biscay and sweeps up from the south through Sunday evening, bring with it (based on the FAX chart) a number of troughs, as less moist air tries to punch in from the SW.

There is the potential for more than one round of thunderstorms and downpours, as a number of models are suggesting at the moment. I'm seeing signals that there could be thunderstorms/downpours on the leading edge of the humid surge, as it crosses into southern England through the early hours of Sunday, then again later as the drier air begins to sweep the humid air away into the N Sea later in the afternoon and evening. 

As we all should know by now, these are incredibly difficult events to forecast as sometimes the air is so unstable, a cow parping at an awkward angle on the edge of the North Downs could cause storms to initiate. Similarly and by far the worst case scenario, is the models have been wrongly modelling the Low (and more especially the development of the secondary low) and it tracks further east than anticipated.

As it currently stands, this is in my opinion by far Kent/Sussex's best chance for storms this year, with the potential for further heavy and thundery downpours into early next week.