Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[LightningLover]

4 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Reminds me to get the AAA batteries for the audio recorder 

I might have to go and procure some storm snacks! May be sitting on the beach for a while haha

[Cain]

Lovely and sunny here in south east wales now an quite warm 

IMG_4595.dng

[James1979]

1 hour ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

It offers a watered-down version of Arome for tomorrow, but with some absolute humdingers for the classic UK 'Supercell Alley' of Cambridgeshire up to Lincolnshire. I'm now expecting Dan Holley to go red + severe for that area!

Cambridgeshire supercell alley??? Yeah right, more like death Valley. Lucky to get a few bolts a year here.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

What is the stuff over the Midlands pushing north. This was not expected, the front is generating much further east than forecast.

Well it's definitely rain on the front, would expect that to be the air boundary, look behind that for storms I'd suggest.

[Snowyowl9]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

What is the stuff over the Midlands pushing north. This was not expected, the front is generating much further east than forecast.

Had some rain here this morning...

When I see clouds like this then I ll get very excited havn t seen any as dramatic like this this year yet..

I mean mid layer...Had the classic cumulus so far CB..

Edited June 17, 2023 by Snowyowl9

[Eagle Eye]

Current UKV run. It's been changing between west and east Kent run by run, no real trend exactly but good signs at the moment for me and the Kent people among us.

[Sprites]

I know the fractus is ready to scupper any visibility overnight  

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Current UKV run. It's been changing between west and east Kent run by run, no real trend exactly but good signs at the moment for me and the Kent people among us.

Just as long as it doesn't change to show the North sea getting the whole thing.

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Current UKV run

That's the UKMO model, EE.

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That's the UKMO model, EE.

It's the HD UKMO just been added, kinda assumed it was the UKV to be honest.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Southern Storm said:

Blasphemy

I was going to use a far stronger word, but let’s keep it dignified and use your’s

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Azazel said:

If Arome is right I might get lucky with that second push tomorrow afternoon. Couldn’t care less about the first push in the morning. Morning storms are the worst kind but I suppose beggars can’t be choosers in this part of the world.

We had a morning storm last year that formed (if memory serves) around 4 - 5am over south Kent/Sussex and it was genuinely the most electrified storm I’ve ever seen in the UK. There were vivid lightning flashes every 1 - 3 seconds at its peak. The main frustration was it kicked off out of the blue so was woken by the thunder then had to get ready to go to work during its peak. Standing at the bus stop with constant thunder rolling around was great fun  

[Mapantz]

Little to no rain is forecast here for the next 3 or 4 days. A rather boring end to a top-notch period of weather.

[alexisj9]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Little to no rain is forecast here for the next 3 or 4 days. A rather boring end to a top-notch period of weather.

I remember that storm, it was basically an arm of the MCs storm that tried to cross the channel, but changed when half way across into another system, forget the name now, but you could see it spiral like it developed into a small low, got stuck where it was. The storm was an arm of that, and yes very lively.

[DanStormUK]

39 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Had some rain here this morning...

When I see clouds like this then I ll get very excited havn t seen any as dramatic like this this year yet..

I mean mid layer...Had the classic cumulus so far CB..

Perfect clouds to have in summer.  I'm near Powys county, sun has just popped out

[Harry]

Sun out now, heat building and some first signs of instability beginning to develop in the mid-levels. Incidentally I’m going to be in Medway (C/N Kent) this evening and tomorrow so hopefully will be in a good location if any storms do fire

[LeveLUP]

Just heard thunder by Horsham again sounded to my Northeast. Probably to do with this system.

[Harry]

Well if anyone is in doubt about the instability of the atmosphere between now and tomorrow night, that should settle it for you. Doesn’t even look impressive on radar 

[LeveLUP]

6 minutes ago, Harry said:

Well if anyone is in doubt about the instability of the atmosphere between now and tomorrow night, that should settle it for you. Doesn’t even look impressive on radar 

I'm hearing an uptick in activity. The system is still developing going off the radar. 

Finally something on lightning maps

Edit: rain has started

Edited June 17, 2023 by LeveLUP

[Jamie M]

The instability is

[Ryan H]

12 minutes ago, LeveLUP said:

Just heard thunder by Horsham again sounded to my Northeast. Probably to do with this system.

I heard it too. I am thinking about the storm forming in the South East but I am surprised about it developing today.

[legritter]

Hi gang , I've been lurking , great reading the posts .Off tomorrow morning with my girl friend partner to Northumberland for 6 day coaching holiday staying near Newcastle, we're taking paka macks as i think the storms will be following us north , easy meal tonight Sausage Baps and of course Stella's but only one for me , cheers to you all .

[ChannelThunder]

Lots of AC Cas today, although it's of the chunky and messy variety. Feels very hot and ripe when the sun bursts through it. 

Some tiny, fools hope of isolated channel storms tonight, but being in a low-end CW zone has never ended with a storm for me!

[alexisj9]

24 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

The instability is

Yep, looks like something could develop absolutely anywhere.

[staplehurst]

Always good fun when subtle disturbances aloft appear at relatively short lead times - compare the difference over the eastern Channel between the 00z run (left) and the 09z run (right), highlighting some minor PVA in that area (still subject to placement error) aiding the development of the elevated thunderstorm over West Sussex.

Incidentally, there are growing hints at an arc of elevated showers/storms developing late evening onwards from Wales-Cen S Eng lifting NE through the night to reach NW Eng-Lincs by 06z Sunday - this is ahead of any developments in the Channel/SE. Not nailed on by any means, but essentially given the unstable airmass in place expect the unexpected should any smallscale disturbances occur aloft.

Edited June 17, 2023 by staplehurst