Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 minute ago, ChannelThunder said:

Models use UTC, right? So you could be an hour behind in terms of UKV's time frames vs reality? Happy to be corrected if UKV actually accounts for BST.

You’re right. Z & UTC are basically the same. So in the model 12Z/UTC would correspond to 13:00BST etc.

[alexisj9]

15 minutes ago, Cakie said:

Great location to view from 

Having a friend that used to live in Sutton in craven, if Sutton bank is the hill, that little village is below, it got very good views 

[P-M]

A thin line of convection has sprung up around Preston / Blackpool area headed roughly NE. Although not yet electrified. 

The supercell storm that hit the northeast back in 2012 started here too from a very discrete cell.  Would be amazing if something like that happened again today. There again, probably just my wishful thinking lol 

[Harsh Climate]

Am i right in thinking the later the storms start in the east the better? More diurnal heating and less chance of cloud inhibiting storm development at optimal time

Edited June 25, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[Aiden2012]

That’s work done now bring it on someone rang in sick and I was like not today not today absolutely not today

[P-M]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Am i right in thinking the later the storms start in the east the better? More diurnal heating and less chance of cloud inhibiting storm development at optimal time

I think that was the jist yeah HC.

 

Sferics detected southern Ireland now. 

 

Not sure if anyone has posted Met4Cast view of today. Link to Twitter below:

 

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by P-M

[StormLoser]

It has brightened up in Durham but the temps are nothing like the ones forecast. Guessing in the low 20s. I'd be astounded if we got anywhere near the 28 forecast by the Met Office.

Also, that front looks like it is drying and fading rapidly from the south as it traverses east.

I'm not encouraged...   

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, P-M said:

I think that was the jist yeah HC.

 

Sferics detected southern Ireland now. 

 

Not sure if anyone has posted Met4Cast view of today. Link to Twitter below:

 

 

I think all the ingredients are there for today for supercell or two in the Uk, just hope it alll doen't sweep away east too quickly

[matt brid]

1 minute ago, StormLoser said:

It has brightened up in Durham but the temps are nothing like the ones forecast. Guessing in the low 20s. I'd be astounded if we got anywhere near the 28 forecast by the Met Office.

Also, that front looks like it is drying and fading rapidly from the south as it traverses east.

I'm not encouraged...   

That will be the direction of the wind with the north sea coming into play.

It will all kick off later as tremendous heat inland away from the east coast.

Batten down the hatches

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I think all the ingredients are there for today for supercell or two in the Uk, just hope it alll doen't sweep away east too quickly

Probably a few decent thunderstorms later - but time will tell.

[P-M]

1 minute ago, StormLoser said:

It has brightened up in Durham but the temps are nothing like the ones forecast. Guessing in the low 20s. I'd be astounded if we got anywhere near the 28 forecast by the Met Office.

Also, that front looks like it is drying and fading rapidly from the south as it traverses east.

I'm not encouraged...   

It's not the active front now you should be watching.  As it engages with the warm air mass to the east it should initiate storms to form.  These aren't showing yet. 

 

Temps are higher than your prediction by the way.  26 to 29 currently in the east.  Met office link below...

 

UK temperature map - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Our temperature map shows you the latest temperature forecasts for the UK. Includes forecasts up to 5 days and observations...

 

[seabreeze86]

25c here already expecting fireworks in the next few hours 

[Sprites]

16 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Having a friend that used to live in Sutton in craven, if Sutton bank is the hill, that little village is below, it got very good views 

That's a different Sutton. 

[Mullet69]

17 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Having a friend that used to live in Sutton in craven, if Sutton bank is the hill, that little village is below, it got very good views 

Sutton-under-whitestonecliffe is the village at the foot of Sutton Bank, a few miles east of thirsk. Sutton in craven is well over Skipton way.

Sutton Bank or Garrowby Hill (between York and Driffield) would be great vantage points today.

[Allseasons-Si]

Had a bit of asparagus cloud here not long ago and just shows there is instability in the air.

 

[StormLoser]

3 minutes ago, P-M said:

It's not the active front now you should be watching.  As it engages with the warm air mass to the east it should initiate storms to form.  These aren't showing yet. 

 

Temps are higher than your prediction by the way.  26 to 29 currently in the east.  Met office link below...

 

UK temperature map - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Our temperature map shows you the latest temperature forecasts for the UK. Includes forecasts up to 5 days and observations...

 

I've checked outside reading and it is 25.5 in the shade. I guess I've been softened up by recent warm weather!

Well, thanks for the good news. I've been Kent Clipped so many times while in the south, I can't help feel pre-disappointment!

[The Tall Weatherman]

I swear the UKV just nosedived 100 miles south

[P-M]

1 minute ago, StormLoser said:

I've checked outside reading and it is 25.5 in the shade. I guess I've been softened up by recent warm weather!

Well, thanks for the good news. I've been Kent Clipped so many times while in the south, I can't help feel pre-disappointment!

Yeah me too.  Seen great storm forecasts to get nothing! 

I'm really hoping to see something decent today though but as always, the weather will do what the weather will do. 

[Scuba steve]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Had a bit of asparagus cloud here not long ago and just shows there is instability in the air.

 

Asparagus?

[StormLoser]

3 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Asparagus?

Cabbage size hail expected? 

Edited June 25, 2023 by StormLoser

[LIGHTNING ACTION]

Here it comes! sky was clear 1 hour ago.

[Norfolk Sheep]

3 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Cabbage size hail expected? 

Probably closer to Brussels sprouts 

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, Mullet69 said:

Sutton-under-whitestonecliffe is the village at the foot of Sutton Bank, a few miles east of thirsk. Sutton in craven is well over Skipton way.

Sutton Bank or Garrowby Hill (between York and Driffield) would be great vantage points today.

You can tell I don't know Yorkshire well, but it is beautiful. 

[ChannelThunder]

14 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

I swear the UKV just nosedived 100 miles south

Reckon some in Norfolk might get a surprise, albeit it an isolated one.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Probably closer to Brussels sprouts 

Processed peas

[Derbyshire_snow]

2 hours ago, Cold Winter said:

I live in Malton but work just over the other side of the moors. I’ve been caught in some really nasty storms in the past while up there.

Blakey Ridge Lion inn would be amazing views on clearest of days you can make out the power stations at Ferrybridge from up there.