Worryingly dry

[Downburst]

Take this year and Dublin Airport. Very dry and warmer than average months followed by very wet and warmer than average. This is not the same for an aquafer as relatively normal mean rainfall. It doesn't average out for reasons of run off etc. they need "constant" topping up.

[piglet]

15 minutes ago, Downburst said:

A complicated question this. In general rainfall over all of Ireland has increased 6% since the 1961 to 1990 average. But this was largely over the west. What I think is interesting is the soil temperature, the run off and the warmer air temps day and night. There is harder ground in summer and quicker run off. There is increase evaporation and more sun shine on the ground and some rainfall totals are contributed by heavier individual showers, which can run off. So one can't induce if the ground is dryer or not simply by measuring total rainfall in a gauge.

My own experience as a keen gardener all my life who knows the ground in my garden very well. Since 2012 I have had a major increase in grass browning and harder ground from April to September. I have had changes in insect types, fungus types, (some attacking clover int he lawn now due to wet winter weather perhaps and then parched late spring to date weaking the plants). All in all lots of changes in what will and will not grow. 

 

Intense rain days are increasing in the west here, (Valentia County Kerry) but insignificant signal in the east (Phoenix Park). Days >20mm rainfall. This is interesting with respect to more heat energy.

You are right about the change in pests and diseases.

The last couple of years here has seen infestations of Box Moth and Spindle Ermine Moth caterpillars.

Infested bushes and trees stripped to branches.

As for fungus, Plum Pocket disease has appeared this year and is well established in the wild populations of plums, gages, blackthorn etc.

A reservoir for future years.

[hillbilly]

8 hours ago, piglet said:

With respect, comparing past  civilisation's events with today's situation is irrelevant.

Those were probably local events - someone will dig out some stats to say otherwise - but more importantly, those civilisations were not causing global changes.

Increased population, increased demands on resources, decades of burning oil, gas and coal are making a difference, we, or at least the scientists know that and we are in a position to start to reverse those changes.

It's likely that the Mayans would have blamed it on the Rain God, but things have moved on since then.

My point was that drought has always existed throughout history and has almost certainly been far worse than anything in recorded history millenia ago.As for mans contribution no one really knows for certain but if people think they are going to stop the world overheating by buying an electric car they are deluded unless they can stop China burning coal today.Personally i think it is far too late,mankind is doomed but the world will keep on spinning and restore itself to its natural cycles when man has gone!

[Frigid]

Ironically, these past two days brought more rain than the previous four weeks when it was relatively cool. The beauty of British summers.

[piglet]

4 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Ironically, these past two days brought more rain than the previous four weeks when it was relatively cool. The beauty of British summers.

All down to location.

Wherever you are, divert some my way. Annoying to hear thunder last night, but maybe a bit of drizzle. Worked out at 1litre per square metre.

[hillbilly]

26 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Ironically, these past two days brought more rain than the previous four weeks when it was relatively cool. The beauty of British summers.

Yes i heard it was torrential in Manchester and got as far as J22 of the M62 just 5 miles shy of here ,i heard the thunder and the skies became dark but not even a spit here.

[damianslaw]

Will be good to know rain stats after last 2 days, suspect a few have closed in not far off June average already, whilst others are still on trace amounts including me. This on the back of trace since 14 May. Looks like will go a full month without anything but a sprinkling. 

Edited June 12, 2023 by damianslaw

[Cheshire Freeze]

Almost 2 inches here yesterday from two absolute belting storms. Should alleviate the soil moisture issues for the time being and make things a bit greener. Luckily fell later on in the day too so that the water had a chance to filter deeper into the soil overnight.

Going forward, it looks like many may see some much needed rain later in the weekend and early next week.

[The PIT]

Finally had some rain last evening not a lot though but it stopped the number of days without rain

[sebastiaan1973]

12th of may the last rain in De Bilt, the Netherlands. A new record in a couple of days of the longest period without percipation. 

[piglet]

I did find some water in the empty water butt yesterday morning, so yes, a day with rain. The volume of water was about 30-litres from a 30  square metre roof. Hoping my maths is correct, but that's 1.0 mm and that's in a now 4 to 5 week period.

Add to this the high temperatures, the baked soil, the geology (solid chalk overlaid with about 30 cm topsoil) and that isn't going far.

Looking at the Met Office forecast through to next Monday, it's pretty much less than 5 to 10% chance of precipitation and wall to wall sunshine.

So another day watering to keep stuff alive. More pressure on the aquifer.

Three local supply boreholes now have Drinking Water Inspectorate (DWI) orders for action to be taken to reduce the nitrate levels by 2026. Nitrate mainly from fertilizers and given that the percolation rate of surface water through unfissured chalk can be as slow as 1-metre per annum and boreholes here can be up to 75 metres deep, this could be the tip of future problems. As things stand, there is no alternative supply for a largish town. Back in 1980, most borehole water required no treatment other than adding some chlorine for public use. Now, it's going to have to have  additional treatment. By the sounds of it, I could already be getting nitrate in the tap water.

Nitrates and nitrites are not good health wise. Although rare, by-products like nitrosamines can result in cancer and blood disorders, methemoglobinemia, or "blue baby syndrome".

Of course, the stats will say that this is nothing unusual and that last year's heat might have been a one-off. If you've had some rain, that's good, but don't wonder why I find it a worry.

[Weather-history]

On 12/06/2023 at 08:55, Weather-history said:

The title of the thread is "worryingly dry". Why is it worryingly dry?

September 2022-April 2023 was wetter than the same period in 1975-76 for England and Wales: 793.5mm, that is just very slightly more than was recorded during the whole of 1976. That is more that was recorded during 2011.

So there has been somewhat of an offset against the dry conditions of the summer of 2022 that  didn't happen during September 1975-April 1976: 430.2mm.  Hence why we were really struggling during the summer of 1976. 

 

And the stats I posted above, we are not a decade into a protracted period of drier than normal conditions. 

 

 

 

 

This thread was quickly forgotten as soon the rain started falling. 

 

Nothing worryingly dry here in the NW of England.  Up here, it turned out the wettest July-September period since 1956.  

 

1918: 448.3mm

1956: 444.3mm

1927: 428.4mm

1950: 421.1mm

2023: 412.4mm

1935: 410.5mm

2012: 408.8mm

[carinthian]

14 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

This thread was quickly forgotten as soon the rain started falling. 

 

Nothing worryingly dry here in the NW of England.  Up here, it turned out the wettest July-September period since 1956.  

 

1918: 448.3mm

1956: 444.3mm

1927: 428.4mm

1950: 421.1mm

2023: 412.4mm

1935: 410.5mm

2012: 408.8mm

Looking at the obs for the first week of October the rain continues across the NW counties of England. I am just wondering how wet period July-October will turn out to be in comparison ? I am sure you will keep us updated ? All looks depressingly poor period of weather up there  over the past few months. More of the same to come ?

C

[Northernlights]

In contrast on South Side of Moray Firth field drains have only run for odd days these past few years .Only yesterday I was digging up dust in garden preparing a new strawberry patch .  All growth from garden to fields has been hampered by lack of rainfall this last summer.

[reef]

9 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

This thread was quickly forgotten as soon the rain started falling. 

Nothing worryingly dry here in the NW of England.  Up here, it turned out the wettest July-September period since 1956.  

1918: 448.3mm

1956: 444.3mm

1927: 428.4mm

1950: 421.1mm

2023: 412.4mm

1935: 410.5mm

2012: 408.8mm

I had a look at our figures and it has kind of fallen under the radar but here it was also the wettest June-September period since 1993.

Looking at the Hull figures which go back to 1847: only 1849, 1878, 1881, 1889, 1904, 1910, 1928, 1932, 1946 and 1969 were likely wetter.

So most likely the 6th wettest Jul-Sep period in the last 100 years for us too.

Edited October 6, 2023 by reef
Years were incorrect

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, reef said:

I had a look at our figures and it has kind of fallen under the radar but here it was also the wettest June-September period since 1993.

Looking at the Hull figures which go back to 1847: only 1849, 1878, 1881, 1889, 1904, 1910, 1928, 1932, 1947 and 1969 were likely wetter.

So most likely the 6th wettest Jul-Sep period in the last 100 years for us too.

1947? Are you sure about that? 

[Northernlights]

4 hours ago, Northernlights said:

In contrast on South Side of Moray Firth field drains have only run for odd days these past few years .Only yesterday I was digging up dust in garden preparing a new strawberry patch .  All growth from garden to fields has been hampered by lack of rainfall this last summer.

Just east of Elgin and NW of Inverness most farmers are getting too much rain especially this last fortnight. Old college pal in Aberdeenshire needs a dry week to finish lifting 80 acres of seed tatties and finishing sowing winter wheat. As I have often said to him if we could just combine his soil in the Howe of the Mearns and our climate we would be laughing. But instead he has a poorer climate and we have  poorer soils

[alexisj9]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

This thread was quickly forgotten as soon the rain started falling. 

 

Nothing worryingly dry here in the NW of England.  Up here, it turned out the wettest July-September period since 1956.  

 

1918: 448.3mm

1956: 444.3mm

1927: 428.4mm

1950: 421.1mm

2023: 412.4mm

1935: 410.5mm

2012: 408.8mm

Langdon bay recoded less than 25mm for September. Another dry month. Ok some ok months since may and June, but may June and September have not been the only dry months this year down here.

[reef]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

1947? Are you sure about that? 

Nope, I actually meant 1946! 

1947 was very dry with just 63.8mm in the Jul-Sep period. 

[kold weather]

Annual rainfall already into the top 70 of the records with a full 2 months left of the year. Instead of it being worryingly dry its becoming an increasingly wet year. 2012 and 2000 are the modern benchmarks for very wet years, though both 2019 and 2020 were also wet years.

Odds are by the end of this upcoming weekend we will be comfortably into the top 50 and with over 50 days left, hard to know how high we will go.

[alexisj9]

Lol it's certainly not dry now, hopefully full recovery after 2022 has finally happened. In the natural water table, in fact it's probably high in a lot of places.

[Weather-history]

On 06/10/2023 at 07:25, carinthian said:

Looking at the obs for the first week of October the rain continues across the NW counties of England. I am just wondering how wet period July-October will turn out to be in comparison ? I am sure you will keep us updated ? All looks depressingly poor period of weather up there  over the past few months. More of the same to come ?

C

Latest figures suggest that it has been the wettest July-October period  since 1967 for NW England region. October 1967 was wetter than October 2000 which is hard to believe how wet that October was up here!

[carinthian]

47 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Latest figures suggest that it has been the wettest July-October period  since 1967 for NW England region. October 1967 was wetter than October 2000 which is hard to believe how wet that October was up here!

Thats a remarkable statistic. Not sure about your sunshine totals but the combination of lack of sunshine and lots of rain make a miserable spell of weather for the NW counties and possibly across other regions as well.  As a young lad back on the farm in Cheshire I kept a weather diary ( now lost ) but do remember 1967 as being very wet out on the fields and my Dad had to bring the cattle indoors. Back here in the Eastern Alps , a wetter than normal October but not especially so, rather more notable for another well above average month temperature wise in these parts. Just hope November back in Blighty sees some respite soon ?

C

[kold weather]

October 2023 ends up with the 4th wettest October ever on the EWP rankings. The first 15 days were a little wetter than normal but the spell since Babet started has been nothing short of exceptionally wet.

As of 31st October we are now in the wetter 50% of Autumns, with a clearly very wet start to November to add in still to those figures. 

Already a wetter than normal year as well so far, so anything added on from this point is just pushing us further up the list. Top 10 easily within reach, though the record would require a pretty exceptional Nov-Dec combo (though we are certainly starting November at the required pace)

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

October 2023 ends up with the 4th wettest October ever on the EWP rankings. The first 15 days were a little wetter than normal but the spell since Babet started has been nothing short of exceptionally wet.

As of 31st October we are now in the wetter 50% of Autumns, with a clearly very wet start to November to add in still to those figures. 

Already a wetter than normal year as well so far, so anything added on from this point is just pushing us further up the list. Top 10 easily within reach, though the record would require a pretty exceptional Nov-Dec combo (though we are certainly starting November at the required pace)

And that adds to other recent very wet Octobers in 2019 and 2020, and wet Octobers in 2021 and 2022.

 

20 hours ago, kold weather said:

Annual rainfall already into the top 70 of the records with a full 2 months left of the year. Instead of it being worryingly dry its becoming an increasingly wet year. 2012 and 2000 are the modern benchmarks for very wet years, though both 2019 and 2020 were also wet years.

Odds are by the end of this upcoming weekend we will be comfortably into the top 50 and with over 50 days left, hard to know how high we will go.

The July-December rainfall will be interesting. While we could get a dry or even - if we're lucky - very dry December, we must be odds on for challenging for the record for the second half of the year if December is even slightly wetter than normal.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Summer8906