Worryingly dry

[piglet]

So far, May and start of June in the Southeast have been very dry and this trend has been getting worse since moving to this location nearly 40-years ago.

The chalk sub-soil responds very quickly to rainfall or lack of and the grass/lawn is a good indicator.

I used to cut the grass regularly, but now, it's a couple of cuts in May, maybe one in August then nothing until about October.

Already, it's mainly brown.

It's a struggle having to water potted plants now and as much as I dislike doing it, I will have to go over to mains water instead of water butts.

Conditions right now are ideal drought conditions - wall to wall intense sun and a strong north-easterly wind to boot.

There is very little surface water left and I often ask people who like these conditions, where they would go if they had to find water for themselves. Answering Tesco is not an option.

Here, all the drinking water is chalk aquifer sourced. If it doesn't go in, it doesn't come out. More and more housing puts more demand on supply. Increasing supply by more pumping pulls in more pollutants like nitrates.

Fields of spring sown crops like cereals and potatoes are crying out for moisture now.

We cannot simply keep ignoring these changes or at this rate, those around in 50 to 100 years time are going to be in a parlous state.

[hillbilly]

9 hours ago, piglet said:

So far, May and start of June in the Southeast have been very dry and this trend has been getting worse since moving to this location nearly 40-years ago.

The chalk sub-soil responds very quickly to rainfall or lack of and the grass/lawn is a good indicator.

I used to cut the grass regularly, but now, it's a couple of cuts in May, maybe one in August then nothing until about October.

Already, it's mainly brown.

It's a struggle having to water potted plants now and as much as I dislike doing it, I will have to go over to mains water instead of water butts.

Conditions right now are ideal drought conditions - wall to wall intense sun and a strong north-easterly wind to boot.

There is very little surface water left and I often ask people who like these conditions, where they would go if they had to find water for themselves. Answering Tesco is not an option.

Here, all the drinking water is chalk aquifer sourced. If it doesn't go in, it doesn't come out. More and more housing puts more demand on supply. Increasing supply by more pumping pulls in more pollutants like nitrates.

Fields of spring sown crops like cereals and potatoes are crying out for moisture now.

We cannot simply keep ignoring these changes or at this rate, those around in 50 to 100 years time are going to be in a parlous state.

In the last 50 years the population has increased 10-15 million but almost no resevoirs have been built.

Edited June 4, 2023 by hillbilly

[Cheshire Freeze]

16 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

In the last 50 years the population has increased 10-15 million but almost no resevoirs have been built.

Something tells me that some sort of action will be needed soon to ensure continued water supply. Drought is becoming an almost annual thing now. Since 2018 it seems like there has been rumblings of hosepipe bans/water shortages every summer.

Even during autumn and winter (a period where reservoirs are usually replenished) we’re seeing the Azores HP and Euro HP combine to keep the weather benign.

We need a solid 6 months of above average rainfall (not excessively so) rather than the 1 month deluge 6 month dry spell we’re seeing repeated ad infinitum at the moment.

Climate change seems to be accelerating at a frightening pace at the moment. Even in 10-20 years time the difference could be stark.

Edited June 4, 2023 by CreweCold

[ANYWEATHER]

25 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

In the last 50 years the population has increased 10-15 million but almost no resevoirs have been built.

I've  been saying that for years. .?

[Scuba steve]

Some metrics suggest U.K. population at 75 million and to be honest it does seem so 

[Bristawl Si]

There's always something for some folks to worry about

[damianslaw]

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Something tells me that some sort of action will be needed soon to ensure continued water supply. Drought is becoming an almost annual thing now. Since 2018 it seems like there has been rumblings of hosepipe bans/water shortages every summer.

Even during autumn and winter (a period where reservoirs are usually replenished) we’re seeing the Azores HP and Euro HP combine to keep the weather benign.

We need a solid 6 months of above average rainfall (not excessively so) rather than the 1 month deluge 6 month dry spell we’re seeing repeated ad infinitum at the moment.

Climate change seems to be accelerating at a frightening pace at the moment. Even in 10-20 years time the difference could be stark.

We have had very wet and very dry periods for past three or so decades.

Autumn 88 to Spring 92 very dry

Summer 92 to Winter 94-95 very wet

Spring 95 to Spring 97 exceptionally dry

Summer 97 to Dec 00 exceptionally wet

Jan 01 - Winter 04-05 bucked the trend generally quite average overall, some not overly dry and wet spells cancelling each other out, though 03 was quite a dry year 

Spring 05 to Autumn 06 exceptionally dry

Winter 06-07 to Winter 09-10 wet

Winter 09-10 to Spring 12 very dry

Spring 12 all the way through to winter 20-21 bar the springs and summers 18 and 20 very wet

Winter 20-21 to now very dry bar odd wetter spell March 23 example

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by damianslaw

[piglet]

I've been professionally involved in climate change since the early 70's and well before the term became popular.

When I started, carbon dioxide levels were 320 ppm. It now stands at 410 ppm. A 33% increase in about 50 years.

This is almost certainly due to population growth globally and demand on resources like energy and fossil fuels.

I think this is something to worry about.

We do get plenty of rain in the winter in the UK, but most goes to waste. Of course, storage would help. The Southeast last year was like a desert.

But there has to be a global solution. The climate and the weather systems are like supertankers, slow to accelerate and slow to respond to corrections. All the indicators like extreme flooding and droughts are there. Ignore at our peril.

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Something tells me that some sort of action will be needed soon to ensure continued water supply. Drought is becoming an almost annual thing now. Since 2018 it seems like there has been rumblings of hosepipe bans/water shortages every summer.

Even during autumn and winter (a period where reservoirs are usually replenished) we’re seeing the Azores HP and Euro HP combine to keep the weather benign.

We need a solid 6 months of above average rainfall (not excessively so) rather than the 1 month deluge 6 month dry spell we’re seeing repeated ad infinitum at the moment.

Climate change seems to be accelerating at a frightening pace at the moment. Even in 10-20 years time the difference could be stark.

And to think during 2007-2012 those summers were going to be more of the norm due to increased northern blocking therefore our summers would be largely cool and wet. now it's climate change making our summers more blocked! 

Apart from the SE, has there been anything exceptional during our summers in terms of a lack of rainfall. Certainly not around here and whilst last summer was out of the ordinary in terms of dryness, it's certainly not unheard of and we soon recover come Autumn and winter time. It's the temperatures I'm more concerned about, ironically the rainfall across Europe may mean the risk of 40C this year would be quite low but it's no doubt it will occur again with climate change.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

We have had 3 weeks of dry weather. Prior to this we had 11 weeks of mostly wet weather. 

[Dark Horse]

2 hours ago, hillbilly said:

In the last 50 years the population has increased 10-15 million but almost no resevoirs have been built.

More reservoirs are no good if it doesn't rain often. Stating the obvious but you need rain to fill them.

[LetItSnow!]

I don’t buy the increasingly dry trend at all. Late 2021 and most of 2022 bucked the trend of the anomalously wet period that was 2013 to 2021, a period that bar a few interludes brought many wet years, quite a lot of wet summers and winters. I think it was bound to happen that it would come to an end. Perhaps we’re in a drier spell now. I don’t think recent summers pre 2022 have seen a trend for drought. 2018 was very dry but 2019 and 2020 were often very unsettled. June 2019 was exceptionally wet. The summer of 2019 was wet overall and exceptionally so in the north. Summer 2020 was also wet. Summer 2021 was wet in the south but dry in the north I know. So I disagree with a notion that dry weather has become more common. I remember a while ago someone said something but it turns out most summers since 2007 have been wetter than average to some degree. One thing I do agree and is obvious is the wild swings between dry and wet that have occurred since 2019. Generally the wet weather has overtaken the dry. I think Roger pointed out the 2020s so far has had an unusual frequency of producing exceptionally wet months but also quite a lot of very dry ones. One thing is for certain and that is that at the moment 2023 is shaping up to be very polarising for its rainfall. Very wet first half of January, then bone dry until early March. Then nonstop soaking rains until mid-May, now dry as a bone. You have to wonder will it break again and give us an exceptionally wet July/August… Don’t ask me, I don’t know  

[Dark Horse]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

But when it does rain, the extra reservoirs will take pressure off the existing ones when there are drought  issues

True but the problem is we need more frequent rain than years ago to fill them after a long dry spell. More people = more water used. I've been looking at the reservoir levels for years on the United utilities website and they seem to get depleted a lot faster now. Wednesday's update will be telling.

Edited June 5, 2023 by Dark Horse

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

I don’t buy the increasingly dry trend at all. Late 2021 and most of 2022 bucked the trend of the anomalously wet period that was 2013 to 2021, a period that bar a few interludes brought many wet years, quite a lot of wet summers and winters. I think it was bound to happen that it would come to an end. Perhaps we’re in a drier spell now. I don’t think recent summers pre 2022 have seen a trend for drought. 2018 was very dry but 2019 and 2020 were often very unsettled. June 2019 was exceptionally wet. The summer of 2019 was wet overall and exceptionally so in the north. Summer 2020 was also wet. Summer 2021 was wet in the south but dry in the north I know. So I disagree with a notion that dry weather has become more common. I remember a while ago someone said something but it turns out most summers since 2007 have been wetter than average to some degree. One thing I do agree and is obvious is the wild swings between dry and wet that have occurred since 2019. Generally the wet weather has overtaken the dry. I think Roger pointed out the 2020s so far has had an unusual frequency of producing exceptionally wet months but also quite a lot of very dry ones. One thing is for certain and that is that at the moment 2023 is shaping up to be very polarising for its rainfall. Very wet first half of January, then bone dry until early March. Then nonstop soaking rains until mid-May, now dry as a bone. You have to wonder will it break again and give us an exceptionally wet July/August… Don’t ask me, I don’t know  

I think we could well see a switch to very wet from thundery outbreaks thanks to an injection of heat.

[Cheshire Freeze]

EC seasonal offers nothing where rainfall is concerned. It has been rock solid on its prognosis for multiple updates now

[Sunny76]

On 04/06/2023 at 22:37, CreweCold said:

Something tells me that some sort of action will be needed soon to ensure continued water supply. Drought is becoming an almost annual thing now. Since 2018 it seems like there has been rumblings of hosepipe bans/water shortages every summer.

Even during autumn and winter (a period where reservoirs are usually replenished) we’re seeing the Azores HP and Euro HP combine to keep the weather benign.

We need a solid 6 months of above average rainfall (not excessively so) rather than the 1 month deluge 6 month dry spell we’re seeing repeated ad infinitum at the moment.

Climate change seems to be accelerating at a frightening pace at the moment. Even in 10-20 years time the difference could be stark.

We don’t need too much rain either though.

A short spell of rain, 2-3 days a month would be enough. 

[ANYWEATHER]

On 05/06/2023 at 00:28, Dark Horse said:

More reservoirs are no good if it doesn't rain often. Stating the obvious but you need rain to fill them.

This thread may as well be called Scaremongering galore ! We have more than enough rain in this country to fill reservoirs . 97% of rain that falls goes uncatched. Answer ,yes build more infrastructure to catch the rain, in an overcrowded and well overpopulated island as ours...

[stainesbloke]

20 hours ago, Dark Horse said:

True but the problem is we need more frequent rain than years ago to fill them after a long dry spell. More people = more water used. I've been looking at the reservoir levels for years on the United utilities website and they seem to get depleted a lot faster now. Wednesday's update will be telling.

It rains more than enough in the UK for everyone’s needs. The problem is down to a massive lack of investment in the water supply network, going back quite a few decades. How many billions of gallons are lost by the greedy water companies, too? 

5 hours ago, CreweCold said:

EC seasonal offers nothing where rainfall is concerned. It has been rock solid on its prognosis for multiple updates now

If ‘we’ need 6 months of rain, then it needs to fall between October and April

[Cheshire Freeze]

13 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

We don’t need too much rain either though.

A short spell of rain, 2-3 days a month would be enough. 

6 months of average to just above average rainfall is what I meant. We can’t seem to get that at the moment.

Obviously too much rain would be counterproductive in other ways.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I personally think we already have enough rain as it is. The problem is that we keep getting stuck weather patterns which seems to have become a lot more commonplace since the beginning of the 2020s. We either get weeks on end of dry weather with very little to no rainfall, or we get a washout for weeks on end with very little in the way of useable days. There isn't much in the way of variety these days. This pattern surely has to break eventually.

[piglet]

3 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

This thread may as well be called Scaremongering galore ! We have more than enough rain in this country to fill reservoirs . 97% of rain that falls goes uncatched. Answer ,yes build more infrastructure to catch the rain, in an overcrowded and well overpopulated island as ours...

You miss the point.

It's not just the water that comes out of the tap, but it's the acres and acres of farmers fields and general countryside that suffers the most.

Last year houses burnt down when grassland was tinder dry.

I know the Southeast gets a lot of stick, but it's in the firing line when it comes to water stress.

The forecast here is for another 10 days at least without rain. I personally don't want another year like last when it was too hot to go outside.

As well as reservoirs, probably half the supply here comes from chalk or greensand aquifers. With a recharge rate of about a metre a year in unfissured chalk, the problem might be years before it becomes apparent. Some of the coastal boreholes are already close to pulling in seawater and nitrate from farming was appearing in the late 70s.

[Dark Horse]

7 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

This thread may as well be called Scaremongering galore ! We have more than enough rain in this country to fill reservoirs . 97% of rain that falls goes uncatched. Answer ,yes build more infrastructure to catch the rain, in an overcrowded and well overpopulated island as ours...

I don't think it's scaremongering as we're in a prolonged dry spell with no real end in sight. Rarely was the ground up here cracked and tinder dry like it is now this early. Bar 1976, 1995, 2018 and last year this didn't occur here. It has already again this year and we're not much into summer. A knee jerk reaction would be saying it'll be dry for the rest of summer and into the Autumn which is probably unlikely but I don't think it's bad to talk about how dry things are right now so it's not a taboo.

7 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

It rains more than enough in the UK for everyone’s needs. The problem is down to a massive lack of investment in the water supply network, going back quite a few decades. How many billions of gallons are lost by the greedy water companies, too? 

If ‘we’ need 6 months of rain, then it needs to fall between October and April

Yeah I agree in terms of leaks and greed but a huge population doesn't help. I'm in favour of nationalisation of important infrastructure like the water supply, railways etc. Maybe they won't be treated like a cash cow then.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Dark Horse

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

I don't think it's scaremongering as we're in a prolonged dry spell with no real end in sight. Rarely was the ground up here cracked and tinder dry like it is now this early. Bar 1976, 1995, 2018 and last year this didn't occur here. It has already again this year and we're not much into summer. A knee jerk reaction would be saying it'll be dry for the rest of summer and into the Autumn which is probably unlikely but I don't think it's bad to talk about how dry things are right now so it's not a taboo.

Yeah I agree in terms of leaks and greed but a huge population doesn't help. I'm in favour of nationalisation of important infrastructure like the water supply, railways etc. Maybe they won't be treated like a cash cow then.

I agree, DH. I think some folks, whether it's due to ignorance or ideology, simply fail to realise just how much water we waste in this country. 

[piglet]

7 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

I don't think it's scaremongering as we're in a prolonged dry spell with no real end in sight. Rarely was the ground up here cracked and tinder dry like it is now this early. Bar 1976, 1995, 2018 and last year this didn't occur here. It has already again this year and we're not much into summer. A knee jerk reaction would be saying it'll be dry for the rest of summer and into the Autumn which is probably unlikely but I don't think it's bad to talk about how dry things are right now so it's not a taboo.

Yeah I agree in terms of leaks and greed but a huge population doesn't help. I'm in favour of nationalisation of important infrastructure like the water supply, railways etc. Maybe they won't be treated like a cash cow then.

Yes agreed.

Of all the utilities, water supply is crucial and should not be run for shareholder profit.

When profit becomes more important than the core service, engineers get replaced by money men.

£216m fines for Southern Water demonstrated that they can't be trusted and luckily they got caught.

We need engineers with the vision of Brunel and Bazalgette, not MBAs.

[damianslaw]

Watching the torrents of rain that flows straight into our rivers and not captured jars with drought orders. We need to capture and store it far more effectively.