First 30°C in the UK - 2023

[Metwatch]

Thought I'd start this as it will be interesting to see when we see the first 30°C this summer, with the first chance of that potentially this weekend. Pretty much each year sees it now and this year I don't see it as being an exception of not getting to 30C.

So far only the ICON and UKV have 30C shown this weekend onwards although ICON this afternoon shows 28C as the max. UKV goes for an interesting solution with 30C in the east but elsewhere not as warm/hot likely due to cloud cover. 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Metwatch

[Dancerwithwings]

That UkV temp chart is very, very unlikely to happen

within 60 miles you go from 17c to 30c, yeah right

[damianslaw]

Not anticipating 30 degrees anytime soon anywhere. Perhaps somewhere might nudge 28 degrees this weekend, but the exception, 24-26 maxes for most.

[Metwatch]

50 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

That UkV temp chart is very, very unlikely to happen

within 60 miles you go from 17c to 30c, yeah right

Although UKV is an extreme example I reckon sharp temperature contrasts can and do happen during summer in the UK with a south easterly to easterly wind direction and a low to the south west bringing in thunderstorms. (if someone can give examples maybe@Weather-history) 

We would just need one area to be cloaked in cloud and heavy, thundery rain while a different area is still under sunshine. I think such set ups and temperature distribution typically occur during those south easterlies or easterly winds where the south and west can be under rain, while further north or east it's sunny, still under warm air and thus a lot warmer. Maybe another case is with a northerly wind direction and rain in the east while warm in the west another possible synoptic set up. 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Metwatch

[markyo]

Fingers crossed not till 2024 at the earliest!

[Dancerwithwings]

Yes that set up regarding 50 miles differences in temps 17c to 30c in the past have been know, with a right good break down with whoppers of big bangs-flashes and torrential flash flooring …..love it

[richie3846]

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

Yes that set up regarding 50 miles differences in temps 17c to 30c in the past have been know, with a right good break down with whoppers of big bangs-flashes and torrential flash flooring …..love it

With no official weather stations nearby, I think it was 2020 when we had a scorching spell in August, Swindon was around the 35c mark at 5pm, while simultaneously in Highworth, 5 miles away, they had at least 2 inches of rain in 2 hours, maybe more, causing damaging flooding to the hilltop town, flooding several properties. The temperature there was around 20c. 

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

With no official weather stations nearby, I think it was 2020 when we had a scorching spell in August, Swindon was around the 35c mark at 5pm, while simultaneously in Highworth, 5 miles away, they had at least 2 inches of rain in 2 hours, maybe more, causing damaging flooding to the hilltop town, flooding several properties. The temperature there was around 20c. 

I love extremes whatever the seasons we are in, but a 2 hour window regarding a 15c drop would be great in Winter….5c to -10c in a couple hours would be my dream in my back yard

My apologies….this thread is about somewhere seeing 30c 

[Met.]

I laughed and laughed and laughed at that tiny spec of 30C on that first map. 

I predict that 2023 won't see 30C at all... it will reach 29.9C on the warmest day this year, with July and August being cyclonic and cool. Nice change from recent year's heatwaves.

[Dancerwithwings]

8 minutes ago, Met. said:

I laughed and laughed and laughed at that tiny spec of 30C on that first map. 

I predict that 2023 won't see 30C at all... it will reach 29.9C on the warmest day this year, with July and August being cyclonic and cool. Nice change from recent year's heatwaves.

Of course we will…we are in El Nino territory this Summer, never 100% but more likely to see a HOT HOUSE summer in Europe….

[Met.]

2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Of course we will…we are in El Nino territory this Summer, never 100% but more likely to see a HOT HOUSE summer in Europe….

Interesting - don't know much about any link between El Nino and the UK's summer temperatures - can you show a clear correlation between El Nino's and summer heatwaves?

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Not anticipating 30 degrees anytime soon anywhere. Perhaps somewhere might nudge 28 degrees this weekend, but the exception, 24-26 maxes for most.

Pretty good consensus for the 850hPa temperatures to maybe touch 12-13C in the east this weekend which would support mid to high 20s. However i think with a fair amount of mid and high level cloud expected and possible convective rainfall, the chance of a 30C is quite low, no higher than 15-20% at this stage. However as you say an isolated 27-28C should be seen somewhere where there is some sunshine.

[Dancerwithwings]

12 minutes ago, Met. said:

Interesting - don't know much about any link between El Nino and the UK's summer temperatures - can you show a clear correlation between El Nino's and summer heatwaves?

Its very complex and I’m no top dollar expert in this field by any means.
During an El Niño, the oceans transfers some of that excess heat and moisture to the atmosphere, so a strong El Nino can add up to 0.2°C to the average temperature of the Earth. The hottest year on record was 2016, during a particularly strong El Niño. A La Niña year can also break heat, but 60% of the time Europe endures hot summers when we are in EL Nino territory….BUT we’ll see 

[lassie23]

25th December 2023 is my prediction 

[Dancerwithwings]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

25th December 2023 is my prediction 

And me in Lapland…2123

[Metwatch]

Looks like the chance of 30°C being reached Saturday onwards is on the increase. Quite a few models such as UKV, ICON and ARPEGE bring in the 15°C 850hPa isotherm, which would be supportive of high 20s for many areas, and a few spots touching 30°C. All dependant on cloud cover amounts though.

Edited June 8, 2023 by Metwatch

[kold weather]

27 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Looks like the chance of 30°C being reached Saturday onwards is on the increase. Quite a few models such as UKV, ICON and ARPEGE bring in the 15°C 850hPa isotherm, which would be supportive of high 20s for many areas, and a few spots touching 30°C. All dependant on cloud cover amounts though.

Also worth noting that with warmer SSTs than normal pretty much across the board now, we may not require the set-up to be as good as you'd normally be looking for in the first half of June. 

Its also worth saying that whilst 30c in June isn't that uncommon, it is more uncommon for it to happen in the first half of the month.

[Metwatch]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Also worth noting that with warmer SSTs than normal pretty much across the board now, we may not require the set-up to be as good as you'd normally be looking for in the first half of June. 

Its also worth saying that whilst 30c in June isn't that uncommon, it is more uncommon for it to happen in the first half of the month.

Yeah, and also another factor is how dry the ground is now, with some reports coming in that the grass is starting to shows signs of stress (turning a bit yellow) especially across the Southeast. The areas who miss the potential storms in the east have the best chance at temperatures climbing as high as possible come Saturday and Sunday. 

[sunny_vale]

When was the last time 30C was recorded by the 10th of June? For Heathrow I think it might have been May 2005.

[Summer8906]

On 06/06/2023 at 20:47, lassie23 said:

25th December 2023 is my prediction 

No, that'll be 13c max, 12c min...

[kold weather]

2 hours ago, sunny_vale said:

When was the last time 30C was recorded by the 10th of June? For Heathrow I think it might have been May 2005.

I believe 2012, which recorded it in the very warm end of May spell.

Its a pretty unusual thing to get in the first half of the month, more common in the 2nd half though.

[sunny_vale]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I believe 2012, which recorded it in the very warm end of May spell.

Its a pretty unusual thing to get in the first half of the month, more common in the 2nd half though.

I see, this is quite an impressive start to summer then if we do indeed verify a 30C.

[Metwatch]

27.5°C in Porthmadog west Wales as of 2pm due to foehn from the easterly winds, and the much warmer airmass is only just starting to arrive to the far south. 

[Man With Beard]

Well I had a garden temperature earlier today of 30.3C, do I win?

[audiotech]

Porthmadog, Wales recorded 29.7C on Friday according to Met Office official station. Not quite the magic 30C though i'm sure somewhere will get there on Saturday.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation