Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

[Thunderspotter]

Just now, Alderc 2.0 said:

Not a single model has precipitation in the highlighted area at 20Z - I would expect things are significantly further north than expected. 
 

Don't get my hopes up too high haha 

 

[StormLoser]

Estofex keeps the action in France. Still, that ought to be near enough for us to get a Yellow Weather Warning...    

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Not a single model has precipitation in the highlighted area at 20Z - I would expect things are significantly further north than expected. 
 

Or perhaps it's an early ignition, not expecting any thing at this time anywhere.

[Alderc 2.0]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Or perhaps it's an early ignition, not expecting any thing at this time anywhere.

Well whatever it is the models have done a p155 poor job again in the very shortest  of ranges. 

[CoventryWeather]

 

1 minute ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Well whatever it is the models have done a p155 poor job again in the very shortest  of ranges. 

Very poor job. I personally think everything is a lot further north. Anywhere south of Oxford perhaps? 

[Thunderspotter]

Strange heavy outburst under (south-west) Weymouth, seems quite isolated.

Edited August 23, 2023 by Thunderspotter

[LightningLover]

2 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Well whatever it is the models have done a p155 poor job again in the very shortest  of ranges. 

Quietly hopeful that the boundary is too far south on most models, and that the S/SE will be repeatedly slammed!

[Alderc 2.0]

1 minute ago, Thunderspotter said:

Strange heavy outburst under Weymouth, seems quite isolated.

That’s anaprop. 

[Metwatch]

Just now, Thunderspotter said:

Strange heavy outburst under Weymouth, seems quite isolated.

That looks a little suspicious

[CoventryWeather]

I now get the idea why people don't use models when there is a plume scenario. They don't have a clue!!

[Alderc 2.0]

Just now, Metwatch said:

That looks a little suspicious

wayyyyyyyy

[Ryan H]

2 hours ago, Thunderspotter said:

Things had gotton a lot darker over here, so I went into the garden and was greeted by this! The depth that I could see in that cloud was awesome.

Saw the mammatus clouds when I was outside heading towards me in the fields with my dad.

[ChannelThunder]

Solely a channel show on the 18z and all in daylight hours. Gotta get up and go over to the office either way so just aswell I got my fix in Arizona recently

[LightningLover]

1 minute ago, ChannelThunder said:

Solely a channel show on the 18z and all in daylight hours. Gotta get up and go over to the office either way so just aswell I got my fix in Arizona recently

Could still change!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

32 minutes ago, Thunderspotter said:

Strange heavy outburst under (south-west) Weymouth, seems quite isolated.

Lana Prop

[Alderc 2.0]

6 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Solely a channel show on the 18z and all in daylight hours. Gotta get up and go over to the office either way so just aswell I got my fix in Arizona recently

UkV not having a good day. It needs to be unplugged and given a rest. 

[Jamie M]

UKV 18z ..

[LeveLUP]

45 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Or perhaps it's an early ignition, not expecting any thing at this time anywhere.

I'm getting weird rain here.

 

Big droplets but its light. Not sure if that means anything though 

[Eagle Eye]

Me and Jay's forecast coming soon. It's looking better than expected to be honest. I'm staying up all night. 

1 minute ago, LeveLUP said:

I'm getting weird rain here.

 

Big droplets but its light. Not sure if that means anything though 

Almost definitely pre-stormy night elevated instability. First signs of it. Doesn't guarantee it but good signs. 

[Metwatch]

AROME 18z not having it tonight. Let the battle of the hi-res models begin I say.

[alexisj9]

20 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

UKV 18z ..

Just heard channel show from that above, I see multiple MCS over the se.

[LeveLUP]

12 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

AROME 18z not having it tonight. Let the battle of the hi-res models begin I say.

I believe it seeing as the Met office has a warning out

[alexisj9]

15 minutes ago, LeveLUP said:

I'm getting weird rain here.

 

Big droplets but its light. Not sure if that means anything though 

Sounds like the rain we've often had here since last year, I expect it not wetting anything.

[LeveLUP]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Sounds like the rain we've often had here since last year, I expect it not wetting anything.

Yup barely dropped the temperature. Felt cooler for a bit but it stopped about 2 minutes ago and already feels like I'm back in an oven

[Jamie M]

So close but yet so far