September 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[SqueakheartLW]

15 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

It's happened because of a couple of things:

 As a planet we just  experienced the warmest two months ever recorded, back to back.  July 2023 warmest ever recorded, August 2023 2nd warmest ever recorded. June 2023 was the 8th warmest.

We got lucky /unlucky (depending on your weather preference) during July and August by avoiding seeing that heat dome migrate north.

It didn't go away though - we just finally tapped into it, just as August turned to September. Given the timing, it maxed out our stats for the month. 

Also we wouldn't be discussing this record at all if we'd had raging northerlies all month long either. It shows how much the CET is down to the source of the air mass rather than any warming trend.

Might have seen a 11C or 12C September if we'd had Arctic sourced air all month long.

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Also we wouldn't be discussing this record at all if we'd had raging northerlies all month long either. It shows how much the CET is down to the source of the air mass rather than any warming trend.

Might have seen a 11C or 12C September if we'd had Arctic sourced air all month long.

What the reason for the warm air masses that come from the south being warmer now than they used to be?

[SqueakheartLW]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

What the reason for the warm air masses that come from the south being warmer now than they used to be?

Persistent blocking high pressure areas allowing heat to build up underneath them have become a more common feature since the Super Nino event back in 2015. I still think the atmosphere and the oceans haven't ever recovered from that record event and we've not had a strong La Nina event since then to balance things out again.

All it takes is for us to tap into the heat dome as it breaks down and we have record warmth.

[reef]

41 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Persistent blocking high pressure areas allowing heat to build up underneath them have become a more common feature since the Super Nino event back in 2015. I still think the atmosphere and the oceans haven't ever recovered from that record event and we've not had a strong La Nina event since then to balance things out again.

All it takes is for us to tap into the heat dome as it breaks down and we have record warmth.

We've just come out of a triple-dip La Nina, if anything the globe should be cooler.

Its not down to the patterns as we've just had a July and August that barely tapped into southern sourced air yet both struggled to fall below 16C on the CET.

Our cold sources of air are less cold and warm sources warmer than previously. There's one main reason for that.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I would like to see an animation showing how July panned out for the UK and Western Europe but I don't know how to do it?  Is someone able to post something?

Edited October 2, 2023 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Derecho]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

It surprises me how many very knowledgeable people in here trust the GFS in situations like that. The same thing happened in June when some were convinced it was going to go below 17.0C a few days before the end of the month.

That's always the risk with raw output, the only reason why I use it is because the tables are very easy to generate on meteociel these days. Of course the caveats of model bias were there but the EC agreed with it also!

The GFS did perform really well in the earlier September heatwave (see the posts from that time) but seemed to be more cool biased as the month progressed. It wouldn't surprise me if it was underestimating temperatures for next weekend as well.

Back when I worked as a forecaster the models were bias adjusted (to get downscaled temps), however not having access to that data anymore its difficult to know what the recent biases have been!

Edited October 2, 2023 by Derecho

[Metwatch]

19 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

I would like to see an animation showing how July panned out for the UK and Western Europe but I don't know how to do it?  Is someone able to post something?

Reanalysis archives

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

This might be what you're looking for?

[Roger J Smith]

The ranking table posted a few days ago (page 16 if we all have same pagination, or 28th ... is still okay without edit, subject still to J10 scoring CET contest. Congrats to sunny_vale (17.1 forecast made 24th Aug!) and Earthshine (also 17.1 after a savvy edit), RJBingham who made a first contest entry two days late (17.2) and Midlands Ice Age at 16.7 after a late edit. Mazelike took fifth at 16.6 and then came myself and Methuselah (sounds Biblical) at 16.2 (which seemed pretty daring at the time). 

EWP was confirmed at 91.0, very close to our highest forecast of 92.0 from summer18. Second was Emmett Garland at 87 mm, and third was at 85.0 (JeffC) with a later entry by Summer Shower also 85.0 in fourth. A 19th place 15.9 CET forecast was good enough for Summer Shower to take best combined by lowest total ranks (23, one of the highest winning totals we've had, usually we have a forecast or two that total under ten in ranks). EWP ranks are subject to adjustment if table value on 5th is outside the range of 89.6 and above, if it falls into that range, ranks remain same. CET ranks are official when J10 scores the contest. 

I will also edit any other posts made by me involving CET daily or monthly data. Can already say from memory that June to September will average second behind 2006 and just ahead of 1826/1976 tied. 

[J10]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

The ranking table posted a few days ago (page 16 if we all have same pagination, or 28th ... is still okay without edit, subject still to J10 scoring CET contest. Congrats to sunny_vale (17.1 forecast made 24th Aug!) and Earthshine (also 17.1 after a savvy edit), RJBingham who made a first contest entry two days late (17.2) and Midlands Ice Age at 16.7 after a late edit. Mazelike took fifth at 16.6 and then came myself and Methuselah (sounds Biblical) at 16.2 (which seemed pretty daring at the time). 

EWP was confirmed at 91.0, very close to our highest forecast of 92.0 from summer18. Second was Emmett Garland at 87 mm, and third was at 85.0 (JeffC) with a later entry by Summer Shower also 85.0 in fourth. A 19th place 15.9 CET forecast was good enough for Summer Shower to take best combined by lowest total ranks (23, one of the highest winning totals we've had, usually we have a forecast or two that total under ten in ranks). EWP ranks are subject to adjustment if table value on 5th is outside the range of 89.6 and above, if it falls into that range, ranks remain same. CET ranks are official when J10 scores the contest. 

I will also edit any other posts made by me involving CET daily or monthly data. Can already say from memory that June to September will average second behind 2006 and just ahead of 1826/1976 tied. 

There were quite a few successful late edits this month. Scores up later this evening.

[damianslaw]

The airstream throughout September predominantly from between west and se. May have had brief NW sourced air further north.

The heat over the continent combined with warm SSTs probably added a good degree to mean average temps compared to usual. We went into Sept with a baseline at least 1 degree above normal, October even more so. 

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by damianslaw

[Don]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The heat over the continent combined with warm SSTs probably added a good degree to mean average temps compared to usual. We went into Sept with a baseline at least 1 degree above normal, October even more so. 

A late start to autumn and winter this year with the high SST's and lingering warmth?!

[Don]

For the UK as a whole, September was joint warmest on record with 2006 at 15.2C

Joint-warmest September on record for UK

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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The UK had its joint-warmest September on record in a series which goes back to 1884 according to provisional Met Office statistics.

 

[J10]

Excel Sept 2023 CET.xlsx

Summary Sept 2023 Summary.pdf

Summary Overall Sept 2023 Summary Overall.pdf

Monthly

Two players 0.1c out, sunny_vale and Earthshine

3 others within 0.5c, RJBingham (0.2c), Midlands Ice Age (0.3c) and mazelike (0.4c)

Seasonal

Very similar to the monthly score, but with a few penalty points changing the order of the Top 10.

Overall

No change to the Top 4.
Summer Sun (1st), DR(S)NO (2nd), Leo97t (3rd) and The PIT (4th)

Very little change also to the Top 10.

Edited October 2, 2023 by J10

[WYorksWeather]

Perhaps also worth mentioning that this month also continues the streak of months above the 1961-1990 average, which now stands at nine. We've seen streaks of over a year across two calendar years fairly recently, but to my knowledge (unless it has happened further back), we have never had a streak that covers an entire calendar year in the CET record. Last year was the closest I'm aware of, falling at the last hurdle in December.

Could this be the year?

[Don]

38 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Perhaps also worth mentioning that this month also continues the streak of months above the 1961-1990 average, which now stands at nine. We've seen streaks of over a year across two calendar years fairly recently, but to my knowledge (unless it has happened further back), we have never had a streak that covers an entire calendar year in the CET record. Last year was the closest I'm aware of, falling at the last hurdle in December.

Could this be the year?

I was thinking this last year that could 2022 be the first calendar year where every month was above the 1961-90 average, as I'm not aware of that happening before either?  However, like you say, December put pay to that and fortunately (for some of us) it happened to be a winter month!  Sooner or later this will happen and going by the current expectation for the next few months, I would say there is a strong chance that 2023 will be the year.

[WYorksWeather]

3 hours ago, Don said:

I was thinking this last year that could 2022 be the first calendar year where every month was above the 1961-90 average, as I'm not aware of that happening before either?  However, like you say, December put pay to that and fortunately (for some of us) it happened to be a winter month!  Sooner or later this will happen and going by the current expectation for the next few months, I would say there is a strong chance that 2023 will be the year.

I went ahead and checked the dataset. There are no years where all 12 months were above the 1961-90 climatology. If you fudge it a bit and allow months with anomalies greater than -0.05 to be rounded up to zero, and treat those as positive, then 2017 qualifies.

If you go with the strict definition (monthly anomalies must be greater than 0, unrounded), then the following years have 11/12 months with positive anomalies relative to 1961-90:

1781, 1834, 1945, 1949, 1959, 1999, 2003, 2006, 2014, and 2022.

There have been the same number of such years in the last 30 years than in the more than 300 years that precede them. Of the last 30 years, 5 of them achieve 11/12, or 17%. Even if this year doesn't do the clean sweep, the odds of us having two below average months out of three are pretty low, so it'll almost certainly add another year to the list above.

 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is now into the table at 91.0 mm, same as tracker. Will repost the scoring table later today, small revisions are made to average error values. The table of combined CET and EWP ranks needs no adjustments.  

[Roger J Smith]

 

EWP scoring for September 2023 and updated annual scoring

A new system is being used to derive average error for entrants missing one to five months; the missing months are now added into their totals for average error, taking consensus error plus 5 mm, a forecast which usually scores around average for that month -- this has effect of smoothing out missing months with larger or smaller errors than average. Actual average errors for entries shown at end of data for those forecasters. Entrants with four or fewer forecasts are not ranked for average error. 

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ________ n __ TOTAL PTS ___ AVG ERROR (rank)__ Sep fcst, score (rank)

_01 __ 01 ___ snowray _____________10 ___ 74.17 ________ 23.58 ( 1 ) _ ( 2 ) ____ 62.0 __ 7.42 (15) 

_02 __ 02 ___ Leo97t _______________10 ___ 68.95 ________ 24.33 ( 2 ) _ ( 3 ) ____ 60.0 __ 6.86 (19) 

_03 __ 03 ___ Reef _________________ 10 ___ 67.25 ________ 25.85 ( 6 ) _ ( 7 ) ____ 61.0 __ 7.24 (16)

_04 __ 04 ___ bobd29 ______________10 ___ 66.83 ________ 24.45 ( 3 ) _ ( 9 ) ____ 78.5 __ 9.28 (5)

_05 __ 11 ___ Jeff C _________________10 ___ 63.80 ________ 27.17 (10) _ (18) ____ 85.0 __ 9.64 (3)

_06 __ 12 ___ Summer Shower______ 9 ___ 63.27 _________24.49* ( 4 )__(t4) ____ 85.0 __ 9.54 (4) __*22.34 actual

_07 __ 10 ___ Weather Observer ___10 ___ 63.20 ________ 27.53 (13) _ (15) ____ 72.0 __ 8.72 (8) 

_08 __ 07 ___ February1978 ________10 ___ 63.15 ________ 27.43 (12) _ (14) ____ 68.0 __ 8.15 (10) _11 lev 

_09 __ 05 ___ Mulzy ________________10 ___ 61.56 ________ 28.07 (15) _ (10) ____ 55.0 __ 4.70 (30)

_10 __ 13 ___ virtualsphere ________ 10 ___ 61.21 ________ 27.05 ( 8 )_ (t12) ____ 71.0 __ 8.53 (9) 

_11 __ 06 ___ jonboy _______________10 ___ 59.76 ________ 28.95 (17) _ (11) ____ 49.0 __ 3.00 (40)

_12__t15 ___ DR(S)NO _____________ 10 ___ 59.15 ________ 29.29 (19) _ (16) ____ 60.0 __ 6.76 (20)

_13 __ 21 ___ Emmett Garland _____10 ___ 58.99 ________ 27.87 (14) _ (22) ____ 87.0 __ 9.82 (2)

_14 __ 19 ___ seaside60 ____________ 10 ___ 57.88 ________ 32.19 (28) _ (30) ____ 59.0 __ 6.24 (22)

_15 __ 23 ___ J 10 ___________________ 10 ___ 56.95 ________ 28.87 (16) _  (20)____ 70.0 __ 8.04 (11)_v_ 

_16 __ 09 ___ Polar Gael ____________10 ___ 56.86 ________ 31.10 (22) _ (19) ____ 47.0 __ 2.14 (44)

_17 __ 25 ___ summer18 ___________ 10 ___ 56.82 ________ 27.27 (11) _ (21) ____ 92.0 __10.00 (1)

_18 __ 08 ___prolongedSnowLover _10 ___ 56.47 ________ 27.09 ( 9 ) _ ( 6 ) ____ 46.1 ___1.74 (45)

_19 __ 14 ___ Stationary Front _____ 10 ___ 56.33 ________ 29.15 (18) _(t12) ____ 50.0 __ 3.90 (35)

_20 __t15 ___ Midlands Ice Age ____ 10 ___ 55.39 ________ 32.25 (29) _ (27) ____ 50.0 __ 3.00 (39)_vv_

_21 __ 18 ___ dancerwithwings _____10 ___ 55.21 ________ 32.45 (30) _ (28) ____ 49.0 __ 3.10 (38)

_22 __ 22 ___ Roger J Smith _________10 ___ 54.92 ________ 26.33 ( 7 ) _ ( 8.) _____58.4 __ 5.98 (23) 

_23 __ 20 ___ Wold Topper _________ 10 ___ 54.13 ________ 31.33 (25) _ (24) ____ 53.0 __ 4.44 (31)

_24 __ 17 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 10 ___ 53.56 ________ 31.17 (23) _ (17) ____ 44.0 __ 1.34 (48)

_25 __ 24 ___ daniel* _______________ 10 ___ 53.50 ________ 33.63 (33) _ (32) ____ 56.0 __ 5.24 (28)

_26 __ 28 ___ I Remember Atl252 ___ 9 ___ 50.23 ________ 32.67*(32) _ (25) ____ 64.0 __ 7.60 (14) __ *actual 30.35

_27 __ 26 ___ Don __________________ 10 ___ 50.20 ________ 32.17 (27) _ (26) ____ 50.0 __ 3.80 (36)

_28 __ 32 ___ Mr Maunder __________10 ___ 49.29 ________ 33.77 (34) _ (35) ____ 66.0 __ 7.96 (12)

_29 _  29 ___ Weather26 ____________ 9 ___ 48.05 ________ 30.47*(21) _ (t4) _____ 56.0 __ 5.44 (26) __ *actual 25.54

_30 __ 27 ___ The PIT _______________10 ___ 47.51 ________ 36.23 (41) _ (36) ____ 50.0 __ 4.00 (34)

_31 __ 34 ___ Godber 1 _____________10 ___ 45.46 ________ 34.93 (36) _ (38) ____ 66.0 __ 7.86 (13) 

_32 __ 36 ___ shillitocettwo _________10 ___ 42.57 ________ 42.71 (50) _ (48) ____ 59.0 __ 6.34 (21)

_33 __ 35 ___ davehsug _____________10 ___ 42.46 ________ 36.73 (41) _ (41) ____ 58.0 __ 5.70 (25)

_34 __ 31 ___ noname_weather_____10 ___ 42.27 ________ 34.47 (35) _ (31) ____ 42.0 __ 0.84 (51)

_35 __ 30 ___ Mapantz ______________ 8 ___ 42.18 ________ 32.54*(31) _ (34) ____ no fcst __ *actual 34.34

_36 __ 33 ___ summer8906 __________6 ___ 40.68 ________ 25.20*( 5 ) _  ( 1 ) ____no fcst __ *actual 21.33

_37 __ 37 ___ rwtwm ________________10 ___ 39.00 ________ 38.37 (44) _ (44) ____ 49.0 __ 2.90 (41)

_38 __ 41 ___ SteveB ________________10 ___ 38.54 ________ 39.79 (46) _ (46) ____ 58.0 __ 5.80 (24)

_39 __ 38 ___ Methuselah ___________10 ___ 36.03 ________ 38.57 (45) _ (43) ____ 45.0 __ 1.54 (46)

_40 __ 43 ___ Neil N __________________9 ___ 40.15 ________ 40.25*(47) _ (40) ____ 55.0 __ 4.80 (30) __ *actual 36.41

_41 __ 48 ___ summer blizzard ______10 ___ 36.08 ________ 40.33 (48) _ (49) ___ 74.0 __ 8.91 (7) 

_42__ 39 ___ syed2878 _____________ 10 ___ 34.91 ________ 40.95 (49) _ (45) ____ 40.0 __ 0.34 (53)

_43 __ 40 ___ DiagonalRedLine ______ 6 ___ 33.52 ________ 31.86*(33) _ (33) ____ no fcst __ *actual 33.52

_44 __ 42 ___ Norrance ______________ 8 ___ 32.65 ________ 35.12*(42) _ (42) ____ no fcst __ *actual 37.56

_45 __ 45 ___ Frigid _________________ 10 ___ 32.19 ________ 45.09 (54) _ (50) ____ 42.0 __ 0.94 (50)

_46 __ 44 ___ freeze _________________ 5 ___ 31.95 ________ 30.36*(20) _ (29) ____ no fcst ___ *actual 31.92

_47 __ 46 ___ Metwatch ______________9 ___ 31.77 ________ 42.32*(52) _ (53) ____ 43.0 __ 1.14 (49) __ *actual 46.28

_48 __ 47 ___ stewfox ________________ 6 ___ 29.55 ________ 35.95*(40) _ (23) ___ no fcst __*actual 30.53

_49 __ 51 ___ Moorlander ___________10 ___ 28.87 ________ 44.67 (53) _ (52) ____ 50.0 __ 3.70 (37)

_50 __ 49 ___ SLEETY _________________ 7 ___ 27.10 ________ 35.83*(39) _ (37) ____ no fcst __ *actual 35.57

_51 __ 54 ___ B87 _____________________5 ___ 26.85 ________ 31.22*(24) _ (---) ____ 60.0 __ 6.96 (18) __ *actual 28.25

_52 __ 50 ___ Cymro _________________ 4 ___ 26.11 ________ 36.88 (---) _  (---) ____ no fcst

_53 __ 56 ___ chilly milly _____________10 ___23.76 ________ 52.50 (56) _ (55) ____ 55.0 __ 4.90 (29)

_54 __ 53 ___ catbrainz _______________6 ___ 21.88 ________ 38.17 (43) _ (49) ____ 41.0 __ 0.54 (52) __ *actual 43.14

_55 __ 52 ___ sunny_vale ____________ 7 ___ 21.81 _________ 41.92 (51) _ (39) ____ 25.0 __ 0.14 (54) __ *actual  40.61

_56 __ 57 ___ Earthshine _____________ 8 ___ 19.11 ________ 46.33 (53) _ (53) ____ 20.0 __ 0.00 (55) __ *actual 49.11

_57 __ 55 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _____ 5 ___ 19.01 ________ 35.71 (51) _ (51) ____ no fcst __ *actual 44.90

_58 __ 66 ___ Coventry Weather _____ 2 ____19.00 _________ 8.25 (---) _ (---) ____ 76.0 __ 9.10 (6) 

_59 __ 58 ___ Blast From the Past ____ 4 ___ 18.63 _________44.13 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_60 __ 59 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers __4 ___ 17.04 ________ 32.58 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_61 __ 60 ___ Weather Enthusiast91 __2 ___ 15.86 ________ 21.25 ( ---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_62__ t63 ___ AddicksFan1981 ________2 ____14.18 ________20.50 (---) _ (---) ____ 52.0 ___ 4.18 (38)

_63 __ 61 ___ Let It Snow! _____________3 ____14.06 ________ 51.47 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_64 __ 72 ___ Somerset Girl ___________2 ___ 14.02 _________19.50 (---) _ (---) ____ 60.0 __ 7.06 (17)

_78 __ --- ___ baddie ___________________1 ____ 5.34 ________ 33.00 (---) _ (---) ____ 58.0 __ 5.34 (27)

_87 __ --- ___ mazelike _________________1 ____ 2.80 ________ 42.00 (---) _ (---) ____ 49.0 __ 2.80 (42)

_93 __ --- ___ RJBingham ______________ 1 ____ 1.44 ________ 44.00 (---) _ (---) ____ 47.0 __ 1.44 (47) _vv_

(only September entrants are shown after 61th place in annual contest) 

(only entrants with 5-9 entries have an adjusted average error and actual average error shown to right)

=========================

 

(4.6) _(6.5) __ 1981-2010 average _____10 ___ 65.12 _______ 24.59 ( 4.1) _( 9.1) __ 77.2 __ 9.19 (5.5)

 (5.4) _(3.7) __ Consensus _____________ 10 ___ 63.58 _______ 28.99 (17.2) (14.7) __ 56.0 __ 5.44 (26)

(10.1)(17,5) _ 1991-2020 average _____10 ___ 60.99 _______ 25.90 ( 6.1) _( 9.9) __ 76.0 __ 9.10 (t6)

(12.9)(19.8) _ 1993-2022 average _____10 ___ 59.02 _______ 26.95 ( 7.9) _(14.6) __75.9 __ 9.08 (6.1)

___________________________

Edited October 19, 2023 by Roger J Smith
error in one total points noted in preparing update in Oct, now fixed

[Roger J Smith]

Analysis of scoring for recent normals and our consensus

 

_________________________________ Forecasts _______________ Errors ___________ Rank _______ 

"Robot" Forecaster _________ CET ___ EWP ___________ CET __ EWP ____ CET __ EWP 

1981-2010 average DEC ___ 4.5 ____ 97.4 ____________ +1.1 __-4.6 _____ 55 ___ 2.3

1981-2010 average JAN ___ 4.4 _____ 93.0 ____________ -0.8 __ -4.8 _____ 40 ___ 18.5

1981-2010 average FEB ___ 4.4 _____ 66.5 ___________ -2.1 __ +52.5 ____ 40 ___ 37.0

1981-2010 average MAR ___6.6 _____ 71.5 ___________ -0.4 __ -65.3 _____13 ___17.2

1981-2010 average APR ___ 8.5 _____ 64.8 ___________ -0.2 __ -12.1 _____11 ___ 23.2

1981-2010 average MAY __11.7 _____ 63.6 ___________ -0.8 __+20.1 _____50 ___ 24.6

1981-2010 average JUN ___14.4 _____ 66.3 ___________-2.6 __+16.3 _____44 ___ 44.2

1981-2010 average JUL____16.6 _____ 67.3 ___________+0.5 __-62.2 ______ 6 ___ 28.4

1981-2010 average AUG __ 16.5 _____ 75.6 ___________ 0.0 __ +0.6 _______3 ___ 0.8*

1981-2010 average SEP ___ 14.0 _____ 77.2 ___________-3.0 __-13.8 ______58 ___5.5

*rank 0.8 for AUG EWP was better than all forecasters (error 0.6, their low error 2.0).  For CET I rounded 16.45 (1981-2010 value now in v2.0.1.0) up to 16.5. Even so, 1981-2010 was clearly a very accurate forecast of Aug 2023. 

----------------

1991-2020 average DEC ___ 4.8 ____103.6 ____________ +1.4 __+1.6 _____ 63 ___ 0.4

1991-2020 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 94.2 _____________ -0.5 __ -3.6 _____ 28 ___ 17.8

1991-2020 average FEB ___ 5.0 _____ 72.4 _____________ -1.5 __ 58.4 ____ 39 ___ 40.3

1991-2020 average MAR ___6.7 _____ 65.4 _____________ -0.3 __-71.4 ____11 ___ 30.6

1991-2020 average APR ___ 9.0 _____ 63.2 _____________ +0.3 __-13.7 ____16 ___ 25.1

1991-2020 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 62.7 ______________-0.6 __ 19.2 ____42 ___ 21.1

1991-2020 average JUN ___ 14.6 ____ 70.5 ______________ -2.4 __20.5 ____ 50 ___ 47.2

1991-2020 average JUL ____16.8 ____ 72.0 ______________ +0.7__-57.5_____10 ___ 22.0

1991-2020 average AUG ___16.6 ____ 82.3 ______________+0.2 __ +7.3 _____ 6 ____ 9.6

1991-2020 average SEP ___ 14.2 ____ 76.0 ______________-2.8 __-15.0 _____ 56 ___ 6.0

---------------

1992-2021 average DEC ___ 4.9 ____105.5 _____________ +1.5 __+3.5 _____ 65 ___ 0.9

1993-2022 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 95.4 _____________ -0.5 __ -2.4 _____ 28 ___ 13.5

1993-2022 average FEB ___ 5.1 _____ 74.9 _____________-1.4 __ +60.5 ____ 36 ___ 41.4

1993-2022 average MAR ___ 6.7 _____63.6 _____________-0.3 __ -73.2 ____ 11 ___ 32.7

1993-2022 average APR ____8.9 _____59.8 _____________ +0.2 __-17.1 ____ 11 ___ 32.2

1993-2022 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 66.6 _____________ -0.6 ___ 23.1 ____ 42 ___ 29.8

1993-2022 average JUN ____14.7 ____ 69.5 _____________-2.3 ___ 19.5 ____ 49 ___ 45.8

1993-2022 average JUL ____ 16.9 ____ 70.5 ____________ +0.8 __ -59.0_____ 14 ___ 22.7

1993-2022 average AUG ___ 16.6 ____ 79.9 ____________ +0.2 __ +4.9 ______ 6 ____ 2.9

1993-2022 average SEP ____ 14.3 ____ 75.9 ____________ -2.7 __ -15.1 _____ 56 ___ 6.1

-----------------

consensus DEC ____________ 3.5 ____ 63.0 ______________ +0.1 __-39.0 _____ 04 __ 39.0

consensus JAN _____________5.1 ____ 99.5 _______________-0.1 __ +1.7 _____ 1.5 __ 5.9

consensus FEB ____________ 5.4 ____ 65.0 _______________-1.1 __ +51.0 ____ 29 ___ 31.0

consensus MAR ___________ 5.9 ____ 67.0 _______________-1.1 __ -69.8 ____ 27 ___ 25.0

consensus APR ____________ 9.0 ____ 65.0 _______________+0.3 __-11.9 ____ 16 ___ 20

consensus MAY ____________12.3 ___ 65.0 _______________-0.2 __ 21.5 _____ 23 ___ 25

consensus JUN _____________15.4 ___ 50.0 _______________-1.6 __ +1.2 _____26 ___ 11

consensus JUL _____________ 17.6 ___ 68.0 ______________ +1.5 __-61.5 ____ 30 ___ 27

consensus AUG ____________16.8 ___ 82.7 ______________ +0.4 __ +7.7 ____ 16 ____10

consensus SEP _____________15.5 ___ 56.0 ______________ -1.5 __ -35.0 ____ 30 ____26

=======================

1981-2010 mean of 10 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.15 __24.59 ___ 33 ___ 4.1

1991-2020 mean of 10 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.05 __25.90 ___ 34 ___ 6.1

1993-2022 mean of 10 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.04 __26.95 ___ 34 ___ 7.9

consensus mean of 10 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.79 _ 28.99 ____ 22 __ 17.2

(note mean of errors is mean of absolute errors, not actual errors)

(mean of actual errors is "bias" of forecasts and is around -1.0 for 1981-2010 and -0.7 for 1991-2020, and is currently -0.33 for our consensus, meaning on average our consensus forecasts were 0.33 below outcomes but normals were 0.7 to 1.0 below outcomes ... it's a different measure of consensus being a bit better compared to normals).

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ANALYSIS: For CET, September widened gap between consensus and normals, as our consensus gained more ground and moved into a statistically significant position relative to the random aspect of normals. For EWP, the trend moved in opposite direction with normals gaining further on their August advantage over consensus. So in other words, most of us are making skilled forecasts of CET but not EWP where using normal values would improve our scores. In fact, only top 3 or 4 EWP forecasters are improving on normals, while top two-thirds of the CET contest field achieve at least some improvement over normals. 

[Earthshine]

13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Analysis of scoring for recent normals and our consensus

 

_________________________________ Forecasts _______________ Errors ___________ Rank _______ 

"Robot" Forecaster _________ CET ___ EWP ___________ CET __ EWP ____ CET __ EWP 

1981-2010 average DEC ___ 4.5 ____ 97.4 ____________ +1.1 __-4.6 _____ 55 ___ 2.3

1981-2010 average JAN ___ 4.4 _____ 93.0 ____________ -0.8 __ -4.8 _____ 40 ___ 18.5

1981-2010 average FEB ___ 4.4 _____ 66.5 ___________ -2.1 __ +52.5 ____ 40 ___ 37.0

1981-2010 average MAR ___6.6 _____ 71.5 ___________ -0.4 __ -65.3 _____13 ___17.2

1981-2010 average APR ___ 8.5 _____ 64.8 ___________ -0.2 __ -12.1 _____11 ___ 23.2

1981-2010 average MAY __11.7 _____ 63.6 ___________ -0.8 __+20.1 _____50 ___ 24.6

1981-2010 average JUN ___14.4 _____ 66.3 ___________-2.6 __+16.3 _____44 ___ 44.2

1981-2010 average JUL____16.6 _____ 67.3 ___________+0.5 __-62.2 ______ 6 ___ 28.4

1981-2010 average AUG __ 16.5 _____ 75.6 ___________ 0.0 __ +0.6 _______3 ___ 0.8*

1981-2010 average SEP ___ 14.0 _____ 77.2 ___________-3.0 __-13.8 ______58 ___5.5

*rank 0.8 for AUG EWP was better than all forecasters (error 0.6, their low error 2.0).  For CET I rounded 16.45 (1981-2010 value now in v2.0.1.0) up to 16.5. Even so, 1981-2010 was clearly a very accurate forecast of Aug 2023. 

----------------

1991-2020 average DEC ___ 4.8 ____103.6 ____________ +1.4 __+1.6 _____ 63 ___ 0.4

1991-2020 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 94.2 _____________ -0.5 __ -3.6 _____ 28 ___ 17.8

1991-2020 average FEB ___ 5.0 _____ 72.4 _____________ -1.5 __ 58.4 ____ 39 ___ 40.3

1991-2020 average MAR ___6.7 _____ 65.4 _____________ -0.3 __-71.4 ____11 ___ 30.6

1991-2020 average APR ___ 9.0 _____ 63.2 _____________ +0.3 __-13.7 ____16 ___ 25.1

1991-2020 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 62.7 ______________-0.6 __ 19.2 ____42 ___ 21.1

1991-2020 average JUN ___ 14.6 ____ 70.5 ______________ -2.4 __20.5 ____ 50 ___ 47.2

1991-2020 average JUL ____16.8 ____ 72.0 ______________ +0.7__-57.5_____10 ___ 22.0

1991-2020 average AUG ___16.6 ____ 82.3 ______________+0.2 __ +7.3 _____ 6 ____ 9.6

1991-2020 average SEP ___ 14.2 ____ 76.0 ______________-2.8 __-15.0 _____ 56 ___ 6.0

---------------

1992-2021 average DEC ___ 4.9 ____105.5 _____________ +1.5 __+3.5 _____ 65 ___ 0.9

1993-2022 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 95.4 _____________ -0.5 __ -2.4 _____ 28 ___ 13.5

1993-2022 average FEB ___ 5.1 _____ 74.9 _____________-1.4 __ +60.5 ____ 36 ___ 41.4

1993-2022 average MAR ___ 6.7 _____63.6 _____________-0.3 __ -73.2 ____ 11 ___ 32.7

1993-2022 average APR ____8.9 _____59.8 _____________ +0.2 __-17.1 ____ 11 ___ 32.2

1993-2022 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 66.6 _____________ -0.6 ___ 23.1 ____ 42 ___ 29.8

1993-2022 average JUN ____14.7 ____ 69.5 _____________-2.3 ___ 19.5 ____ 49 ___ 45.8

1993-2022 average JUL ____ 16.9 ____ 70.5 ____________ +0.8 __ -59.0_____ 14 ___ 22.7

1993-2022 average AUG ___ 16.6 ____ 79.9 ____________ +0.2 __ +4.9 ______ 6 ____ 2.9

1993-2022 average SEP ____ 14.3 ____ 75.9 ____________ -2.7 __ -15.1 _____ 56 ___ 6.1

-----------------

consensus DEC ____________ 3.5 ____ 63.0 ______________ +0.1 __-39.0 _____ 04 __ 39.0

consensus JAN _____________5.1 ____ 99.5 _______________-0.1 __ +1.7 _____ 1.5 __ 5.9

consensus FEB ____________ 5.4 ____ 65.0 _______________-1.1 __ +51.0 ____ 29 ___ 31.0

consensus MAR ___________ 5.9 ____ 67.0 _______________-1.1 __ -69.8 ____ 27 ___ 25.0

consensus APR ____________ 9.0 ____ 65.0 _______________+0.3 __-11.9 ____ 16 ___ 20

consensus MAY ____________12.3 ___ 65.0 _______________-0.2 __ 21.5 _____ 23 ___ 25

consensus JUN _____________15.4 ___ 50.0 _______________-1.6 __ +1.2 _____26 ___ 11

consensus JUL _____________ 17.6 ___ 68.0 ______________ +1.5 __-61.5 ____ 30 ___ 27

consensus AUG ____________16.8 ___ 82.7 ______________ +0.4 __ +7.7 ____ 16 ____10

consensus SEP _____________15.5 ___ 56.0 ______________ -1.5 __ -35.0 ____ 30 ____26

=======================

1981-2010 mean of 10 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.15 __24.59 ___ 33 ___ 4.1

1991-2020 mean of 10 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.05 __25.90 ___ 34 ___ 6.1

1993-2022 mean of 10 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.04 __26.95 ___ 34 ___ 7.9

consensus mean of 10 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.79 _ 28.99 ____ 22 __ 17.2

(note mean of errors is mean of absolute errors, not actual errors)

(mean of actual errors is "bias" of forecasts and is around -1.0 for 1981-2010 and -0.7 for 1991-2020, and is currently -0.33 for our consensus, meaning on average our consensus forecasts were 0.33 below outcomes but normals were 0.7 to 1.0 below outcomes ... it's a different measure of consensus being a bit better compared to normals).

-----------------------------------------------------------------

ANALYSIS: For CET, September widened gap between consensus and normals, as our consensus gained more ground and moved into a statistically significant position relative to the random aspect of normals. For EWP, the trend moved in opposite direction with normals gaining further on their August advantage over consensus. So in other words, most of us are making skilled forecasts of CET but not EWP where using normal values would improve our scores. In fact, only top 3 or 4 EWP forecasters are improving on normals, while top two-thirds of the CET contest field achieve at least some improvement over normals. 

That's amazing, won't be long until the 30 year mean for July gets to 17°C I reckon.

[Don]

8 hours ago, Earthshine said:

That's amazing, won't be long until the 30 year mean for July gets to 17°C I reckon.

2001-2030 average?!

[Dancerwithwings]

Just now, Don said:

2001-2030 average?!

2021 - 2070 below average

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

2021 - 2070 below average

What you on about?!  

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, Don said:

What you on about?!  

The truth regarding climate change…..data readings we’ll see in 50 years from now 

But maybe, we won’t be around to see it Don

[reef]

9 hours ago, Earthshine said:

That's amazing, won't be long until the 30 year mean for July gets to 17°C I reckon.

Winter is the true shocker. It'll have a mean of 5.0C before long. Between 1951 and 1987 only 5 winters were above that figure.

And 6 in the last 10 years.

Essentially, when the new average comes out, it's likely a winter equal to the most recent 30 year average will put it in the top 50 in the CET series.