September 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

 

CET averages and extremes

(all September mean CET 1981-2022 shown, warmest 13 in bold, middle 14 bold italic, coolest 15 italic underlined). 

(all data in table is now CET v2.0.1.0, 2006 gained 0.1 from previous v2.0 tables ... it appears to be the only September mean changed ... these changes are apparently due to rounding or calculation protocols as daily values seem to remain same from v2.0 to v2.0.1.0. )

 

22.4 ... warmest day (4th, 1949) _ in CET legacy this was 22.6 (2nd 1906 _ now 22.3 in v2.0)

21.4 ... warmest day in second half (21st, 2006)

16.9 ... warmest September (2006)

16.6 ... second warmest (1729)

16.3 ... third warmest (tied 1865 and 1949)

16.1 ... 5th warmest 2016

16.0 ... tied 6th warmest (1795, 2021) _ 2021 is 6th in two decimals

15.7 ... 8th warmest (1760)

15.6 ... 9th warmest (tied with 1780) 1999

15.4 ... 11th warmest (1895)

15.3 ... tied 12th warmest (1929, 1730, 1731) _ only recent years shown in following entries 

15.2 ... 2005

15.1 ... 2011, 2014

15.0 ... (last occurrence 1708)

14.9 ... 2004

14.8 ... 1998, 2000

14.7 ... (last occurrence 1858)

14.6 ... 1985, 1989, 1991

14.5 ... (last occurrence 1941)

14.4 ... average 2001-2022 ... and 1981, 2002, 2022

14.3 ... average 1993-2022, ... and 2003, 2009, 2019

14.2 ... average 1991-2020,  and 1997

14.1 ... 1982

14.0 ... average 1981-2010  and 1821-1850 (!!) ... 2020

13.9 ... 2007

13.8 ... 2010

13.7 ... average 1971-2000, 1983, 2013, 2018

13.6 ... average 1961-1990, also 1984, 1987, 1995, 1996, 2017

13.5 ... average 1701-1800, 1901-2000, also 2008 

13.4 ... 2001

13.36... average all 354 years 1659-2022 (rounds to 13.4)

13.3 ... 1992

13.2 ... 1988, 1990

13.1 ... average 1801-1900 ... (most recent occurrence 1960)

13.0 ..  2012

12.9 ... (most recent occurrence 1963)

12.8 ... (most recent occurrence 1940)

12.7 ... 1994, 2015

12.6 ... average 1659-1700 ... (most recent occurrence 1962)

12.5 ... (most recent occurrence 1957)

12.4 ... (most recent occurrence 1905)

12.3 ... 1993

11.3 ... coldest since 1952 and tied (with 1829) 14th coldest (1986)

11.2 ... tied twelfth coldest (1860, 1877)

11.1 ... tied tenth coldest (1840, 1912)

11.0 ... tied seventh coldest (1672, 1687, 1691)

10.7 ... coldest September since 1807 and sixth coldest (1952)

10.6 ... fifth coldest (1703)

10.5 ... coldest (four tied, 1674,1675,1694,1807)

 6.7 ... coldest days in first half (13th and 14th, 1807)

 4.9 ... coldest day (28th, 1824)

____________________________________________________________________

Enter by the end of Thursday, 31 August without penalty, or with increasing late penalties to end of Sunday, 3rd September.

(add your EWP forecast if you wish, to the CET entry) ...

============================================================================

 

EWP data 1766 to 2022

 

189.8 mm __ wettest September 1766-2022 (1918)*

139.9 mm __ wettest September 1981-2022 in 1981 

102.0 mm __ wettest 30-year avg (1772-1801)

 80.9 mm ___ average all data 1766-2022

 77.2 mm __ average 1981-2010

 76.0 mm __ average 1991-2020

 75.9 mm __ average1993-2022

 58.4 mm __ lowest 30-year avg (1888-1917)

 16.4 mm __ driest September 1981-2022 in 2014.

  _8.0 mm __driest September 1766-2022 in 1959**

_________________________________________________

* 1797 and 1799 were almost as wet at 185.4 mm and 186.8 mm.

** second driest since 1766 was 9.5 mm in 1865.

__________________________________________________

Recent EWP __ 2022...90.4 ___ 2021...67.7 ___ 2020...56.1 ___ 2019 ..124.0 ___ 2018 .. 67.0 ___ 2017 .. 106.2 __ 2016 .. 72.0 ___ 2015 .. 62.7 ___

____ ____ ____ 2014 .. 16.4 ____ 2013 .. 61.8 ___ 2012 .. 92.8 ___ 2011 .. 57.0 ___ 2010 .. 86.9 ___ 2009 .. 34.0 ___ 2008 ... 103.6 __ 2007 .. 48.9 ___

Enter the EWP contest on same deadlines as CET 

... good luck !! ... 

Edited August 25, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Polar Gael]

13.9°C and 47.0mm for me please.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

13.8 and 52mm of rain.   

[Catbrainz]

Going for 15.3c and 41mm. Poor summers tend to be followed by decent Septembers at least from personal experience. 

[Earthshine]

15.8C and 20mm please

[Don]

30 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

15.8C and 20mm please

No, not over 15.0C please!  

[Weather26]

15.0 And 56 mm please.

[Methuselah]

I'll guess at 15.2C and 75mm please, Roger.

[chilly milly]

13.8c and 55mm please

[Somerset girl]

14.7C and 60mm please . 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Trough dominated, 14.6C, 108mm

[Bobd29]

Hi, 14.5C and 78.5mm for me please.

[Shillitocettwo]

   Given July and August have both been poor weather wise (despite global warming ensuring temperature wise they have been averageish) this often means a good September. While I don't see this one breaking any records, it will still be quite summer like in places with a few decent mid 20s days however a very autumnal end will see it just miss 16.0.C so 15.9.C and 59mm please 

Edited August 22, 2023 by Shillitocettwo

[Typhoon John]

14.7c please

[B87]

14.6c and 60mm

[CoventryWeather]

15.6 and 76mm. Expecting a relatively warm but some wetter interludes, but relatively average.

[Sun Chaser]

15.5 and 48mm.

Somewhere between the warm and sometimes hot 2016/2021 and the pleasant 2014. Will start mixed but from the second week will be settled and warm with some extent of Indian summer in the late month. Driest one since 2014 as we're due a dry September now. A change from recent Septembers which have seen a rapid deterioration at the equinox

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Upping my guess to 14.5 now.    

[Summer18]

14.2 & 92mm

[emmett garland]

Oh jaysus here we go 15.5 and 87mm please Roger

[sunny_vale]

17.1C and 25mm why not!

[JeffC]

14.5 C and 85 mm please

[SteveB]

15.9c and 58mm please

[Dancerwithwings]

So tempted, but not just yet…..I’ll wait

[Leo97t]

14.6c and 60mm