Global interconnected weather - Model Output, Pattern Drivers plus Impact worldwide

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 04/09/2023 at 22:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

OK let's start with a look into the dynamics involved with the pattern evolutions over multiple European countries.

Think of an analogy like putting a stopper in a bath, keeping the tap running, eventually with time this causes the water to fold / break over the  

Essentially we're getting a double RWB event each event has different characteristics with our current setup taking on a classic TRT [Trough>>Ridge>>Trough] look, however a single RWB event doing double breaking is pretty rare especially the conditions which have occurred thus far plus the rare setup yet to unfold, more on this shortly.

Multiple very important developing situations to watch here, I'll start with the evolutions following the Spanish wave breaking low. Interesting here as we draw our focus to Franklin 

Note there will be a merger taking place 

My big question is will this be a warm core which would maintain the tropical status of Franklin

This looks the most probable as Franklin's core is the dominant one and that's giving a legit TC meandering near to Portugal 2023 weather bingo card continues to deliver 

Now 95L ie developments involving Lee a worrying early trend He will have full scope across the MDR with an accompanying CCKW which will aid cyclogenisis. 

Currently I'm expectant to have Lee, Margot and the aforementioned Franklin all active come this weekend

We'll see how this trend evolves but definitely a worrying scenario which depends on 2 high pressure zones 

• One moving down from Canada
• Another west of Franklin / within the Atlantic

A Sandy style path is definitely within reason

The dynamical evolutions we see appearing were always coming you've got to factor us seeing a stagnating MJO for a month + via phases 8&1, I highlighted the next cycle getting on the go into week 1 of September... lo and behold the amplified tendency activated in the here and now

Joining all that action above is the upstream of the TRT scenario which leads to a Tropical Cyclone in this area via the Ionian Sea -- Mediterranean 

I have multiple zones I'm worried for substantial flood situations 

Iceland

Norway

Greece

Trends continue emerging with the gradual progression of the less amplified setup as September gets into the weeks 3-4 which I'd mentioned as my expectations

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

We'll see how this trend evolves but definitely a worrying scenario which depends on 2 high pressure zones 

• One moving down from Canada
• Another west of Franklin / within the Atlantic

A Sandy style path is definitely within reason

New GEPS we can already get the idea providing a good % of chance having Lee getting pulled toward the trough 

Good amount of ENS members trending towards Virgina Beach to Delaware with a second group further north ie Sandy style 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 06/09/2023 at 21:01, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Joining all that action above is the upstream of the TRT scenario which leads to a Tropical Cyclone in this area via the Ionian Sea -- Mediterranean 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Really exciting output currently looks like a legit chance to witness some Fujiwhara as we'll have Lee and Margot in close proximity and intriguing possibilities lie ahead with Nigel 

GEM 

We have one scenario of a high extending nearer to the east coast of America which stops Nigel traversing towards that path.

GFS 

The more concerning outcome with the high not developing in that zone which gives Nigel every opportunity to go the Sandy evolution 

What's of interest to me when filtering in Ninò to the phase 3 which has increased amplification...

 

We already see this pattern of phases 2>3 coming to fruition by 2-3 weeks time. Goes superbly with my expectation

 

On 31/08/2023 at 19:57, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Want to start with this post from over a MONTH ago.

I'm extremely pleased how this has materialised, most members regularly keeping tracks on my posts know I normally look to the next 2 weeks but the signals were prominent for a monthly outlook and I'd say I done a good job especially given its already been an unusual and historical season in multiple areas of meteorology. 

I'd mentioned about how phase 1 had already signposted its presence taking us through weeks 1>2 of September 

'Phase 1 already showing its hand through weeks 1-2 of September which fits with my expectation of the coming MJO cycle emerging with this."

 

 

Jump + 5 days as September arrives 

Couple of interesting focal areas

• Persistent Scandinavian High development 
• Trend in evolution to more of a dominance of Greenland Heights 
• Overall link ranging from Alaska across Siberia through Scandinavia >>> Uk >>> Atlantic >>> North America

 

I'm suspecting there is a bit of erroneous data in the MJO outlooks with the OBS matching my expected scenario much better with a clean travel into phase 2 

comparing with model data a truly evolution I mentioned in my global output thread the August 8-1-8-1 was highly abnormal however IF that was true that'd be something along the line of 8-1-8-1-7-6 

Anywayy phase 2 dynamical setups continues to be my focus and goes nice with current outputs as shown above 

I'm expectant of a trough emerging in the extended outputs most likely into the latter stage of September [potentially some elongation through the Atlantic with possible effects for the UK and an outside bet on a late plume should favourable alignment occur with residual Scandinavia high] could have similar time arrival with the increased Greenland pressure. 

 

^Reminder the atmosphere state hasn't fully coupled with Ninò hence there are always a few differentials though the key developments can still be seen.

GEPS thinking along my expectations 

It is fantastic seeing this transition and a re arrival of summer style conditions which I want to refer to what I discussed in this post which is also over a MONTH ago

'The MJO is one of the biggest contributing teleconnections in the development of  weather patterns globally, I think that's another massive problem with the members who only say 'summers over' 'groundhog day' 'never changing setup' etc and 99% they never provide ANY charts or relevant info. Thinking the patterns over a broadscale will shift at the drop of a hat ain't gonna happen,with a slow pace of MJO of late, an increasingly imprinting Ninò an emerging MJO cycle of SUPER importance tied to Ninò peak C and hurricane developments in the balance the atmosphere requires time to fully process these developments and thus equal patience remains a requirement in regard to the process of trough and unsettled weather for the UK and Scandinavia in particular toward that of a high which I've spoke about.'

 

 

'I'm expectant of a trough emerging in the extended outputs most likely into the latter stage of September [potentially some elongation through the Atlantic with possible effects for the UK and an outside bet on a late plume should favourable alignment occur with residual Scandinavia high] could have similar time arrival with the increased Greenland pressure.'

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

23 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Very much on track with this

So what is developing beyond Wednesday

The 1st evolution connects to the same dynamics which have delivered a record flash flood in Massachusetts and Northeastern States 

As the energy of this event comes over to the UK we notice there will be a dip in a development within an emerging Jet Streak 

This classic NW--SE orienting low developments links nice with the continuing phase 1 evolutions 

Not quite as classic or prominent of a wave Breaking event which we've seen of late however it contains two areas to focus at 

1. Developing trough meanders from Northwest Spain toward the Portugese border
2. Dynamical evolutions linking within the entrance > exit regions with cyclogenis Ireland - UK 

Physical Background

RESOURCES.EUMETRAIN.ORG

Beyond and into later September there is certainly possibilities for a concerning synoptic pattern to become entrenched as the elongation of troughing from UK -- Atlantic begins to show its hand which I did mention as my expectations

Blocking as discussed prior has been consistent within model outlooks and notice the strengthening involved to the emerging trough continues to increase. VERY intriguing reasons involved with that.

Taking the 7 day precip outlook 

Week 1 as mentioned 

Into mid and latter Sept we need to be alert for impacts being heightened especially as Lee + Margot will be morphing and increased Jet Streak action begins 

I don't remember data being shown in such a fashion here is the precip data in week 2 onward,

Definite clear trend as the new emerging African wave any systems which occur will be directing associated energies and tropical dynamics feeding into and contributing to enhanced troughing as shown prior

Interesting that the first process is a nigh on PERFECT fit with Ninò September phase 3 

A summary for the Mid & Late September timeframe 

Synoptic setups fitting well to the Autumn 🌦 🌬

Probable multiple scenarios which bring heightened Wind + / or Rain-Flash Flooding situation

I definitely sense opportunity for potentially a few of the beginning Autumnal named storms 

LATE THURS & FRI 14TH --- 15TH SEPTEMBER 2023

Medium Impacts Ireland and into Southwest Scotland [Note Southeast Spain AND South France too]

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Just now, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

LATE THURS & FRI 14TH --- 15TH SEPTEMBER 2023

Medium Impacts Ireland and into Southwest Scotland [Note Southeast Spain AND South France too]

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Hurricane -- Ex Tropical Storm Lee

My expected pathway for Lee

Very unique movements here with Lee possibly a dual landfalling system

1. Pinkneys Point up into Cape Forchu with impacts through Yarmouth

2. Gooseberry Cove 

Big flash flooding rainfalls occuring in Maine, Nova Scotia AND New Brunswick 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 15/09/2023 at 16:10, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

AND South France too]

Simply mind blowing how the outflow associated to the MCS which began off the SE Spain coast led to a boundary which a storm became rooted along certainly had supercellular appearances, this has dumped over 520MM in around 12 hours particular bad area affected is ROQUEREDONDE

Hats off to the GEPS tho really pinpointed this region was likely to recieve flash flooding. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

21 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Hey @Downburst I was gonna adress this anyway and happened to see your post first. The EC was overall poor with the handling of Idalia and similarly erroneous on Lee in both track and particularly in regards to RI and overall cyclogenisis strength.

We see the UKMET AND EC were churning out overall high amounts of erroneous data for Lee whereas the GFS shown as AVNO was steadfast with a brilliant accuracy level even from +5 days in advance.

My view would be continue to have the highest trust in the GFS plus GEFS GEPS 

Here's the evolution from Now through Midweek - Thursday

First there is energy separation within said trough which leads to a low developing here in Fife

 

 

As the energy and development of this low increase into the overnight hours tonight this will see a rapid increase of precip rates within a front focusing in on West-Northern and Northwest Scotland. There will be a separate area seeing formation of thundery cells especially through SE England into East Anglia (same timing) this area I'd put within

 Medium Impacts

For the Scottish area mentioned I'd give at least medium but could extend to

 Severe Impacts

Lower probability with gusts but if the low deepens sufficiently increasing gusts in Southwest Scotland towards the Northeast corner could occur. 

And I am EXTREMELY concerned with the impacts occuring over a wide part of Scandi from Mid Monday but biggest worry is Kristiansand up to Grovane>Birkeland. 

️EXTREME Impacts

Slight breather during Tuesday but the next concerns arise for Wednesday and Thursday.

I've highlighted the development zones as energies from Greenland, Lee and a smidge of Margots energy all combine 

Fine details will become clear probably by Tuesday but the statement I made within my previous post very much coming to fruition 

'Into mid and latter Sept we need to be alert for impacts being heightened especially as Lee + Margot will be morphing and increased Jet Streak action begins'

Initial wind threat starts to appear and the Jet Streak

Main rain zones with this Weds Thursday development currently same areas as tonight for Scotland ie Northwest... Western... plus Northwest England, Wales and an interesting signal running across Southern England though not all data supports the latter just yet 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 11/09/2023 at 20:43, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Really exciting output currently looks like a legit chance to witness some Fujiwhara as we'll have Lee and Margot in close proximity

I am pretty certain this fits within Fujiwhara classified dynamics. They were certainly conjoined at a stage

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 18/09/2023 at 15:39, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Main rain zones with this Weds Thursday development currently same areas as tonight for Scotland ie Northwest... Western... plus Northwest England, Wales and an interesting signal running across Southern England though not all data supports the latter just yet 

Exact impacts over the regions mentioned 

On 19/09/2023 at 21:25, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 

Very satisfied seeing this play out pretty much as noted from almost a whole Month out

Got a whollllee bunch of stuff to discuss plus more interesting MJO movement.

Beginning with my post here 

We've seen these patterns coming to the fore over the past 2-3 weeks roughly and connected with the setups currently at play

'Trend in evolution to more of a dominance of Greenland Heights '

'Anywayy phase 2 dynamical setups continues to be my focus and goes nice with current outputs as shown above 

I'm expectant of a trough emerging in the extended outputs most likely into the latter stage of September [potentially some elongation through the Atlantic with possible effects for the UK and an outside bet on a late plume should favourable alignment occur with residual Scandinavia high] could have similar time arrival with the increased Greenland pressure. 

 

^Reminder the atmosphere state hasn't fully coupled with Ninò hence there are always a few differentials though the key developments can still be seen.'

So to the first interesting situation which lies in the MJO's recent movements 

Similarities with August in the fact we have seen this backward movement from the Maritimes back through at least part of the Indian Ocean. Taking the outlook in steps here we see the phase 4 dynamics setting up in roughly 1 week 

Now is the downright complex scenario as the re emerging phase 3 Indian Ocean section I believe a main reason this occurred was to essentially solidify the newly emerged +IOD 

What could unfold as we go into October?

These are the biggest development dynamical situations I'd be expectant to be occuring. Hazarding a date keep eyes around later of October Week 2 sometime around 10th - 13th

1. Elongation of European Heights start a gradual movement evolving to Scandinavia---Greenland 
2. New trough emerging close by most probably a smidge to the East then drifting to the UK 
3. I'm noticing that trend of low pressures through the United States trends show that eastern coastal Noreaster style as a possible setup

Mega concerning situation developing during Wednesday, ️EXTREME Impacts 

This area needs to remain extremely alert 

Textbook example with Sting Jet dynamical scenario developing 

 

Need to be mindful for tornadic development residing along the preceeding coldfront 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 22/09/2023 at 22:12, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

On cue the above synoptic situation has gotten a foothold.

If we look at the situation back during Tuesday here sets the scene of the coming weather occuring throughout this Saturday and all likelihood persists through next weekend too

Paying attention in this region with the trough ejection which then leads into interactions with Nigel 

So if we dive deeper into the dynamics within this cyclonic action one thing I'm noting off the bat is the wind field will be especially wide.

An important element involved is yet again a significant Rossby Wave Break Event will transpire 

 

 

Remember the EXTREME rain which affected Greece, Bulgaria + Turkey?... I'm MEGA worried we'll see this scenario reoccurring with biggest impact over Bosnia and Herzegovina  

NORTH MACEDONIA AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ITALY ALSO IMPACTED.

FOR US BACK TO SOUTHWESTERN, WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SCOTLAND

ADDITIONALLY NORWAY ONCE AGAIN.

Even on the temp anomalies it's clear watching this next cut off low developing 

It shouldn't be too surprising given we see the path of phase 3-4-3 continue for the time being and a reminder of the phase 3 patterns 

Impacts over Ireland and the UK will start late Saturday afternoon - early evening hours in combination with a strengthening Jet 

 

Concerns lie where an advancing warm front followed by a waving frontal boundary have the chance to develop a triple point 

FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT

WWW.THEWEATHERPREDICTION.COM

'There is a great amount of wind shear also near the triple point and fronts. Severe weather will often fire up ahead of the cold front, along the warm front and near the triple point where shear is enhanced. Below is a depiction of a low pressure system with the fronts and where the triple point is located."

 

As the boundary moves Northeastwards there is a rapid increase of shear 

This will need close observation as there will be multiple hazards which are possible

• Increased rainfall rates -- Flash Flood risks
• Evolution to a linear segment possible line Echo Wave Pattern
• Either QLCS spinups within the segment and or Significant Straight line winds [possible damage]

 

Ireland, Scotland most concerning zones to be impacted maybe Northeastern most England

The shift to a less wet synoptic pattern will take a bit of time however the first signs are appearing.

• High shifts from Canada into the North and Northeast USA which halts the flow where the troughing is originating ATM
• The slowing of MDR tropical activity makes total sense seeing we continue to have the MJO farthest away from Africa tho my intuitive hunch says that will increase as the next cycle gets moving.

 

Appears like a tropical wave becomes sandwiched between the 2 high pressure areas which *might feed enough energy to our present trough but signs of the less active scenarios at least coming in now.

 

On 26/09/2023 at 13:49, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Downright incredible performance once again from the CFS heres the week one outlook with the actual 500hpa

 

Great example where the downstream setup has a direct connection in intensifying the upstream. That Canadian high is nothing short of beastly wouldn't be one bit surprised to see Candian pressure readings having been at - near record strength for September under that.

 Pretty messy signals overall however I'm expectant for arrival to the Pacific by the MJO as October starts [8-10 days or so] 

Initial signs of an associated rise in Pacific activity showing with increased Atmospheric river possibilities toward Alaska

Taking where we are now 

Most rainfall and initial early autumn snows are honing in across the Pacific Northwest

 

with most of the southern branch of Northern Pacific having slowed in Cyclone development lately.

Now watch as the MJO begins to traverse into the Pacific. Rainfall anomalies increase which allows a track to begin and orientation curves northeastwards to Alaska with time 

This trend from high - low is also evident in the pressure data 

My eye is drawn to the continuing trough close to the Floridian Coastline plus that increased precip signal from Mexico into the GOM maybe the coast of Texas. These areas need to watch close for the next TS developments.

Decided to check the PNA data That looks like potentially record negative value definitely strongest negative we've seen dating back through the latter stage of 2021

 

To get the full dynamics which lead to the weather across the UK and Ireland from midweek lets rewind to Friday.

The CFS incredibly picked this precip area along the Carolina coast well in advance 

This had just enough time over the warmer SSTS to go from post tropical > tropical and eventual Ophelia

Now this is where the very beginning stage of our Weather from midweek begins as there is energy separation within the NE quadrant 

A small low moves through the Hudson Straight which becomes a new trough ejection remember I showed a similar evolution to the weekends windy conditions.

The combination between these 2 high energy zones then in turn creates the quick deepening and Cyclone development toward the UK and Ireland 

 

RI process will get underway by 6am Tuesday 

Min pressure likely a short distance from the Southwest Irish Coast in the 970s hpa

with a slight increase as the cyclone comes onshore. Central pressure over Ireland in the mid - higher 980hpas 

Severe Rain impacts will really ramp up from 00z Wednesday through the entire day on Wednesday. I see that zone from Castletown Bearhaven across Cork further northwards into Cashel possible flooding risk extending into Dublin

 

 Further flooding through Southwest West and Northwestern Scotland 

Similar to hurricanes the Northeast quadrant will see an increasing noteable tornado risk with SRH through the roof which moves through Scotland and chances a second band forming across the pennine routes 

With the pressure actually increasing upon reaching Ireland i expect this could slightly decrease any wind impact severity. I think the extremes will be in a narrowing swathe within the Irish Sea with greatest threat to land from these speeds being the same areas of highest rain amounts running across the south Irish Coast and far Northwest Wales

This shown here perfect running the Southern > Southeast zone of the cyclone

Easy to see why any wind and rain impacts will focus on Ireland and Scotland with highest probability [North of England and Wales included to an extent as discussed]

There is a swathe running SW---NE over the Southern UK being controlled as the European Heights increase whereas the other impacted areas are controlled within the embedded troughing. Nice Ridge build for Saturday through the UK as the European Heights become a Spanish High. Really nice example once more of how cut off lows develop as covered previously re the current RWB.

KW

 

 

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Looks like the pressure bottomed out at 973hpa in the area I mentioned. 

From the current time is where concerns will increase as the SRH begins to intensify and the cells are beginning to take a supercellular appearance on radar 

As mentioned it is the exact same principle 

Breakdown: Why the right side of a hurricane is the strongest

WWW.ACTIONNEWS5.COM

---

All sides of a hurricane can be dangerous but the right side tends to be the most dangerous and the strongest

 

In line with my predicted outcome for Agnes

Here's Met Éireann’s Meteorologist Liz Walsh with the latest updates...

FB.WATCH

---

Here's Met Éireann’s Meteorologist Liz Walsh with the latest updates on Storm Agnes For weather warning details, visit the Warnings page...

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 22/09/2023 at 22:12, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

An important element involved is yet again a significant Rossby Wave Break Event will transpire 

 

 

Remember the EXTREME rain which affected Greece, Bulgaria + Turkey?... I'm MEGA worried we'll see this scenario reoccurring with biggest impact over Bosnia and Herzegovina  

NORTH MACEDONIA AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ITALY ALSO IMPACTED.

FOR US BACK TO SOUTHWESTERN, WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SCOTLAND

ADDITIONALLY NORWAY ONCE AGAIN.

Even on the temp anomalies it's clear watching this next cut off low developing 

It shouldn't be too surprising given we see the path of phase 3-4-3 continue for the time being and a reminder of the phase 3 patterns 

 

 

 

"Remember the EXTREME rain which affected Greece, Bulgaria + Turkey?... I'm MEGA worried we'll see this scenario reoccurring"

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Increasing amplification to the setup across the US with a significant RWB event.

This sees a cut off low which slides through California bringing rain and Sierra Snowfalls

Some unique dynamic situations developing to the Low off the east coast which will be a blend of energy from a low from the Great Lakes and continuing Floridian troughing 

Very severe scenario coming for NY Connecticut NJ and I'm focusing within Long Island. Major flash flood event 

Temps across the west coast will be upto 20 degrees below Average

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

15 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Increasing amplification to the setup across the US with a significant RWB event.

This sees a cut off low which slides through California bringing rain and Sierra Snowfalls

Some unique dynamic situations developing to the Low off the east coast which will be a blend of energy from a low from the Great Lakes and continuing Floridian troughing 

Very severe scenario coming for NY Connecticut NJ and I'm focusing within Long Island. Major flash flood event 

Temps across the west coast will be upto 20 degrees below Average

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

23 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I'm focusing within Long Island.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 28/09/2023 at 21:52, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Temps across the west coast will be upto 20 degrees below Average

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 01/10/2023 at 18:40, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

As the calendar moves forward into October how have things developed since the above?

The major driving contributions continue to be the MJO as is always the case however as covered through my previous post. 

 

The PNA will be having major say in the evolution of 500hpa setups progressing through October

Beginning with the ensemble outlook in the post above 

And a mere 4 days on 

As is easy to spot there has been a MAJOR switch in the state of the upcoming PNA which I have to say is one of the biggest flips i've noticed in my 14 years viewing the model and teleconections outputs.  I believe one of the main reasons contributing to this is given how the current PNA progression has materialised into a significant Rossby Wave Break Event as I covered here 

The quicker trend to a strengthening positive PNA does make sense as if we connect the timing and associated 500hpa evolutions into recent 3-4-3-4-5 this strange MJO backward dynamics also playing a big role in this PNA behaviour IMO

 

 

W Ninò

 

 

Covers our conditions which occurred through September with multiple plume type scenario in the UK with accompanying severe thunderstorm activities, severe impacts originating as a result of MULTIPLE RWB Events with the cut off low composites being beautifully represented certainly from a meteorological lover view as said lows / cyclones developed into the Mediterranean and the great bullseye where hurricanes tracked through that Northeast corridor up into the Maritimes such as Lee -- Nova Scotia particularly noted that corresponding with phase 3 especially. Next and into as we are currently we've watched the European High extend westwards influences beginning for SE parts of the UK then the ridge build for today which then begins transitioning to a classic TRT trough--ridge--trough scenario.

What effects does a positive PNA see coming to the fore?

Starting with our configuration of the Jet as we sit ATM 

The PNA going to + connects with a strengthening of the Jet through Asia particularly East Asia which leads to a strong elongating trough in the far north of the northern pacific > Alaska as noted 

An additional part of this progression involves the emerging Subtropical Jet which I personally like to call the Nino Style Jet

referring to my previous post I stated 

My eye is drawn to the continuing trough close to the Floridian Coastline plus that increased precip signal from Mexico into the GOM maybe the coast of Texas. These areas need to watch close for the next TS developments.

And

Now watch as the MJO begins to traverse into the Pacific.

Spectacular enhanced cyclone development being outputed at the min heres the GEM but many models are incredibly on a similar scale 

Could see 6 or more simultaneous disturbance zones running along a VERY active tropical wave however clear signal of number 1 becoming the first to bring noteable severe conditions and my eye is looking close at the potential 2 separate disturbance zones at the far east side of the TW

Think of the situation how Hilary got going...

This being shown in the ENS so always looks flatter however a proper signal for a TS to go akin Hilary ... California take 2

Taking the changes and processes through the first half of October at the least.

Strengthening Asian and Pacific Jet Streak

Emerging Nino Style Jet

Awesome evolution into strong positive PNA 

Great watching this come into fruition here its easy seeing the flip 

Weve started generating a dominant setup which is coming through winter 23>>24

   

 

Phase 5 be coming 

 

 

Perfect showing which encapsulates the cycling from phase 3 to 4 too

 

 

 

23 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Its essentially becoming all systems go across multiple regions all at the same time as the MJO W +PNA ramp up in activities 

I'll begin at the less wet pattern which is occuring between this week and next 

I highlighted the troughing through North US and the Atlantic which are 2 big developments evolving to RWBs 

I'll try do it in stages with there being an absurd range of events occuring at one time

Ok first thats a darn impressive effort from more than 200 hours out 

So to first realise how the dynamical situations begin let's go back to the upstream low within the 1st RWB over in US which delivered record rain to NY and Long Island particularly which I covered in the global thread

Sat / Sun

Roughly Weds and Thursday 

Quite remarkable meteorology playing out here with a couple of familiar aspects which we've watched over the past 2 or so weeks with energies of Northeast state systems evolution and increased impacts into various UK areas

This time first part of the energy joins with troughing south of Greenland and a resulting Atmospheric river which brings further flooding issues for West Scotland and into the central belt perhaps Glasgow 

"My eye is drawn to the continuing trough close to the Floridian Coastline plus that increased precip signal from Mexico into the GOM maybe the coast of Texas. These areas need to watch close for the next TS developments.

my eye is looking close at the potential 2 separate disturbance zones at the far east side of the TW

Think of the situation how Hilary got going...

This being shown in the ENS so always looks flatter however a proper signal for a TS to go akin Hilary ... California take 2"

here's the way I invisage the trough through the GOM to develop. The lefthand cyclone still has a look of Hilary in the familiar path towards Baja whereas the right cyclone currently looks more poised on Mexican impact at least initially...

We've got good signals that come Weds Eve these 2 cyclones will have developed 

There are some big meteorological dynamics to figure out tho

There could be a window of opportunity for the left cyclone to meander close to Baja which occurs and helps the formation of the Nino Style Jet  

Getting a real vibe with this of a Hilary 2.0 PLUS Idalia 2.0 

Certainly fits into the expectations of a +PNA

Further east from midweek there is a window for the florida trough to merge with Philippe and just about manage to sneak in to Nova Scotia ahead of the upper level trough moving SE, at the same time we have the Atmospheric river as mentioned but further energy and trough ejection south of Greenland will have a significant direct input to the next evolution

Absolutely stunning Rossby Wave Break Event will transpire on from this

 

Anyone that tells you meteorology is boring get them looking at this upcoming setup alone

 

"Spectacular enhanced cyclone development being outputed at the min heres the GEM but many models are incredibly on a similar scale 

Could see 6 or more simultaneous disturbance zones running along a VERY active tropical wave however clear signal of number 1 becoming the first to bring noteable severe conditions and my eye is looking close at the potential 2 separate disturbance zones at the far east side of the TW

Errr

 

[matty40s]

 

 

Edited October 4, 2023 by matty40s

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 06/10/2023 at 01:57, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 

Starting in slightly different style I'll begin by using the NAVGEM which with the JMA are probably the lowest resolution but I certainly don't class any of the models as warmth 

Here the above dynamics have really played out come mid and latter Sun

Now we have a hyper active weekend of meteorological developments coming. Whilst Philippe zones toward Nova Svotia on the downstream end of the Rossby Wave Breaking, the cyclone which has already given an initial Atmospheric river to Scotland undergoes many dynamical situations 

Firstly as some energy separation occurs this sees a low flanking off, runs up over the influencing Ridge from Eu and UK then redevelopment [majorly] from Scandinavia and Southeast of Saint Petersburg particularly 

First major snowstorm which is occuring merely / barely weeks after record snow in Kiruna, Sweden oh I've missed you snow

️EXTREME Impacts 

Scotland Extreme Flash Flood Threat Maximising

Most of Scotland at Maximising levels of impact however MASSIVE zone sets in through West > West Central, South and parts of English Scottish Borders

As this same cyclone in the Atlantic undergoes pretty quick cyclogenisis the energy on the right side reinvigorating results in a new Atmospheric River which is also unable to adjust in direction due to the ridge through southern England which only acts to increase the impact

Observation is the snowstorm will be close to the minimum pressure which Agnes had in the 970hpas

 

• Trough Ejects 
• Fast Cyclogenisis 
• Energy separation 
• New EXTREME Atmospheric river 

This EXTREME IMPACT atmospheric river will begin Friday and be continuous until at least Monday Midday.

Why

If we take the winds at 925hpa there is a convergence zone which runs along the exact path of the energy noted in the gif above 

This showing how it remains rooted over at least a 5 hour period 

Totals by Sunday night bear in mind more following therafter...