Global interconnected weather - Model Output, Pattern Drivers plus Impact worldwide

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Further significant & severe cold outbreaks as troughing descends into the Middle East which will see temperatures at 850hpa and surface temperatures as much as 20 degrees below average moving across countries such as Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. This troughing also brings further significant snowfalls.

Similar to previous weeks as a new high descends out of Canada this will push the above average airmass currently across America away with below average temperatures swinging across the US and into Mexico.

Ahead of the Canadian high and associated with the above average airmass, as an area of low pressure moves across northern states this looks set to see the next flash flood risk from February 28th through the first days of March with first focus into Kentucky, Indianna and Ohio, this may also have an accompanying severe weather risk ie tornadoes.

During this timeframe we also have further significant precipitation and flash flood risks moving from the Pacific Northwest down across the west coast.

This is modelled to be a very significant event for the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest moving into higher elevations of California ie Sierras with HUGE snow amounts.

There is also potential for a big rainmaker running along the Gulf States into the first days of March though there isn't full agreement on this ATM.

 

The above average temperatures in Alaska will also switch to significantly cold and well below average again upto 20C values from the end of Feb into beginning of March.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

Important notes for the US heat records > THIS HAS OCCURED FOLLOWING A STRONG NEGATIVE PNA [STRONGEST VALUES OF THE ENTIRE WINTER] AND DURING A SUPER EL NINÒ.

 

 

 

*preliminary 

 

 

 

 

 

Following on to my post above

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As the cold air outbreak continues moving east with some interaction from the MJO which is currently moving across the Indian Ocean we'll have an intensification of the troughing which creates a significant and severe snowstorm which moves across Afghanistan,Tajikistan, Pakistan, North India into Nepal. Further severely cold temperatures again upto and perhaps exceeding 20 degrees below average.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 25/02/2024 at 19:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

This is modelled to be a very significant event for the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest moving into higher elevations of California ie Sierras with HUGE snow amounts.

 

On 25/02/2024 at 19:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

There is also potential for a big rainmaker running along the Gulf States into the first days of March though there isn't full agreement on this ATM.

 

On 28/02/2024 at 21:01, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

As the cold air outbreak continues moving east with some interaction from the MJO which is currently moving across the Indian Ocean we'll have an intensification of the troughing which creates a significant and severe snowstorm which moves across Afghanistan,Tajikistan, Pakistan, North India into Nepal. Further severely cold temperatures again upto and perhaps exceeding 20 degrees below average.

Part of this cold outbreak has moved across East Asia with cold records broken thus far 

 

Looks like another significant cold anomaly from the same episode will cross by March 9th - 10th

With somewhat of a similar pattern to weeks prior with cyclonic centres - cut off low developments being prominent toward the Alps this has produced mega snowfalls.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

Huge snowmaking system running across New Brunswick, Newfoundland and a bit in Nova Scotia.

Next significant risks of flash flooding will also be prominent as we switch into a +PNA

with multiple systems tracking across the East and Northeast portions of America - East Southeast Canadain Maritimes.

The 1st system will give widespread significant rains all the way from Florida & The Bahamas up the East Coast with a trend for highest rates between New Hampshire, Massachusetts > Nova Scotia.

 

 

The next system is further teleconnective feedback particularly the MJO as can be noted in my post on February 27th.

Similarities to previous weeks as a new High descends from Canada / the Pacific Northwest this gives a new significant cold air outbreak which links to recent MJO progression.

This system will bring new flash flood risks from more central states progressing East and Northeast with a trend ATM for a heightened risk between Alabama Georgia and Tennessee somewhere like Atlanta seems a higher risk area currently during Saturday.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

With ongoing feedback of recent MJO progression as discussed prior this leads into another significant cold air outbreak which descends from Russia through Kazakhstan and feeds into areas already dealing with prior outbreaks in Asia and the Middle East.

With multiple troughs in this setup this will produce multiple significant snow events with one beginning in Turkey and many events in the same regions which have already recieved huge snows very recently ie Iran, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, North India, Nepal, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Krgyzstan, with a particularly big event likely by the 13th of March.

Besides the significant flash flood risk which I discussed previously there are a few other significant synoptics in America & Canada.

One system will deliver significant snow into the Pacific Northwest some further accumulations down the west coast toward the Sierras but certainly nothing akin to the past week -> 10 days. This system could also bring some flash flooding at lower elevations.

The system bringing the significant flash flood threat across Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee etc will have significant snowfall on the northern and Northwestern flank across Eastern Canada and North Northeastern America. New Brunswick doing great again from this system too.

The system across the Pacific Northwest will become a cut off low into Southwestern America during the remainder of March week 2.

Signals emerging the next possible significant flash flood threat will emerge in roughly a weeks time across the Gulf States

Edited March 8 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Some records from this weeks patterns.

 

Significant record this one as it is an ALL TIME snowfall record very impressive to achieve in March 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Though the main part of the MJO has began crossing the Maritimes there will still be enough connecting energy within the Indian Ocean likely via Kelvin Wave[s] activity which will generate a cyclone (possibly tropical) in the Mozambique chanel, this will move into Mozambique in the next few days bringing significant rains and high flash flood risk before it recurves back into the Indian Ocean.

*Since typing this post this system has been given tropical storm classification with the name Filipo.

No real surprise seeing such an active pattern particularly across the Eastern portion of the Indian Ocean given the higher amplitude passage of the MJO.

This will generate further cyclones again these are likely to be tropical in nature with one close to the Northwestern Coast of Australia and at least one other which moves into the Arafura Sea and potentially sits in the waters with regions between Queensland and the Northern Territory.

Ahead of these cyclonic developments we have an ongoing significant rainfall event in Western Australia.

This will move around coastal Southern Australia with some signals for a renewal of intensity as it moves up the Southeast and East coastal regions perhaps Sydney at risk.

With the MJO continuing to move over the Maritimes at a high amplitude this will enhance the tropical convection bringing high rainfall amounts across parts of Southeast Asia and Melanesia.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

On 08/03/2024 at 20:50, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The system across the Pacific Northwest will become a cut off low into Southwestern America during the remainder of March week 2.

Busy setup I'll begin on the initial cut off low development.

Further West as this process gets underway there are a few big weather events with one being a high fire threat as the cut off low draws up drier air combined with higher winds.

This low will also produce a snow event across Colorado [significant accumulations here] also high amounts spreading into Utah, Arizona and New Mexico.

 

Further East Northeast and Southeast this low will draw up high PWAT values

bringing the next significant flash flood threats as discussed here

On 08/03/2024 at 20:50, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Signals emerging the next possible significant flash flood threat will emerge in roughly a weeks time across the Gulf States

This will be split into two distinct zones.

Southern risk.

Many states involved but highest totals across Arkansas, Louisianna, Mississippi ,Tennessee into Texas.

Northern Risk.

Looks to begin across Iowa, Missouri, Illinois with this expanding as it moves toward the Great Lakes with Wisconsin and particularly Michigan seeing higher totals, this moves into areas close to Lake Eerie.

Trends for a new significant flash flood risk continuing across Texas from Sunday - Monday this also moves into Louisianna.

Significant flash flood event becoming increasingly likely from March 18th - 23rd Approx as a cut off low develops and moves across parts of the Middle East accompanied by a strong Jet Streak which looks to increase precip intensity.

Main severe risk currently by March 19th & 20th close by the Iraq, Turkey and Iran border.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

On 11/03/2024 at 02:57, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Ahead of these cyclonic developments we have an ongoing significant rainfall event in Western Australia.

 

On 13/03/2024 at 20:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

This low will also produce a snow event across Colorado [significant accumulations here] also high amounts spreading into Utah, Arizona and New Mexico.

 

 

 

With feedback of recent MJO progression particularly February phases 2 and 3 there are some noteworth cold air outbreaks.

Canada and East Southeast America

South America, there will also be significant snowfalls across Chile and some in Argentina and Peru.

Another significant below average anomaly likely during March 18th - 23rd Approx as a slow moving cut off low moves across India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand bringing heavy rains.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 11/03/2024 at 02:57, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

No real surprise seeing such an active pattern particularly across the Eastern portion of the Indian Ocean given the higher amplitude passage of the MJO.

This will generate further cyclones again these are likely to be tropical in nature with one close to the Northwestern Coast of Australia and at least one other which moves into the Arafura Sea and potentially sits in the waters with regions between Queensland and the Northern Territory.

Models are really having a difficult time with this system which has been named Megan.

Still no real consistency on landfall timing and locale within the modelling with some having landfall around the Pellew Islands Tomorrow whereas a more easterly landfall is favoured by some including the GEM even into Tuesday.

As covered in recent posts with many cut off lows plus a main Tropospheric Vortex lobe moving into the Kara Sea and Russia this is an excellent pattern for multiple significant snowfall events and overall large snowfall coverage across parts of the Middle East, large swathes of Asia and Russia + Siberia during the next few weeks.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

^ Megan currently making landfall close to the most Eastern of the Pellew Islands she will make landfall on the mainland in the early hours of Monday around the Robinson River with severe flash flooding rains stretching from the Pellew Islands across the Northern Territory and Northwest > Northeast Queensland, she will also bring severe damaging winds again particularly close to the centre around the Pellew Islands into the Robinson River and still some significant winds as she moves westwards inland before gradually weakening although the severe rains will extend well inland and westwards.

There will also be significant flash flood potential from heavy rains / storms around the East Southeast Coastline including a strong front from a system moving into New Zealand.

The outer bands of Tropical Storm 18S will move into the Northwestern coastline of Western Australia in the next few days.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Some significant systems developing into America this week and beyond.

From Thursday 21st March through next Tuesday approx, a cut off low will develop across the Gulf States with an initial significant flash flood risk in Texas which then moves across the Gulf States ie Louisianna and Florida, as this cut off low connects at least for a time to the troughing in Canada and into the Great Lakes the significant flash flood risk will move up the East Coast with the Carolinas currently looking a higher risk area for flooding though a generalised threat across all of the Eastern coastal States into the Canadian Maritimes. This flash flood risk will also move into the Bahamas.

During Friday and into the Weekend a new system will move into the west coast with a new round of significant snowfall for the Sierras and the West > Northwestern States having a generally snowy & cold setup.

These patterns are feedback from recent MJO phases as discussed in various posts plus the MJO moving across the Pacific and this part of the globe in general during this timeframe.

As this system progresses East Northeastwards there is potential for a number of possible significant and severe weather events with a snowstorm on the northern and Northwestern flanks [Northern States] as it utilises the significant cold upper and surface level temperatures which are pulled in from Canada, and a significant flash flood risk paired to a potential severe weather outbreak on the Southern and Southeastern flanks across the heart of America progressing East and Northeast. Current timing is approximately March 24th through 29th.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 15/03/2024 at 21:59, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Another significant below average anomaly likely during March 18th - 23rd Approx as a slow moving cut off low moves across India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand bringing heavy rains.

 

"Incessant rain since the early hours of Wednesday brought down the maximum temperature in Kolkata by a whopping 13ºC below normal as the meteorological department forecast continued inclement weather in the city until Thursday.

Wednesday's maximum temperature in Kolkata was 21.1ºC, the department said. This is the second lowest maximum temperature recorded in March since 1970. The previous lowest maximum temperature was 20.3ºC recorded on 13 March 2003, the department said."

As part of these rains - cut off low energy moves North Northeast this will bring a flash flood risk initially from East China into Japan 

There is also a significant snow event ongoing from the China and Korea Border

As a new cut off low begins to develop this will bring a new flash flood risk with more of a northward area covering more of Korea and once again Japan, some of this could fall as snow.

On 19/03/2024 at 02:14, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

From Thursday 21st March through next Tuesday approx, a cut off low will develop across the Gulf States with an initial significant flash flood risk in Texas which then moves across the Gulf States ie Louisianna and Florida, as this cut off low connects at least for a time to the troughing in Canada and into the Great Lakes the significant flash flood risk will move up the East Coast with the Carolinas currently looking a higher risk area for flooding though a generalised threat across all of the Eastern coastal States into the Canadian Maritimes. This flash flood risk will also move into the Bahamas.

Good model consistency with this system and a trend for the troughing which moves across the Great Lakes and connects to the cut off low to produce a swathe of higher snowfall totals from Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois which moves across the Great Lakes and as the energy connection occurs the trend for a significant snow event continues to intensify toward Northeast America. 

One of the areas at risk of highest precip rates and higher flash flood risk continues to be through Maryland, Delaware, Philadelphia with particular focus into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island with this gradually continuing North Northeast into Maine.

On 13/03/2024 at 20:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Significant flash flood event becoming increasingly likely from March 18th - 23rd Approx as a cut off low develops and moves across parts of the Middle East accompanied by a strong Jet Streak which looks to increase precip intensity.

Main severe risk currently by March 19th & 20th close by the Iraq, Turkey and Iran border.

 

On 16/03/2024 at 18:44, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

As covered in recent posts with many cut off lows plus a main Tropospheric Vortex lobe moving into the Kara Sea and Russia this is an excellent pattern for multiple significant snowfall events and overall large snowfall coverage across parts of the Middle East, large swathes of Asia and Russia + Siberia during the next few weeks.

Turkey being one of the main regions seeing huge snowfall amounts as multiple cut off lows move through with the 1st being part of a Rossby Wave Break Event which I've discussed in a few posts 

 

Over the next 10 days a large swathe of Turkey will recieve significant amounts of snow with an area particularly toward the Southeast likely to see upwards of 100+ CM

As a new cut off low moves through parts of the Middle East and connects to the cut off low[s] and developing troughing in Turkey this will bring the next significant flash flood risk across similar areas to the recent event ie Iran and Iraq plus along their border during March 24th through 26th.

Some of this precip is likely to fall as snow in Iran.

Per recent MJO progression feedback and IOBW warm phase this will continue a cold > significantly cold temperature setup extending across Australia  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Increased pressure gradient due to a strong high to the South Southeast of South Africa will create a supportive moisture flow from the Mozambique Channel 

An increasing flash flood risk via this increased moisture into Mozambique particularly Southeast, South Mozambique extending into Eswatini and perhaps parts of Southeastern South Africa.

We also have a slow moving cyclone to the Northeast of Madagascar this will create a flash flood threat from Northeast Madagascar then extending across the Eastern portions of Madagascar.

Most of the above average temperatures are across the DRC with heavier showers and storms, this looks to continue with above average temperatures extending across Angola and Zambia significant in some parts also some heat into Botswana and Namibia with the areas discussed above being below average perhaps significantly so and also Southwest South Africa  

West and Northwest Madagascar also above average.

With ongoing feedback of a switch in SAM phase, a serious of systems will move across & near New Zealand during week 4 of March bringing substantial rainfalls particularly across West + Southwest New Zealand with an increased threat of flash flooding.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 19/03/2024 at 02:14, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

As this system progresses East Northeastwards there is potential for a number of possible significant and severe weather events with a snowstorm on the northern and Northwestern flanks [Northern States] as it utilises the significant cold upper and surface level temperatures which are pulled in from Canada, and a significant flash flood risk paired to a potential severe weather outbreak on the Southern and Southeastern flanks across the heart of America progressing East and Northeast. Current timing is approximately March 24th through 29th.

Further excellent consistency within the models.

Impressive storm with significant snowfall with a few areas trending for particularly high totals

• South Dakatoa and Nebraska especially near their border
• As the low continues toward Lake Superior areas close to the Lake.

Accompanying severe weather and flash flood threat progressing East, Northeast and Southeastwards with trends into a new low near the Carolinas coast into Thursday which might increase these threats.

This storm is pushing the snowfall as far South as Mexico with further snowfall potentially significant totals toward Chihuahua.

 

This storm will also draw up anomalously dry air when combining with gusty winds this brings the next fire risk.

 

 

On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Good model consistency with this system and a trend for the troughing which moves across the Great Lakes and connects to the cut off low to produce a swathe of higher snowfall totals from Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois which moves across the Great Lakes and as the energy connection occurs the trend for a significant snow event continues to intensify toward Northeast America. 

One of the areas at risk of highest precip rates and higher flash flood risk continues to be through Maryland, Delaware, Philadelphia with particular focus into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island with this gradually continuing North Northeast into Maine.

Recap of this systems impacts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Next cyclonic system moving into the Pacific Northwest and West Coast from Weds into Thursday bringing the next threat of low elevation flash flooding and the next snowfall event again high totals being signalled for the Sierras, this will transition into another system [cut off low] and move into SoCal during next weekend with low elevation flash flood threat and potential for snow at higher elevation.

 

As discussed in my post above the active pattern across Europe and Africa to name a few is continuing, this isnt too surprising given its combining recent MJO feedback paired with the MJO currently crossing this region of the globe which will further boost cyclonic development. We've got the cut off low from the Rossby Wave Break Event merging to new cyclonic developments in the Atlantic close to Ireland and further cyclonic developments feeding into this merger creating a deep cyclone again from the Atlantic close to & across Ireland. 

Lots of areas with flash flood risks at lower elevations and many snowfall events predominantly at higher elevations though not exclusively.

Morocco, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, UK, France, Alpine regions, Italy etc.

A pattern which has been common in this El Ninò with a strong Jet Streak into Northwest Spain and Portugal bringing a heightened flash flood risk and an overall Southerly tracking Jet.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Turkey being one of the main regions seeing huge snowfall amounts as multiple cut off lows move through with the 1st being part of a Rossby Wave Break Event which I've discussed in a few posts 

 

On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Over the next 10 days a large swathe of Turkey will recieve significant amounts of snow with an area particularly toward the Southeast likely to see upwards of 100+ CM

On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

As part of these rains - cut off low energy moves North Northeast this will bring a flash flood risk initially from East China into Japan 

 

On 19/03/2024 at 02:14, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

During Friday and into the Weekend a new system will move into the west coast with a new round of significant snowfall for the Sierras and the West > Northwestern States having a generally snowy & cold setup.

 

On 24/03/2024 at 19:27, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Impressive storm with significant snowfall with a few areas trending for particularly high totals

• South Dakatoa and Nebraska especially near their border
• As the low continues toward Lake Superior areas close to the Lake.

On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Per recent MJO progression feedback and IOBW warm phase this will continue a cold > significantly cold temperature setup extending across Australia  

 

On 23/03/2024 at 03:00, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

We also have a slow moving cyclone to the Northeast of Madagascar this will create a flash flood threat from Northeast Madagascar then extending across the Eastern portions of Madagascar.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Significant flash flood threat will develop across East and Southeast China as energies connecting to the MJO become slow moving troughing over this area likely Kelvin Wave - CCKW activities involved. This will extend into Taiwan and Japan.

With ongoing feedback of recent MJO progression the next cold air outbreaks are beginning with a classic representation of a Ridge-Trough-Ridge-Trough setup, these cold air outbreaks are developing across Asia and Russia with further significant snowfalls and significantly below average temperatures in areas affected during the last month roughly > Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Krgyzstan, North India, Nepal, Tibet, Southeast Kazakhstan. 

Also snow events along the Russia & Georgian border and Turkey.

Great representation of the MJO feedback as a high builds across East and Southeast USA and the cut off low into the Southwest as discussed previously.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Recapping this weeks events.

Scotland snow 

 

As the cyclone developed across Northwestern France there is damage indicative of a tornado 

 

 

As the system moved across Southwest England into Wales it produced a snow event as discussed.

 

 

Wind gusts from the main cyclone into Thursday reached 99kmh into the South Coast of England with an 89kmh value as the winds moved across Southeastern England.

On 24/03/2024 at 19:27, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Lots of areas with flash flood risks at lower elevations and many snowfall events predominantly at higher elevations though not exclusively.

Morocco, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, UK, France, Alpine regions, Italy etc.

A pattern which has been common in this El Ninò with a strong Jet Streak into Northwest Spain and Portugal bringing a heightened flash flood risk and an overall Southerly tracking Jet.

Looks like the strong Jet Streak has helped to produce what appears as a strong waterspout in Portugal  

 

No surprises seeing a Red warning covering Avalanche danger in the Alps of Switzerland and Spanish alpine regions with the plethora of huge snowfalls including the current event which will give totals upto and above 100CMs. Further snow events are likely during April week 1 and potentially afterward.

 

 

"The Southern Alps also experienced a new significant snow episode. This is also the 4th major snow episode in the space of five weeks . 50 centimeters of snow fell in the Isola 2000 resort . Since February 24, the accumulation of new snow has reached 2.76 meters at 1860 m altitude."

@Midlands Ice Age

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Active setups emerging in America and Europe with feedback of recent MJO progression and IMO very likely involving feedback of the Super El Ninò peak temperatures.

Starting in Europe we are seeing a highly above average temperature setup with records being broken and the first 30C recordings of the year across multiple days, again its not too surprising IMO given MJO and El Ninò feedback.

 

 

 

This will be the fuel for a potential storm system with anomalously high PWAT bringing a potentially significant wintry precip event along the Northwestern and Northern flanks.

America

On 24/03/2024 at 19:27, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Accompanying severe weather and flash flood threat progressing East, Northeast and Southeastwards with trends into a new low near the Carolinas coast into Thursday which might increase these threats.

 

On 24/03/2024 at 19:27, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Next cyclonic system moving into the Pacific Northwest and West Coast from Weds into Thursday bringing the next threat of low elevation flash flooding and the next snowfall event again high totals being signalled for the Sierras, this will transition into another system [cut off low] and move into SoCal during next weekend with low elevation flash flood threat and potential for snow at higher elevation.

 

On 28/03/2024 at 21:23, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Great representation of the MJO feedback as a high builds across East and Southeast USA and the cut off low into the Southwest as discussed previously.

As the cut off low energy connects to trough developments from Canada which is part of ongoing MJO feedback paired with the fuel from the aforementioned high across East and Southeast America this will give a setup conducive for a storm into Northeast States from now through April week 1. 

This is likely to become a snowy system on its Northwest and Northern flanks potentially significant totals.

The next potentially significant flash flood threat will also arrive with this system particularly north central states into Northeast states dependant on storm intensity and track with some discrepancies within modelling.

As the next cyclonic system moves from the Pacific Northwest into the West Coast this transitions into a Rossby Wave Break Event in roughly a weeks time April 6th - 7th with cut off lows on each American Coast and the ridging & blocking across Central America through Canada which will likely connect to the Greenland High.

This setup also gives a below average - significant in areas across the west and east with above average - significant central and Canada

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 28/03/2024 at 21:23, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Significant flash flood threat will develop across East and Southeast China as energies connecting to the MJO become slow moving troughing over this area likely Kelvin Wave - CCKW activities involved. This will extend into Taiwan and Japan.

This has occured via an extended severe weather outbreak, thoughts to all affected

 

 

 

 

 

 

On 31/03/2024 at 22:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

This will be the fuel for a potential storm system with anomalously high PWAT bringing a potentially significant wintry precip event along the Northwestern and Northern flanks.

 

On 28/03/2024 at 21:23, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Great representation of the MJO feedback as a high builds across East and Southeast USA and the cut off low into the Southwest as discussed previously.

This cut off low producing noteworthy low temperatures and rain

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 31/03/2024 at 22:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

As the cut off low energy connects to trough developments from Canada which is part of ongoing MJO feedback paired with the fuel from the aforementioned high across East and Southeast America this will give a setup conducive for a storm into Northeast States from now through April week 1. 

This is likely to become a snowy system on its Northwest and Northern flanks potentially significant totals.

Additional China Rainfall stats

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Though the MJO is moving through the Indian Ocean into the Maritimes at a lower amplitude than of late still some very noteworthy developments.

A low currently moving through Japan will see moisture inflow registering the highest anomalously wet PWAT values Fueled by a very strong Jet Streak

Following on an impressive Rossby Wave Break which connects to the MJO develops across the North Pacific with a cool sequence of cyclonic formation Northwest of Hawaii

Ongoing very snowy pattern across Alaska into the Pacific Northwest producing significantly below average temperatures at surface and upper levels with values upto 20C below average with multiple cold air plunges.

On 31/03/2024 at 22:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

As the next cyclonic system moves from the Pacific Northwest into the West Coast this transitions into a Rossby Wave Break Event in roughly a weeks time April 6th - 7th with cut off lows on each American Coast and the ridging & blocking across Central America through Canada which will likely connect to the Greenland High.

This setup also gives a below average - significant in areas across the west and east with above average - significant central and Canada

This Rossby Wave Break Event is transitioning into an ongoing significant flash flood threat which intensifies particularly though not exclusively toward the Gulf Coast States over the next few days.

Looks like another Rossby Wave Break Event is likely by next weekend though exact positions of cut off lows and high pressure TBD