Global interconnected weather - Model Output, Pattern Drivers plus Impact worldwide

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Huge thanks to @Blessed Weather + @Paul to give the green light in starting this thread

I know there are many who like the way I construct my posts in the model thread but apparently there have been a few who were less keen possibly with my coverage of the global setups as opposed to solely the weather impacts within the UK. 

This thread gives me the perfect opportunity to continue covering the widescale developing synoptics plus should be simple for those interested in how and what the Teleconnections are delivering at any given time period. 

Anyone who incorporates the teleconnective suite in their usual posts is very welcome to join in here

@Catacol @Tamara @Singularity @Matt H 

Right to get this thread running I'll lead on from my post here 

Starting over in the West Pacific quite a crazy scenario developing with potentially 5 typhoons

I'm seeing a legit opportunity of witnessing the Fujiwhara effect

Fujiwhara Effect

WWW.DRISHTIIAS.COM

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The Fujiwhara Effect is any interaction between tropical storms formed around the same time in the same ocean region with their centres or eyes at a distance of less than 1,400 km, with intensity that...

Amazing output

We've had discussions throughout twitter of a developing CAG > Central American Gyre. I know of this Monsoon type feature but haven't researched so can't comment really though the chat is this is very early for a CAG appearing and it's certainly an intriguing pattern in that region which plays a crucial part in a big feature of the next 5 days roughly

Can clearly watch as the moist atmosphere shifts north aids in the process of the next system into the Gulf Of Mexico 

For me a key component in such an anomalous pattern lies in the MJO which has behaved quite oddly

 

Currently we have phase 8 setting up 

 

Very rare having the MJO going from phase 8-1-8 we SHOULD have a progression that goes anti-clockwise across the phase diagram yes it can occur at slower pace and alternate in amplitude within a phase but seeing what is basically a reversal of the traditional MJO trajectory is pretty baffling, having a continuation across Africa will bring further opportunities with Tropical waves firing here

 

'Looking over to the EPAC quite a pronounced tropical wave ongoing which sees a new system by Saturday>Sunday which develops more-so by early- mid stage next week"

 

Phase 1 already showing its hand through weeks 1-2 of September which fits with my expectation of the coming MJO cycle emerging with this.

 

 

 

[Blessed Weather]

I hope the thread goes well KW - it has the potential to be an extremely interesting topic. As we discussed, it provides somewhere to discuss model output and teleconnections from a global perspective, with analysis into the various interconnected upstream and downstream drivers and impacts that result in 'weather' anywhere around the world. I'll certainly try to contribute from time-to-time.

Btw, love the animated chart of African Easterly Waves moving out into the Atlantic - they can be a rich source of major Atlantic Hurricanes in a typical year as they go on to develop over the warm waters.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

By Tues - Weds we'll see a dramatic setup with opportunity for two simultaneous Major hurricanes in Franklin and Idalia, 

certainly Franklin will get that status as I've mentioned he always looked to become an appealing system 

Idalia currently going Franklin esque with a huge convective burst 

Already exhibiting rare characteristics 

An upward trend of category guidance wouldn't be a shock especially as she takes advantage of the warmer than average GOM SSTs. 

If I'm making a call of an early landfall location definitely seeing that area from Steinhatchee towards Cedar Key though obviously enough time for slight adjustment 

EXTREMELY CONCERNING 

There are multiple worrying flood scenarios (I expect yet more records under threat too) including an event into Nova Scotia

Edited August 28, 2023 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[lottiekent]

This is a great idea; I’m so interested in how these events are linked and/or their downstream effects so this is an excellent thread.

[Chesil View]

Great idea KW. Will drop in regularly especially during the upcoming winter.

[Blessed Weather]

Just a quick post about the severe weather that's hitting the Mediterranean countries, starting yesterday (Sun 27th Aug) and set to continue for the next few days. In summary the Azores High is positioned far enough west to allow a southerly plunge and significant kink to form in the meandering Jet Stream which seems to bear all the hallmarks of a Rossby Wave Break. The resultant cool northerly flow - in particular the Mistral wind funnelling down the Rhone Valley of France - has interacted with the currently very warm waters of the Med to produce an intense area of low pressure with strong winds and heavy rain.

Jet Stream and 500hPa pressure anomaly from 08.00 Sunday to 20.00 Monday:

The animation for Potential Vorticity at 1.5PVU high in the atmosphere also indicating a Rossby Wave Break. This sequence for the same time frame:

The low pressure just hitting the west coast of Italy by 14.00 on Monday:

Current Mediterranean SSTs at 28C, which have hit an all-time high this summer:

Source: https://www.surf-forecast.com/current-maps/United-Kingdom/sea-surface-temperatures

And finally some related interesting news articles:

Mediterranean Sea breaks new heat record: What does this mean for weather in Europe?
Extreme weather across Europe could extend into autumn spurred by record-high sea temperatures.

Heavy storms hit southern Europe causing huge disruption
Strong winds and heavy rains have hit Spain and Italy causing widespread flooding and major disruption. The weather is part of a violent storm which broke out on Sunday morning, blowing down numerous trees, causing flash flooding and damaging a bullring in the town of Felanitx.

Spain Slammed With Strong Winds In Mediterranean Storm
Strong winds and heavy rains slammed Spain on its Mediterranean coast on Sunday, including the touristic Balearic archipelago, causing serious damage and flight disruptions. Gusts of up to 120 kilometres per hour (75 miles per hour), downpours and hail hit the Balearic islands as well as Catalonia and Valencia on mainland Spain, which were all under a high-risk warning by the national meteorological agency Aemet.

P&O Britannia cruise ship crashes during Mallorca storms
A cruise ship broke free from moorings and collided with a freight vessel during a storm in Mallorca, Spain.

Edit: Just to add the very heavy rainfall associated with the above system. A 2021 research paper shows that Rossby wave breaking is associated with >90 % of extreme precipitation events over the Mediterranean.

Cumulative precip to Sun to Tues 29Aug 20.00:

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

18 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

If I'm making a call of an early landfall location definitely seeing that area from Steinhatchee towards Cedar Key though obviously enough time for slight adjustment 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Super unique setup here. 

3 main development regions

• Developing trough with Atmospheric river conditions in Nova Scotia
• Franklin
• Idalia

One of the main questions which will go right to the wire is can Idalia achieve Cat 3 status ie major strength, there will be a period of rapid cyclogenis not far off making landfall. 

Why?

Idalia will get a boost of energy as some separation occurs within the trough to her north 

 

Leading on this leads to a significant RWB event which includes remnant energies of Franklin

On 28/08/2023 at 02:07, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

If I'm making a call of an early landfall location definitely seeing that area from Steinhatchee towards Cedar Key though obviously enough time for slight adjustment 

I expect this will be one of the highest impact regions 

 

Steinhatchee continues to jump out as a key area here

 

Regardless of exact eye location another piece of history coming in

Eyebrow raising scenario which will occur following Idalias move offshore.

She will be sitting pretty much in the zone Franklin resides ATM which is unusual in its own right but possibilities for redevelopment and a complete curving track re entering Florida [maybe the Carolina coast] 

This is highly influenced by the high pressure that sets in to her north looks as if there's a localised retrogression pattern 

Superb data this from the GEM also gives more insight to the emerging tropical waves > Africa and the GEM keen on further activities into the EPAC

 

[Summer tyre]

Great topic, and fascinating global view. Can I ask about the track of Franklin? It looks to me as though almost every model takes it straight over Bermuda. Is that the case, and if so will Idalia follow it? That could be quite the apocalpse if so.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Loving your work @Kirkcaldy Weatherand this thread I can learn a lot from.  Very interesting about the tropical storm developments too.   

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

8 hours ago, Summer tyre said:

Great topic, and fascinating global view. Can I ask about the track of Franklin? It looks to me as though almost every model takes it straight over Bermuda. Is that the case, and if so will Idalia follow it? That could be quite the apocalpse if so.

Cheers

New data keeps the highest impacts outwith Bermuda

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 69.4 West. Franklin is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Franklin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). NOAA Buoy 41048, located a few hundred miles west of Bermuda, recently reported a sustained wind of 83 mph (133 km/h) and a gust of 101 mph (162 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 28/08/2023 at 02:07, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

If I'm making a call of an early landfall location definitely seeing that area from Steinhatchee towards Cedar Key though obviously enough time for slight adjustment 

 

20 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Steinhatchee continues to jump out as a key area here

 

20 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

One of the main questions which will go right to the wire is can Idalia achieve Cat 3 status ie major strength, there will be a period of rapid cyclogenis not far off making landfall. 

Why?

Idalia will get a boost of energy as some separation occurs within the trough to her north 

 

My first ever shot at an eye landfall Forecast I'm extremely chuffed with this especially at 2 plus days out as Idalia was yet to develop 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 28/08/2023 at 02:07, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Tues - Weds we'll see a dramatic setup with opportunity for two simultaneous Major hurricanes in Franklin and Idalia, 

Pretty excellent performance with the GFS given how unique and rare this pattern is, it remained steadfast with the outlook whereas i know the ECM continually adjusted NW with Idalia.

Save these for historical reference folks ... stunning 

 

Next serious concerns with Idalia is flash flooding and equally a unique high end tor setup in the Carolinas

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Rain All Night]

@Paul Any chance you could implement spoiler tags so that KW's embedded Tweets could be folded away by default? It would make this thread easier to consume and less taxing on the browser app

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 28/08/2023 at 02:07, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

EXTREMELY CONCERNING 

There are multiple worrying flood scenarios (I expect yet more records under threat too) including an event into Nova Scotia

On 29/08/2023 at 17:34, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Steinhatchee continues to jump out as a key area here

 

[Eagle Eye]

Well, as we get closer to Winter (I can dream). The tropical forcings  become very interesting. The blocking signals will be increasingly important. Just thought I'd talk a bit about some of them.

The Uralian omega block is typically forced by MJO signals we don't like here if I remember correctly, it's been a while. It's a Rossby wave which can tilt the Stratosphere in our favour however. It's a large driver of upwards coupling with increasing Eddy vector strength. Almost everything in the atmosphere is transferred through heat signals driven by waves. The Siberian high and Aleutian low is a very good signal you want to drive significant Stratospheric change with wavebreaking. That wavebreaking could well then force it's way down to the surface depending on the zonal winds.  Then there's also the Scandinavian high. The Alaskan high can work but I seem to remember being told that doesn't typically end up too well for us. Greenland doesn't seem to be as big of a forcing factor recently but it can be (2010 I think?).

Most of us then know to look out for the Greenland high and Scandinavian blocking. For that we know that we want +VE AAM and favourable MJO conditions. Then a bit of luck as well. 

So that's the basics getting ready for Winter. They'll be a lot more to talk about closer to time though.

In Autumn, there is the added complication of Hurricanes to forecast intraglobally. I'm better at long-term forecasting unless it's thunderstorm forecasting pretty much. So, I'll just talk about what I know. Using CCKW's to forecast, you can help visualise the redistribution of the 'energy' from MJO wave production for Kelvin-Rossby wave phasing forecasting. Late Autumn is when we start getting interested mostly on how any Hurricanes will affect us.

Hurricanes are most likely to form in the Atlantic with an easterly African wave and strengthen properly when it meets a CCKW. These can be identified with VP anomalies. Typical formation is post westerly VP anomalies and the start of easterly VP anomalies. So, these will become more interesting towards the end of Autumn when the Kelvin-Rossby interactions increase. There's lots of possibilities in how they interact and you'll probably have to use the tropical-extratropical interactions map and your imagination to give you the best guidelines for future forecasting at that point.

A big positive right now is that, the QBO appears to be descending properly into easterly at the right time. Which is a good sign at the moment for cold lovers though we'll have to take into account a lot more teleconnections closer to time and I don't think the QBO is as big of a forcing as some people seem to think.

[Rain All Night]

6 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Well, as we get closer to Winter (I can dream). The tropical forcings  become very interesting. The blocking signals will be increasingly important. Just thought I'd talk a bit about some of them.

The Uralian omega block is typically forced by MJO signals we don't like here if I remember correctly, it's been a while. It's a Rossby wave which can tilt the Stratosphere in our favour however. It's a large driver of upwards coupling with increasing Eddy vector strength. Almost everything in the atmosphere is transferred through heat signals driven by waves. The Siberian high and Aleutian low is a very good signal you want to drive significant Stratospheric change with wavebreaking. That wavebreaking could well then force it's way down to the surface depending on the zonal winds.  Then there's also the Scandinavian high. The Alaskan high can work but I seem to remember being told that doesn't typically end up too well for us. Greenland doesn't seem to be as big of a forcing factor recently but it can be (2010 I think?).

Most of us then know to look out for the Greenland high and Scandinavian blocking. For that we know that we want +VE AAM and favourable MJO conditions. Then a bit of luck as well. 

So that's the basics getting ready for Winter. They'll be a lot more to talk about closer to time though.

In Autumn, there is the added complication of Hurricanes to forecast intraglobally. I'm better at long-term forecasting unless it's thunderstorm forecasting pretty much. So, I'll just talk about what I know. Using CCKW's to forecast, you can help visualise the redistribution of the 'energy' from MJO wave production for Kelvin-Rossby wave phasing forecasting. Late Autumn is when we start getting interested mostly on how any Hurricanes will affect us.

Hurricanes are most likely to form in the Atlantic with an easterly African wave and strengthen properly when it meets a CCKW. These can be identified with VP anomalies. Typical formation is post westerly VP anomalies and the start of easterly VP anomalies. So, these will become more interesting towards the end of Autumn when the Kelvin-Rossby interactions increase. There's lots of possibilities in how they interact and you'll probably have to use the tropical-extratropical interactions map and your imagination to give you the best guidelines for future forecasting at that point.

A big positive right now is that, the QBO appears to be descending properly into easterly at the right time. Which is a good sign at the moment for cold lovers though we'll have to take into account a lot more teleconnections closer to time and I don't think the QBO is as big of a forcing as some people seem to think.

Great to hear from you, and hope you're well

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 26/08/2023 at 20:39, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Starting over in the West Pacific quite a crazy scenario developing with potentially 5 typhoons

Typhoons Kirogi and Haikui are also approaching China's southern and...

FB.WATCH

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Typhoons Kirogi and Haikui are also approaching China's southern and eastern coasts. Due to the impact of the three typhoon systems, high winds and heavy...

DAMREY,HAIKUI,KIROGI & SAOLA

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

19 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Nailing a Rossby Wave Break Event from 330 plus hours out I'll take that everyday

Ps this CFS+GFS combo I've incorporated has become an absolute dream so props to both these models too

Anyone wanting to learn dynamics to watch in association with cut off lows you'll struggle to get a cleaner example 

 

We get a great insight to the conditions present as above average temps set in through the UK, France and Scandinavia with equally huge cold anomalous temperatures in Spain dropping through Northwest / North Africa

I'm focusing on 2 areas especially 

• Severe Flood Threat >>> Spain
• Rare 594 dam tongue extends into Southern UK through France into the low countries 

 

Not far away from a full negatively tilted trough which are common Severe weather scenarios in America. There's mega shear and likely enough of a pivot to give a genuine tornado threat especially on the Eastern + Southeastern quadrant which interestingly is a common feature of tropical cyclones.

The most severe conditions will begin overnight Saturday and persist all day Sunday, there is likely to be a zone where a strong region of a Jet streak sets up with current data suggesting this area near to MADRID in a high flood zone 

 

The ludicrous PWAT continues to hone in around Madrid 

 

Here's where I expect the FLASH FLOOD KINEMATICS TO BE MAXIMISING 

 

Add in the Swathe of damage on the Eastern - Southeast quadrant with maximising dynamic supercellular development is also a prominent concern 

 

PLEASE INFORM ANYONE YOU KNOW THAT LIVE IN SPAIN PARTICULARLY THE ZONES WITHIN MY POST

THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST HIGH END SETUPS FOR SIGNIFICANT IMAPCTS YOU CAN GET, NO SCAREMONGERING I AM HOPEFULLY GIVING HELPFUL INFO WHICH COULD BE LIFE SAVING, THANKS

Still remaining on course and if anything a rather concerning sign with a waterspout - tornado ALREADY this is before the prime conditions which will come in by tonight 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

HIGHEST TIER WARNINGS NOW ISSUED AGAIN MADRID A KEY FOCAL AREA

7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

current data suggesting this area near to MADRID in a high flood zone 

7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Here's where I expect the FLASH FLOOD KINEMATICS TO BE MAXIMISING 

 

 

 

[jonboy]

Real Madrid have refurbished their stadium which includes a retractable roof . First home game last night was played with it closed because of the intensity of the rain 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Jeeeez MOIST or what

 

[alexisj9]

I swear Europe must hate a UK high, in may June they had storms and floods, same now.