Global interconnected weather - Model Output, Pattern Drivers plus Impact worldwide

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

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[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Just now, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Wanted to do a longer post and look into just how severe and extreme the past few weeks have been. 

A lot of the years that the past few weeks of cold anomalies are comparable with are among the top analogues from my winter outlook 

Starting with the UK and European countries such as France. The peak of cold conditions appear to have been during January 18th > 19th, I took the following screenshot during early hours of the 19th as a bit of a reference, credit coolwx

How coolwx works is by displaying the following values

Many of the values were around 50 or so years in Magnitude though there could very well have been some which surpassed this.

 

 

 

 

 

CANADA AND USA

There are numerous states in which the January 2024 records are comparable with some of the coldest winter weather events in recorded history like 1947 and 1962/1963 and other extreme events such as February 2021 and February/ March 2018 and December 2022.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One of the most noteable records here as it breaks the prior record by quite a large amount 2.9C and thats a weekly period too

 

These too

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

The initial process of cut off low development has delivered impressive rainfall records in California and Arizona

 

 

 

 

And significant snow in higher terrain / Sierras

 

 

As this initial cut off low gradually moves further east there's a number of impactful conditions on the way over the next week and heading into the start of February.

Over the next couple of days we'll have a significant flash flood threat focusing in across the Gulf and more southern States.

 

 

 

As the cut off low(s) [troughing] gradually progresses east and in connection with more of a classical +PNA setup we'll have a system which has potential of becoming a potentially disruptive snowstorm into Northeast America, I'm expectant of this during the 28th - 30th of January 

 

 

 

 

During the last days of January I'm watching another cut off low development across the East Pacific which heads into Mexico, whether it takes on any tropical characteristics we'll see.

The energy of that cut off low development will link to further Pacific trough developments in connection with recent MJO phase influences and the MJO being active within the Pacific during this timeframe.

From the last days of Jan through week 1 of Feb this will have a significantly wet anomaly for California up the US west coast into the Pacific Northwest and moving into the Southwest States and Mexico. Some of the precip will fall as snow in higher terrains such as the Sierras.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

On 23/01/2024 at 18:12, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

As the cut off low(s) [troughing] gradually progresses east and in connection with more of a classical +PNA setup we'll have a system which has potential of becoming a potentially disruptive snowstorm into Northeast America, I'm expectant of this during the 28th - 30th of January 

Excellent

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Models did become confident on Newfoundland doing particularly well from this snowstorm 

 

On 23/01/2024 at 18:12, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

From the last days of Jan through week 1 of Feb this will have a significantly wet anomaly for California up the US west coast into the Pacific Northwest and moving into the Southwest States and Mexico. Some of the precip will fall as snow in higher terrains such as the Sierras.

We'll see 2 simultaneous cyclones bringing an increased liklihood of flash flooding, as the first which is currently coming into the west coast begins to traverse southeastwards it brings a significant flash flood threat into the Gulf States and we get our classic El Ninò setup / appearance.

With the Gulf cyclone I expect significant flash flood impacts between February 3rd and February 9th with this gradually moving east Northeast, might be a chance for a transition from rain to wintry precip - snow on the northwest flank as the cyclone approches the Carolina coast however this could also remain just offshore.

Some extreme amounts currently shown for Feb 4th somewhere in Louisianna such as Pilottown etc

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

As the Gulf Cyclone moved east northeast it produced a plethora of tornadic supercells with a significant tor in Valdosta Georgia 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Longer post showing the dynamics at play leading into week 2 of February [and beyond]

Starting with developments for the rest of February week 1 into the start of week 2 as mentioned in my post here 

 

"I do expect we'll have the PNA getting more into a negative setup during week 1 of Feb into the first part of week 2 with feedback of MJO phase 6"

'With the influence of more of a -PNA paired to MJO phase 6 I'd not be shocked seeing potential for a storm as the associated troughing crosses the UK between February 8th > 12th''

To understand the dynamics at play for the next major event for the UK / Ireland we need to look at events which have taken place over in Newfoundland and in particular Nova Scotia

 

 

 

 

This is the same cyclone which will come into the UK and Ireland through the February 8th - 12th period.

The influencing section of the Jet Stream for this system can be tracked from the Caribbean Island Chain into Portugal and the UK

On the Northern and Northwest flanks of the snowstorm we'll have the potential for significant amounts of snow, I wouldn't be one bit shocked seeing areas within the region of a foot of snow perhaps a bit more with current signals of these totals into the Pennines perhaps parts of Scotland, Ireland also a possible area of Northern Wales.

 

"Also increased threat of flash flooding into Portugal and extending across southern Europe in association with an increasingly strengthening Jet Stream in this region also within that timeframe."

As southern parts of the UK remain in a milder sector of the storm and connected to the section of the Jet Stream mentioned above the flash flood risk could extend into England perhaps Wales with a chance of thunderstorms. This flash flood threat looks to also move into Morocco places such as Casablanca and Rabat with some snow as it moves further inland.

During this timeframe we also see the Maritimes High extending into the US East Coast feedback from the trend to more of a negative PNA and MJO phases 5 and particularly 6

As the UK storm and associated troughing gradually moves East it will see quite a rapid weakening as an increasingly strengthening area of high pressure begins to develop further to it's east. This will force the trough energy southwards and this becomes a cut off low into Italy and the Adriatic, Inonian and Mediterranean also regions a bit east of here.

This leads into my discussions from my post here

 

"Looking to the 2nd and latter half of February with the MJO currently being in a phase 7 for the last days of January This gives the following feedback

From my post on Thursday which is linked above 

''With continuing phase 6 starting to transition into phase 7 and pairing to a re emerging and strengthening +PNA as we get toward and past Mid February there will be lots of tantalising charts''

During this timeframe we'll also see a VERY impressive negative Arctic Oscillation with values perhaps exceeding those which preceeded the severe cold outbreaks of December 2023 and January 2024.

 

During February week 2 the 500hpa setups will begin to retrograde taking us into the MJO phase 7 patterns with a retrograding trough moving Southwest through Scandinavia and potential for further snowstorms toward Nova Scotia - Newfoundland and from Canada > Maritimes through Northern and Northeast America, also developments in line with the +PNA of cyclonic systems from the Gulf remain a possibility.

Full sequence 

Also during week 3 of February the ongoing stratospheric warming looks set to keep intensifying with possibilities for a 2nd reversal of zonal winds this winter

I first discussed the liklihood of stratospheric warming in my post here

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Lovely patterns in line with the teleconnections continuing to materialise with a great setup for some significant snowy cyclonic developments from February 11th through at least 1 week thereafter as low pressure from southwestern America / Mexico moves Northeastwards with a track as mentioned previously through Northern and Northeast America and particularly Newfoundland and Nova Scotia

Heading through week 3 of February remains the next significant setup for potential wintry conditions with a building high in Greenland and retrograding Scandinavian trough as energy connections begin with the trough in the Atlantic 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

Gonna be a fascinating watch this, on the southern end we've got another significant flash flood risk spanning multiple days and states (plus further potential tornadic events) even into the Carolinas with many possible outcomes with regards to snow along the Northwest and northern flanks with the GFS going all in on a major event into Northeast states

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 23/01/2024 at 18:12, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

From the last days of Jan through week 1 of Feb this will have a significantly wet anomaly for California up the US west coast into the Pacific Northwest and moving into the Southwest States and Mexico. Some of the precip will fall as snow in higher terrains such as the Sierras.

Yeah just a tad anomalous 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Numerous high wind gusts particularly in mountain regions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

These high rain and snow amounts haven't been all bad news though with a needed boost for reservoirs and some snowpacks running a few months ahead of usual 

 

 

Arizona getting very impressive amounts in this setup

 

 

 

 

On 06/02/2024 at 14:34, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Also increased threat of flash flooding into Portugal and extending across southern Europe in association with an increasingly strengthening Jet Stream in this region also within that timeframe."

As southern parts of the UK remain in a milder sector of the storm and connected to the section of the Jet Stream mentioned above the flash flood risk could extend into England perhaps Wales with a chance of thunderstorms. This flash flood threat looks to also move into Morocco places such as Casablanca and Rabat with some snow as it moves further inland.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

 

 

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"With a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation there will be cold outbreaks within the Northern Hemisphere and given these are stronger values than both previous events I wouldnt be surprised if the conditions are also a bit colder overall."

Here comes one of those cold outbreaks as a high from Canada moves southwards which can be seen with the MJO phase 7 data

Impressive temperature anomalies associated with this even into Texas and Mexico, will we see record cold I certainly wouldn't rule out records being tied / broken in some areas.

As the very active El Ninò setups continue we've also got a snowmaking system heading through the Great Lakes possibly giving a top up into the Northeast too, and another dual cyclonic setup with further flash flood risks in California, Pacific Northwest, Gulf States particularly Florida and into the Caribbean. Further significant snow for the Sierras also.

The southwards moving Canadian high will transition toward the typical -PNA and influence from MJO phase 6, this currently looks to occur by February 20th with strength and duration of the high TBD.

 

Across the other end of the Northern Hemisphere we see a 2nd Cold air outbreak which will descend across Asia bringing significant > extreme cold anomalies and significant > extreme snow.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

 

 

On 08/02/2024 at 21:01, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Lovely patterns in line with the teleconnections continuing to materialise with a great setup for some significant snowy cyclonic developments from February 11th through at least 1 week thereafter as low pressure from southwestern America / Mexico moves Northeastwards with a track as mentioned previously through Northern and Northeast America and particularly Newfoundland and Nova Scotia

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

As the MJO influence from the Pacific moves East across South America this will give a boost to cyclonic development which *could have potential historic impacts. 

Upon doing some research there has only ever been 1 cyclone to reach hurricane strength classification in this region of the South Atlantic which was cyclone / Hurricane Catarina in March 2004.

 

Hurricane Catarina - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

Though there are also questions re prior cyclones before Catarina 

"Theories concerning infrequency of occurrence[edit]

It was initially thought that tropical cyclones did not develop within the South Atlantic.[1] Very strong vertical wind shear in the troposphere is considered a deterrent.[2] The Intertropical Convergence Zone drops one to two degrees south of the equator,[3] not far enough from the equator for the Coriolis force to significantly aid development. Water temperatures in the tropics of the southern Atlantic are cooler than those in the tropical north Atlantic.[4]

Although they are rare, during April 1991 the United States' National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that a tropical cyclone had developed over the Eastern South Atlantic.[1][5] In subsequent years, a few systems were suspected to have the characteristics needed to be classified as a tropical cyclone, including in March 1994 and January 2004.[6][7] During March 2004, an extratropical cyclone formally transitioned into a tropical cyclone and made landfall on Brazil, after becoming a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. While the system was threatening the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina, a newspaper used the headline "Furacão Catarina", which was originally presumed to mean "furacão (hurricane) threatening (Santa) Catarina (the state)".[1] After international presses started monitoring the system, "Hurricane Catarina" has formally been adopted.

At the Sixth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI) in 2006, it was questioned if any subtropical or tropical cyclones had developed within the South Atlantic before Catarina.[7] It was noted that suspect systems had developed in January 1970, March 1994, January 2004, March 2004, May 2004, February 2006, and March 2006.[7] It was also suggested that an effort should be made to locate any possible systems using satellite imagery and synoptic data; however, it was noted that this effort may be hindered by the lack of any geostationary imagery over the basin before 1966.[7] A study was subsequently performed and published during 2012, which concluded that there had been 63 subtropical cyclones in the Southern Atlantic between 1957 and 2007.[8] During January 2009, a subtropical storm developed in the basin, and in March 2010, a tropical storm developed, which was named Anita by the Brazilian public and private weather services.[9][10] In 2011, the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center started to assign names to tropical and subtropical cyclones that develop within its area of responsibility, to the west of 20°W, when they have sustained wind speeds of at least 65 km/h (40 mph).[11]"

South Atlantic tropical cyclone - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Both the ICON and GFS currently model this cyclone intensifying to 988hpa and 987hpa respectively 

Other models such as the GEM are much more Conservative 

GFS 06z also trended less intense 

None of the models currently go for a landfall however this cannot be ruled out.

ECM 00z perilously close to a landfall 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Another system running through over the next few days giving further accumulations stretching into the Northeast and I'm closely watching the systems which have been consistently showing in roughly 1 weeks time around the 22nd - 26th as somewhere in the Northeast could get significant totals from these though exact track still causing discrepancies.